Fed Watch

Current Fed Funds Target: 3.75% · Next FOMC: 2026-04-29

Upcoming FOMC Meetings — Rate-Move Probabilities

Probabilities derived from Fed Funds futures (/ZQ) using the Fed Watch methodology. Each contract settles at 100 − average EFFR for the contract month. For months containing an FOMC meeting, the implied post-meeting rate is backed out by day-weighting against the pre-meeting rate (chained forward from current EFFR).

>25bp cut 25bp cut Hold 25bp hike >25bp hike
Meeting Contract Implied Avg EFFR Pre-Meeting Rate Post-Meeting Rate Change Probabilities
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Implied EFFR Forward Curve

Implied post-meeting EFFR across upcoming FOMC meetings. Compare the shape against the current rate to see where the market is pricing cuts or hikes.

/ZQ Strip Snapshot

Raw monthly /ZQ Fed Funds futures contracts streaming from Schwab.

Contract Month Last Bid Ask Implied EFFR Volume
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