Frenzy Capital — Live Market Snapshot & Analysis

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AI Market Analysis
AI Analysis Generated: Apr 29, 2026 06:00 AMLive Data
🌅 Pre-Market Overview

The OpenAI shock is doing what it's supposed to do—force a reckoning in the AI narrative. Yesterday's selloff in semiconductor and mega-cap tech stocks was real pain, but this morning's futures action reveals the market is parsing the damage with surgical precision: Nasdaq futures are modestly positive while the Dow and S&P 500 are essentially flat, suggesting traders are distinguishing between genuine AI-infrastructure winners and the crowded names that got ahead of themselves. Energy's explosive overnight move—crude up nearly four percent—is the real story underneath, likely driven by geopolitical tension (the stalled Iran ceasefire talks) colliding with inventory concerns. This is risk-on behavior masquerading as caution; the market is rotating into rate-sensitive reopeners and energy while nibbling back into tech on any dips ahead of the Fed decision. That's not panic—that's seasoned repositioning.

The cross-asset picture confirms we're in a "prove it" mode, not a capitulation. Treasuries are marginally softer across the curve, hardly the haven bid you'd see in genuine risk-off, while precious metals are getting hammered—gold and platinum down sharply—as the dollar strengthens and real rates hold their ground. Bitcoin and ether are both up meaningfully, which tells you that speculative capital is still flowing despite the AI setback; crypto is pricing in Fed cuts or at minimum a pause, not crisis. The Russell 2000 sitting flat while large-cap tech limps and energy soars says the market is hedging between a growth slowdown narrative and an inflation-via-energy scenario. Traders want the Fed to blink, and they're betting the OpenAI story kills the case for more hikes even if energy prices disagree.

⚠️ Risks & Opportunities

• Nasdaq futures up 0.21% while S&P 500 dead flat signals tech mega-cap rotation risk at the open—the market is pricing in a Fed hold today but bracing for hawkish forward guidance, and Mag 7 earnings will determine whether that premium sticks or collapses into the close.

• Oil surging +3.6% while gold crashes -0.89% and real yields are bid (10Y yields down only -10bps despite equity strength) screams stagflationary pressure, not risk-on: energy sector leading into the FOMC is a red flag that markets are hedging policy disappointment.

• Russell 2000 flat and Dow down -0.08% while Nasdaq outperforms is a dual warning—small caps are in correction territory and liquidity is consolidating into mega-cap tech, which means breadth is already broken ahead of what could be a volatile FOMC decision.

• Crypto bid hard (Bitcoin +1.85%, Ethereum +1.77%) despite equity indexes treading water signals hedge fund and retail repositioning into uncorrelated assets ahead of the 2pm ET FOMC announcement; expect violent reversals if Powell signals tighter-for-longer.

• Advance GDP and Core PCE tomorrow (4/30) are the true market-moving catalysts—today's Fed decision is a formality, but forward guidance combined with tomorrow's inflation print will either validate this rally or expose it as a liquidity-driven mirage.

• Trade the open cautiously: tech-heavy Nasdaq likely pops 0.3–0.5% at bell on positioning flow into earnings, but breadth capitulation (down sectors outweighing up sectors 5-to-1) means any Fed hawkishness this afternoon will gap the entire market 100+ handles lower into the close.


📰 Referenced News Articles

S&P 500:

Dow Jones:

NASDAQ-100:

Russell 2000:

