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Market overview · Oct 2, 2026

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Today's economic data

Actual vs forecast history

Times ET · updates automatically as numbers are released · σ = surprise vs the indicator's typical forecast miss

Top movers

SymbolLastChgRel volMkt cap
MXL MaxLinear, Inc. Common Stock 106.06 +15.13% 1.5x $8.4B
IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC 83.22 +14.51% 2.9x $2.5B
SYNA Synaptics Inc 121.06 +14.05% 11.9x $4.2B
PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc.… 61.47 +11.80% 2.1x $2.8B
VSH Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. 38.11 +11.21% 2.3x $5.3B
IBRX ImmunityBio, Inc. Commo… 10.27 +10.61% 2.5x $9.8B
INIO INNIO N.V. Ordinary Shares 19.98 +9.30% 0.7x $13.7B
MTRN Materion Corporation 312.54 +9.61% 1.3x $5.9B

Sector heat map

1D

Box size = relative volume (today vs the 20-day average), colour = 1-day change.

Fed rate odds

FedWatch
Oct 28 FOMCimplied
Hold
80%
+25bp
20%
Dec 9 FOMCimplied
Hold
21%
+25bp
79%

EFFR 3.88% · market-implied

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Economic calendar

TimeEventImpactActualFcstPrev
Today
Fri 10/2 08:30Average Hourly Earnings m/mH0.1%0.3%0.3%
Fri 10/2 08:30Non-Farm Employment ChangeH29K89K162K
Fri 10/2 08:30Unemployment RateH4.2%4.1%4.1%
Fri 10/2 10:00Factory Orders m/mL0.1%0.1%0.9%
Fri 10/2 10:00FOMC Member Logan SpeaksL——
Fri 10/2 12:00FOMC Member Goolsbee SpeaksL——
Fri 10/2 13:00FOMC Member Goolsbee SpeaksL——

US events · times ET · H high · M medium · L low impact

Upcoming earnings

BMO before market open AMC after market close time not announced

SymbolDateEPS estExp. moveMkt cap
STZ Constellation Brands Inc Tue 10/6 AMC 3.62 ±8.3% $19.3B
RPM RPM International Inc. Tue 10/6 BMO 1.95 ±5.8% $12.6B
PEP Pepsico, Inc. Thu 10/8 BMO 2.29 ±5.9% $173.0B
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. Fri 10/9 BMO 1.96 ±10.3% $54.9B
JPM J P Morgan Chase & Co Tue 10/13 BMO 5.88 ±5.7% $879.4B
JNJ Johnson & Johnson Tue 10/13 BMO 2.90 ±5.7% $638.0B
UNH UnitedHealth Group In… Tue 10/13 BMO 4.12 ±9.1% $329.5B
GS The Goldman Sachs Gro… Tue 10/13 BMO 14.59 ±7.5% $262.2B
C Citigroup Inc. Tue 10/13 BMO 2.70 ±7.2% $217.2B
BLK BlackRock, Inc. Tue 10/13 BMO 14.19 ±7.2% $163.9B
ASML ASML Holding N.V. Wed 10/14 BMO 12.54 ±9.8% $698.2B
BAC Bank of America Corporation Wed 10/14 BMO 1.16 ±6.2% $380.6B
MS Morgan Stanley Wed 10/14 BMO 3.01 ±7.5% $295.4B
WFC Wells Fargo & Company Wed 10/14 BMO 1.84 ±6.8% $242.1B
FAST Fastenal Company Wed 10/14 BMO 0.34 ±6.5% $56.8B
STT State Street Corporation Wed 10/14 BMO 3.60 ±6.0% $48.0B
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor … Thu 10/15 BMO 4.45 ±7.1% $2.37T
SCHW The Charles Schwab Co… Thu 10/15 BMO 1.67 ±6.8% $169.0B
PLD Prologis, Inc. Thu 10/15 BMO 1.58 ±4.6% $123.1B
BNY The Bank Of New York … Thu 10/15 BMO 2.25 ±5.2% $98.1B
USB U.S. Bancorp Thu 10/15 BMO 1.33 ±6.4% $90.0B
PNC PNC Financial Service… Thu 10/15 BMO 4.97 ±5.8% $88.7B
MRSH Marsh Thu 10/15 BMO 1.96 ±4.5% $81.5B
INFY Infosys Limited Thu 10/15 0.21 ±6.1% $43.6B
IBKR Interactive Brokers G… Thu 10/15 AMC 0.67 ±8.9% $38.7B
ERIC Ericsson Thu 10/15 BMO 0.14 ±8.6% $30.8B
SNA Snap-On Incorporated Thu 10/15 BMO 4.91 ±3.0% $18.8B
WIT Wipro Limited Thu 10/15 0.04 ±16.0% $16.3B
AA Alcoa Corporation Thu 10/15 AMC 1.58 ±10.6% $11.1B
FHN First Horizon Corporation Thu 10/15 BMO 0.53 ±5.1% $10.9B
HDB HDFC Bank Limited Fri 10/16 0.40 ±4.5% $114.6B
IBN ICICI Bank Limited Fri 10/16 0.40 ±3.8% $98.6B
TRV The Travelers Compani… Fri 10/16 BMO 6.77 ±4.5% $74.4B
TFC Truist Financial Corp… Fri 10/16 BMO 1.12 ±5.1% $56.6B
MTB M&T Bank Corporation Fri 10/16 BMO 5 ±4.4% $31.4B
CFG Citizens Financial Gr… Fri 10/16 BMO 1.38 ±5.3% $26.9B
RF Regions Financial Cor… Fri 10/16 BMO 0.67 ±5.8% $22.9B

Market Commentary

Updated hourly
Updated: Live Data

📊 Market Overview

The soft September jobs print handed equity bulls exactly what they needed: permission to reprrice Fed rate cuts without economic collapse in the rear-view mirror. Equities ripped higher on the theory that the central bank will finally ease, even as Treasury yields somehow climbed across the curve, a contradiction that screams institutional confusion. Tech led the charge because rate-sensitive mega-caps benefit most from looser policy, while the Russell outperformed the blue-chip Dow, signaling rotation toward beaten-down names that got hammered last month when 75 percent of the S&P 500 turned in garbage September returns. This is textbook risk-on, but the divergence between bond weakness and stock strength suggests the market is pricing two different economic stories simultaneously.