Sector Performance
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Options Flow Sentiment
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Movers — Apr 28, 2026
Top Gainers
Symbol Price Change Change % Rel Volume Market Cap ($B)
Biggest Losers
Symbol Price Change Change % Rel Volume Market Cap ($B)
Pre-Market Gainers
Symbol Price Change Change % Market Cap ($B)
BBBY7.20+1.86+34.83%0.41
OMCL46.31+8.68+23.07%1.70
KFRC39.43+7.42+23.18%0.59
DDI10.84+1.65+17.93%0.44
BBIO84.22+9.70+13.02%14.21
SEI79.55+8.92+12.62%4.21
RVMD146.46+14.79+11.23%28.61
KNSA48.41+4.80+11.01%3.27
SAFX0.41+0.04+12.43%0.10
CVLT96.96+8.55+9.67%4.13
PKX77.40+6.38+8.98%21.22
CV6.98+0.61+9.58%0.30
LGIH49.38+4.06+8.96%1.05
SANM203.00+14.92+7.93%10.49
NAUT2.80+0.23+8.95%0.33
AVR6.15+0.49+8.66%0.54
ATLN1.74+0.14+8.75%0.13
ELVR94.79+6.75+7.67%1.46
JLHL11.00+0.85+8.37%0.21
LC18.44+1.26+7.33%2.02
DGNX3.81+0.29+8.21%0.11
CMPX1.92+0.13+7.26%0.91
AXGN42.08+2.69+6.83%2.04
ASUR9.70+0.64+7.06%0.26
THR57.20+3.09+5.71%1.78
KRC34.50+1.78+5.44%3.72
RYDE1.05+0.06+6.06%0.16
TFII145.00+6.67+4.82%11.42
ALMS26.01+1.26+5.09%3.17
IX33.00+1.45+4.60%33.39
KEN88.10+4.19+4.99%4.26
CECO68.25+3.33+5.13%2.33
REAX2.13+0.11+5.45%0.57
JBIO28.23+1.38+5.14%1.23
BWLP19.70+0.92+4.90%2.82
KO78.45+3.02+4.00%329.83
RAMP31.05+1.43+4.83%1.85
CR191.16+8.15+4.45%10.40
LFST7.61+0.34+4.68%2.73
THRY3.98+0.20+5.29%0.15
DLNG4.12+0.21+5.27%0.14
CLYM9.97+0.47+4.95%0.44
CANG0.43+0.02+5.13%0.17
DT37.10+1.49+4.18%10.53
LBRX33.30+1.49+4.68%0.88
AVY171.80+6.82+4.13%12.73
CCEP99.91+3.76+3.91%43.53
CTOS9.17+0.39+4.44%1.98
MFG8.58+0.31+3.75%98.88
OLN27.99+1.16+4.32%3.05
LAW4.54+0.21+4.85%0.26
KREF6.15+0.27+4.59%0.39
RCKT3.64+0.15+4.30%0.38
KLTR1.52+0.06+4.11%0.19
TTE91.41+2.67+3.01%191.29
VRA4.22+0.17+4.20%0.11
GTLB22.20+0.75+3.50%3.66
CNC44.91+1.41+3.24%20.57
LCTX1.61+0.06+3.87%0.39
KOPN3.85+0.14+3.74%0.66
ORKA79.00+2.61+3.42%3.47
PFE27.55+0.76+2.84%153.59
IMDX3.99+0.15+3.88%0.12
SMFG20.92+0.57+2.80%128.54
NGEN3.99+0.14+3.64%0.32
NGNE28.00+0.95+3.51%0.42
SKYX1.06+0.04+3.72%0.14
WTI3.91+0.13+3.44%0.57
TG9.83+0.33+3.47%0.33
FANG201.79+5.37+2.73%54.80
EM1.20+0.04+3.45%0.29
KOS3.02+0.09+3.16%1.67
CSIQ14.37+0.45+3.23%0.96
TONX2.34+0.08+3.54%0.13
GLOO6.86+0.22+3.29%0.55
XYL126.85+3.34+2.70%29.25
DHX2.66+0.09+3.50%0.12
EQ2.11+0.07+3.43%0.14
KGEI5.84+0.19+3.36%0.19
AXG4.28+0.13+3.13%0.74
NPKI16.56+0.49+3.05%1.27
WVE7.15+0.21+3.03%1.35
GKOS125.48+3.41+2.79%7.11
RDZN1.51+0.05+3.42%0.11
VTIX3.69+0.12+3.32%0.13
CDP33.23+0.91+2.82%3.64
BALY13.28+0.39+3.03%0.62
TRAK9.24+0.29+3.24%0.15
USAC27.51+0.73+2.73%3.99
MAS76.13+1.89+2.55%14.96
PGEN4.07+0.11+2.78%1.46
UHS184.00+4.49+2.50%10.64
MTDR62.74+1.55+2.53%7.51
PUMP17.67+0.46+2.67%2.08
SHEL88.80+1.89+2.17%248.82
MGTX9.38+0.25+2.74%0.85
CHRD141.05+3.36+2.44%7.67
APA39.34+0.91+2.37%13.33
FBYD17.50+0.46+2.70%0.75
ACIU2.92+0.08+2.82%0.29
HUMA0.83+0.02+2.85%0.16
OPRA17.34+0.43+2.54%1.55
DBX24.48+0.57+2.38%5.73
DMLP28.86+0.71+2.52%1.36
WLK113.70+2.51+2.26%14.17
E54.90+1.13+2.10%79.57
PARR65.90+1.55+2.41%3.18
WDAY120.39+2.56+2.17%30.78
EOG136.00+2.78+2.09%71.32
YOOV1.56+0.04+2.63%0.35
IPI38.90+0.97+2.56%0.50
CNR90.00+2.02+2.30%4.35
GILD130.26+2.51+1.96%161.85
MUFG17.78+0.34+1.95%195.16
ADV35.48+0.88+2.54%0.44
JOBY9.24+0.20+2.21%8.36
DOW38.90+0.80+2.10%27.86
HP39.54+0.88+2.28%3.90
YDDL5.15+0.13+2.59%0.26
NVCT8.98+0.23+2.59%0.24
NMR7.92+0.16+2.06%22.72
EC14.00+0.28+2.03%28.37
AHCO13.38+0.30+2.29%1.74
CLMT31.44+0.69+2.24%2.66
SOPH4.98+0.12+2.47%0.35
SSL12.99+0.27+2.12%8.21
XOM150.83+2.64+1.78%618.95
BF.B28.16+0.57+2.07%12.99
IMRX5.90+0.14+2.43%0.39
NXTT1.60+0.04+2.56%0.13
CRGY13.05+0.27+2.11%4.17
PAGP23.88+0.49+2.09%4.58
PTEN11.70+0.24+2.09%4.30
AAPL271.88+4.27+1.60%3979.47
GLNG53.92+1.09+2.06%5.36
AESI17.06+0.36+2.16%2.04
IFRX1.65+0.04+2.48%0.11
MKC51.39+0.99+1.96%13.85
SYRE73.36+1.46+2.03%6.01
RMAX10.18+0.24+2.41%0.16
SDRL49.89+1.02+2.09%3.00
DVN49.11+0.91+1.89%29.79
SLQT0.94+0.02+2.41%0.16
RSKD4.57+0.10+2.24%0.66
CMCSA28.00+0.48+1.76%98.45
MGY29.90+0.58+1.98%5.43
EPM4.81+0.11+2.34%0.17
TALO15.49+0.31+2.04%2.49
BNTC12.89+0.28+2.22%0.42
CRNX39.39+0.77+1.99%4.01
NEGG37.87+0.79+2.13%0.81
NCSM80.00+1.76+2.25%0.21
SPSC55.98+1.10+2.00%2.02
EGHT1.85+0.04+2.21%0.27
NTR73.65+1.28+1.77%34.44
IDT53.53+1.07+2.04%1.30
GRNT5.87+0.12+2.09%0.74
WLKP23.00+0.47+2.07%0.80
REPX36.52+0.74+2.07%0.77
SGMT8.30+0.18+2.22%0.19
PSX166.88+2.78+1.69%65.30
NE54.59+0.99+1.85%7.90
CVX187.70+2.92+1.58%368.92
DOYU5.06+0.11+2.22%0.15
PEP156.57+2.47+1.60%212.45
VG12.40+0.21+1.72%29.54
MAZE26.99+0.52+1.96%1.43
LIEN9.48+0.20+2.16%0.21
GTE8.99+0.19+2.11%0.30
CINT4.48+0.09+2.05%0.55
ASIX24.10+0.48+2.03%0.63
ECO55.28+1.04+1.92%2.07
EXLS30.94+0.56+1.84%4.75
DBVT20.79+0.40+1.96%1.17
KHC22.29+0.37+1.69%25.97
CRDL1.43+0.03+2.14%0.16
WMT129.45+1.86+1.46%1035.59
FORR6.14+0.13+2.16%0.12
PBF41.50+0.73+1.79%4.79
TRMD31.84+0.57+1.82%3.18
VNOM48.63+0.83+1.74%9.24
INTU396.00+6.08+1.56%109.50
CPB20.91+0.36+1.75%6.15
BRR1.99+0.04+2.05%0.18
NFE0.66+0.01+2.04%0.18
CME286.25+4.31+1.53%103.42
PAYX91.37+1.44+1.60%32.18
LQDA38.00+0.66+1.77%3.29
EAF9.70+0.19+2.00%0.24
CRK17.10+0.29+1.73%4.98
INTA22.54+0.40+1.81%1.79
ENLV0.90+0.02+2.01%0.21
AVTX14.70+0.28+1.94%0.32
HRI126.75+2.14+1.72%4.09
DSP10.77+0.21+1.99%0.19
GDC4.17+0.08+1.96%0.26
EQNR38.62+0.57+1.50%94.55
BP46.65+0.68+1.48%119.09
CB329.37+4.77+1.47%126.70
DCBO18.95+0.35+1.88%0.47
Pre-Market Losers
Symbol Price Change Change % Market Cap ($B)
VISN9.69-9.84-50.38%4.37
ERAS10.50-8.65-45.17%6.68
GLND3.31-2.10-38.82%0.16
RMBS116.46-24.85-17.59%17.13
CLS353.92-68.29-16.17%47.16
AMKR65.90-9.72-12.85%19.35
SPOT439.48-56.34-11.36%106.65
GMTL17.78-2.81-13.65%0.72
GLW150.90-17.11-10.18%151.09
CRML12.73-1.72-11.92%1.52
SRAD12.51-1.42-10.19%3.93
CLFD25.95-3.32-11.34%0.41
ARM197.40-18.48-8.56%249.37
TTMI130.61-13.56-9.40%15.47
ALLE134.91-13.49-9.09%12.56
TRT12.56-1.57-11.11%0.14
CRWV103.00-9.06-8.08%58.18
ALAB180.58-16.06-8.17%36.46
CORZ19.26-1.84-8.72%6.59
HLMN8.00-0.78-8.88%1.73
AMD311.88-22.75-6.80%567.05
AEHR81.26-7.22-8.16%3.02
HFFG1.78-0.19-9.64%0.10
FORM132.99-10.94-7.60%12.09
BMM7.34-0.69-8.59%0.64
QGEN35.19-2.90-7.61%7.92
KLAC1780.00-120.00-6.32%253.63
MRVL148.00-10.21-6.45%143.68
ORCL162.38-10.58-6.12%498.36
AOSL39.04-3.30-7.79%1.32
CRDO168.45-12.05-6.68%35.98
XNDU26.70-1.98-6.90%9.24
VSH25.79-1.98-7.13%3.84
NVTS17.01-1.29-7.05%3.99
ANL12.26-0.99-7.47%0.95
ALMU18.42-1.56-7.81%0.35
SITM514.02-33.96-6.20%15.05
WSHP10.14-0.86-7.82%0.11
QUIK14.53-1.17-7.45%0.23
COHR303.00-18.53-5.76%63.01
VICR252.06-16.55-6.16%12.41
OCC9.80-0.80-7.55%0.11
LITE811.70-47.98-5.58%62.95
ENTG147.37-9.07-5.80%23.75
STX563.88-31.98-5.37%131.33
LSCC112.45-6.78-5.69%16.81
TSEM192.00-11.33-5.57%22.63
AXTI66.00-4.15-5.92%4.88
OKLO71.62-4.31-5.68%12.35
CTW2.57-0.19-6.93%0.17
VRT306.05-16.38-5.08%124.24
ZBH87.50-5.09-5.50%17.67
LEU209.00-12.98-5.85%4.04
INDI3.71-0.25-6.31%0.77
SHAZ39.59-2.68-6.34%0.68
LWLG11.70-0.75-6.02%1.91
WOLF27.87-1.80-6.07%1.51
RNGR17.25-1.18-6.40%0.44
NKLR6.50-0.43-6.20%0.80
KC15.51-0.93-5.66%4.89
FLEX85.41-4.67-5.18%33.61
INTC81.00-3.99-4.69%414.85