Money is rotating hard into consumer discretionary and cyclicals on heavy volume, a tell-all signal that large asset managers are repositioning for a soft landing rather than bracing for recession. The VIX collapsed below 16, killing any hedging premium, while copper climbed on growth optimism and oil tanked on demand skepticism. Watch the currency action: the dollar rolled over while emerging market currencies rallied, especially the Mexican peso up over a percent, which tracks closely to Fed rate expectations and risk appetite. Yet crypto is wobbling and gold retreated, revealing that not everyone believes the Fed has truly pivoted. The bond market's stubborn refusal to follow equities higher is the elephant in the room; if real yields hold firm despite rate-cut chatter, the equity rally's legs could give out fast.

⚠️ Risks & Opportunities

• Soft jobs data is being treated as a Fed capitulation signal, but today's earnings print will either validate the dovish pivot or expose this as a false bottom; watch if wage growth accelerates because a hot wages number kills the entire rally narrative in minutes.

• The bond market is pricing rate cuts while equities are ripping on tech momentum, yet the long end (30Y down 0.30%) is underperforming the short end and 10Y yields are actually up 0.8% on the day; this divergence suggests institutional demand is thinning out and duration risk is building.

• Only 25% of S&P 500 names had positive Septembers while the index is hitting records, a classic warning sign that the market is balanced on a knife's edge with Nvidia and mega-cap tech masking widespread deterioration in breadth.

• Crude oil down 1.45% into soft demand signals and the dollar actually weaker despite higher real yields; oil weakness isn't about growth concerns yet, but if it breaks below 90 alongside a hawkish Fed tone shift, energy and small-caps get decimated fast.

• Consumer discretionary leading with 1.21x volume on a soft jobs print is the real tells; traders are betting the consumer walks into Q4 unscathed, but housing data and credit card delinquencies are rolling over, so any disappointment on retail sales next week reverses this entire flow.

• Copper up but gold and silver both down sharply on a day equities rally; real yields are tightening (nominal rates up while inflation expectations flatten), which is the opposite backdrop for a sustained risk-on move and suggests this bounce could be a fade in 72 hours.

🚀 Notable Movers

  • SPCX surged after launching three rockets in rapid succession, demonstrating operational cadence that positions the company as a reliable provider of both crewed missions and smallsat rideshare services.
  • HPE jumped on broad infrastructure demand tied to AI deployments, as enterprise customers accelerate spending on servers and storage systems to support large language models and data center expansion.
  • ARM climbed as semiconductor design activity remains robust, benefiting from the ongoing chip cycle refresh across AI accelerators and processors that require ARM-based architectures.
  • MPWR gained on momentum in power management solutions for AI infrastructure, where demand for efficient power delivery systems to data centers continues to accelerate.
  • TSLA rose as weak jobs data reduced rate-hike fears, while Tesla also captured upside from growing interest in stationary battery storage and grid-level energy solutions that pair with its core EV business.
  • DELL, TXN, ASX, FCX, and BE all advanced in a broad technology and industrials rally, with DELL and TXN benefiting from AI infrastructure tailwinds, ASX riding semiconductor packaging strength for advanced chip production, FCX capitalizing on copper demand from data center buildouts, and BE gaining from energy infrastructure secular trends.
  • WDC and STX collapsed roughly 10% each on concerns that hard drive and storage demand may not sustain, as customers shift toward flash-based solutions and SSDs for AI workloads, creating a structural headwind for traditional mechanical storage.
  • ACN retreated despite beating Q4 earnings and raising AI guidance, suggesting investors are now pricing in high expectations and turning cautious on consulting services valuations after a strong run.
  • APP sold off sharply following class action lawsuit filings alleging securities violations and investor harm, creating legal and reputational risks that overshadow any near-term operational strength.
  • NKE dropped after reporting a revenue miss in Q1 earnings, signaling that consumer demand remains softer than anticipated despite margin improvements.
  • SPOT, COIN, VEEV, and ALNY all underperformed, likely taking collateral damage from rotation out of growth and discretionary exposure as the market consolidated Friday's gains and investors rotated into industrial and infrastructure plays.
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Bond Volatility Just Spiked While the VIX Slept. Is That a Signal to Buy Puts?
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The MOVE index jumped 39% in a month while the VIX barely moved, and headlines say it's time to buy puts. We checked every similar split since 2004. The divergence is real, but as a signal to buy puts it has a poor record. Here are the numbers, episode by episode.

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National polls

Polls & odds

Average of the major poll aggregators, past 12 months. Control odds from prediction markets.

Mortgage rates

Rates & calculator
30-yr fixed · estimate7.38%
+1 bp since last print$2,764/mo on $400,000
15-yr fixed
6.69% +115 bp in a year
30-yr jumbo
7.33% +87 bp in a year
30-yr FHA
7.11% +97 bp in a year
10-yr Treasury
5.277% +4 bp today

Average rate borrowers locked, re-priced with the 10-year Treasury between daily prints. Not a quote.