AVGO399.82-18.38-4.40%2001.63
SMR11.94-0.71-5.62%3.87
LPTH13.15-0.84-6.00%0.93
ACRS4.14-0.27-6.12%0.60
AAOI138.04-7.74-5.31%12.60
ANET164.40-8.07-4.68%222.76
MX4.88-0.33-6.33%0.19
TRX1.08-0.07-6.09%0.40
IREN45.90-2.46-5.09%16.80
APLD31.92-1.75-5.20%10.00
INV6.70-0.42-5.90%0.52
AWI168.54-9.22-5.19%7.64
ICHR66.86-3.82-5.40%2.46
RDDT152.50-7.71-4.81%29.81
SLNH1.06-0.07-6.19%0.14
SMTC96.20-5.09-5.03%10.22
NBIS138.08-6.88-4.75%37.23
AMAT387.44-17.42-4.30%330.97
VLN1.51-0.10-5.99%0.19
ATOM7.19-0.44-5.77%0.33
ONTO284.00-14.28-4.79%15.31
FN653.00-31.76-4.64%25.80
MPLT29.02-1.62-5.29%1.26
MU503.26-21.30-4.06%560.17
LNTH80.00-4.11-4.89%5.49
POET7.55-0.40-5.03%2.31
SYY72.00-3.36-4.46%36.61
VECO47.30-2.44-4.91%3.12
ASST14.89-0.80-5.10%1.10
AMSC47.20-2.44-4.92%2.36
MTSI267.02-12.42-4.44%21.58
XE34.31-1.67-4.64%7.71
MG17.95-0.98-5.18%0.60
CIEN485.17-21.17-4.18%73.64
ACMR50.72-2.51-4.72%3.69
WDC384.66-16.07-4.01%136.97
OPTX8.91-0.49-5.21%0.35
COHU44.00-2.19-4.74%2.21
AU94.19-4.04-4.11%50.15
DIOD96.68-4.60-4.54%4.80
SNDK1028.08-42.12-3.94%146.11
IPX31.06-1.59-4.87%1.00
SBSW11.95-0.55-4.40%9.00
AEVA15.30-0.78-4.85%1.02
UPS103.93-4.31-3.98%90.93
GFI43.14-1.85-4.11%40.91
AVEX32.34-1.61-4.75%1.51
IPGP111.49-5.18-4.44%5.29
VIAV43.00-1.92-4.27%11.05
TROX9.67-0.47-4.64%1.61
HUT72.46-3.25-4.29%8.52
NVDA209.35-7.26-3.35%5060.96
BRO63.40-2.72-4.11%22.38
UCTT77.50-3.59-4.43%3.78
CRD.B9.19-0.47-4.87%0.49
WULF20.53-0.90-4.20%9.80
SNDX20.06-0.94-4.48%1.89
ARIS17.95-0.81-4.32%3.91
JBL327.49-13.31-3.91%36.04
RIOT17.52-0.76-4.16%7.06
ENVX6.22-0.29-4.45%1.44
MKSI267.38-10.98-3.94%18.92
ABSI4.63-0.22-4.54%0.61
AUGO84.42-3.53-4.01%7.57
MPWR1530.00-57.57-3.63%80.16
WLDN64.00-2.91-4.35%1.15
LRCX250.66-8.81-3.40%334.88
QCOM145.04-5.22-3.47%158.82
SYNA88.00-3.73-4.07%3.64
INVE4.52-0.23-4.84%0.10
LASR67.22-2.82-4.03%4.23
FCEL10.21-0.47-4.40%0.59
KEEL3.01-0.13-4.14%1.98
KLIC83.02-3.44-3.98%4.59
XPEV15.94-0.62-3.74%15.92
LTBR12.55-0.58-4.42%0.41
NVMI510.65-19.65-3.71%17.26
TER387.93-14.07-3.50%65.45
SIDU3.20-0.15-4.48%0.27
FPS35.74-1.41-3.80%8.58
USAS5.67-0.24-4.06%1.91
BHE66.49-2.77-4.00%2.49
CDE18.19-0.69-3.64%19.99
USAR22.60-0.91-3.87%4.77
POWL250.73-9.79-3.76%9.21
CEVA26.00-1.14-4.20%0.80
EME854.16-31.26-3.53%38.66
ASML1387.50-44.94-3.14%561.82
GFS58.24-2.11-3.50%33.93
TSM392.88-12.10-2.99%2087.32
FLNC12.83-0.53-3.97%1.77
SKE29.90-1.19-3.83%3.85
TSSI14.45-0.64-4.23%0.45
SIMO142.00-5.54-3.75%5.22
HOOD81.15-2.80-3.34%76.27
HLT321.37-11.08-3.33%76.79
GDS42.39-1.60-3.64%9.03
MOD236.20-8.75-3.57%13.27
ASM6.51-0.27-3.98%1.16
HIVE2.35-0.10-4.08%0.64
POWI67.99-2.63-3.72%4.10
ACLS132.36-5.10-3.71%4.40
MSTR163.63-5.57-3.29%59.67
OUST25.89-1.03-3.83%1.77
Q139.00-4.85-3.37%30.26
HMY15.88-0.58-3.52%10.48
ARTV10.30-0.45-4.19%0.26
ECG135.24-5.01-3.57%6.94
CLSK11.80-0.45-3.67%3.26
SERV9.50-0.39-3.94%0.70
AAPG22.50-0.87-3.72%2.24
OABI1.38-0.06-4.17%0.21
RR2.42-0.10-3.97%0.55
IAUX1.52-0.06-3.80%1.33
P71.50-2.47-3.34%23.60
NB5.69-0.23-3.89%0.81
LI17.35-0.60-3.34%18.54
WST292.19-10.01-3.31%21.63
ITRI83.82-3.10-3.57%3.92
HL17.99-0.63-3.38%12.61
SKYT30.64-1.18-3.71%1.61
GEV1087.00-33.23-2.97%308.81
TECK58.27-1.95-3.24%29.46
MSB25.69-1.06-3.96%0.35
CRCL92.34-3.10-3.25%24.64
UAMY10.77-0.41-3.68%1.39
CTGO21.60-0.85-3.79%0.70
MRAM13.27-0.54-3.91%0.33
PLAB49.60-1.80-3.50%3.08
PENG28.00-1.05-3.61%1.56
AG19.80-0.68-3.32%10.14
CIFR17.55-0.61-3.36%7.39
COIN190.61-6.07-3.09%52.75
WYFI15.72-0.61-3.74%0.63
MANE96.60-3.50-3.50%2.53
FOSL4.45-0.18-3.89%0.28
INOD40.33-1.50-3.59%1.38
PURR6.02-0.23-3.68%0.74
Upcoming Economic Events

Date Impact Title Forecast Previous
2026-04-29 Low Building Permits 1.38M
2026-04-29 Low Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.8%
2026-04-29 Low Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% -1.4%
2026-04-29 Low Goods Trade Balance -87.5B -83.5B
2026-04-29 Low Housing Starts 1.49M
2026-04-29 Low Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.2%
2026-04-29 Low Crude Oil Inventories 0.3M 1.9M
2026-04-29 High Federal Funds Rate 3.75% 3.75%
2026-04-29 High FOMC Statement
2026-04-29 High FOMC Press Conference
2026-04-30 High Advance GDP q/q 2.2% 1.4%
2026-04-30 High Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.3% 0.4%
2026-04-30 High Employment Cost Index q/q 0.8% 0.7%
2026-04-30 Medium Advance GDP Price Index q/q 3.8% 3.6%
2026-04-30 Medium Unemployment Claims 213K 214K
2026-04-30 Low Personal Income m/m 0.3% -0.1%
2026-04-30 Low Personal Spending m/m 0.9% 0.5%
2026-04-30 Low Chicago PMI 54.8 52.8
2026-04-30 Low CB Leading Index m/m -0.2% -0.1%
2026-04-30 Low Natural Gas Storage 83B 103B
2026-05-01 Low Final Manufacturing PMI 54.0 54.0
2026-05-01 Medium ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.1 52.7
2026-05-01 Medium ISM Manufacturing Prices 80.0 78.3
2026-05-01 Low Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.0M 16.3M
Upcoming Earnings
Date Time Symbol Name Fiscal Qtr EPS Forecast Last Year EPS # Estimates Market Cap Price Exp Move $ Exp Move %
Rates

Name Rate 1 Day 14 Day 30 Day Last Changed Last Updated
3-Month3.6-0.032026-04-202026-04-24
4-Week3.60.020.03-0.032026-04-232026-04-24
1-Year3.52-0.02-0.02-0.132026-04-232026-04-24
6-Month3.590.01-0.042026-04-232026-04-24
2-Year3.78-0.01-0.122026-04-232026-04-24
5-Year3.920.010.01-0.112026-04-232026-04-24
10-Year4.310.010.02-0.082026-04-232026-04-24
30-Year4.910.010.01-0.032026-04-232026-04-24
10-Year Minus 2-Year0.570.040.050.012026-04-242026-04-27
Federal Funds3.642025-12-102026-04-24
Federal Funds Target Upper3.752025-12-102026-04-28
30Y Jumbo Fixed Mortgage6.47-0.07-0.14-0.172026-04-242026-04-27
15Y Fixed Mortgage5.58-0.07-0.160.042026-04-162026-04-23
30Y Fixed Mortgage6.23-0.07-0.140.012026-04-162026-04-23
Credit Card Interest21.00.030.03-0.392025-11-012026-02-01
Fed Watch (/ZQ Fed Funds futures)
Full curve →

Market-implied probabilities from /ZQ futures. Current EFFR estimate: 3.67%.

Apr 29, 2026
/ZQJ26 · implied 3.64%
-3 bp
25bp cut
12%
Hold
88%
Jun 17, 2026
/ZQM26 · implied 3.63%
-1 bp
25bp cut
5%
Hold
95%
Jul 29, 2026
/ZQN26 · implied 3.62%
-1 bp
25bp cut
3%
Hold
97%
Kalshi vs /ZQ Divergences (top mispricings)
All divergences →

Scanning Fed decision markets for mispricings...

Top Poll
Donald Trump 236 polls
Latest: Apr 27, 2026
Approve 45.0% · Disapprove 53.0%
n=2,201 · Registered Voters · Apr 27, 2026
Favorable 44.0% · Unfavorable 52.0%
n=2,201 · Registered Voters · Apr 27, 2026
Approve 40.0% · Disapprove 57.0%
n=1,647 · Registered Voters · Apr 27, 2026
Approve 37.0% · Disapprove 59.0%
n=1,836 · Adults · Apr 27, 2026
Approve 37.0% · Disapprove 62.0%
n=1,014 · Registered Voters · Apr 27, 2026

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Latest from the Blog
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Ten Empirically-Grounded Prediction Market Trading Strategies
2026-04-14

A technical survey of ten research-backed strategies for trading prediction markets, spanning favourite-longshot bias, cross-platform arbitrage, LP underwriting, combinatorial arbitrage, and dynamic hedging.

prediction-marketstrading-strategiespolymarketkalshiarbitragehedgingmarket-microstructure