Frenzy Capital — Live Market Snapshot & Analysis

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Market Analysis
Updated: May 01, 2026 06:01 AMLive Data
🌅 Pre-Market Overview

Yesterday's record close caps off April's best month since 2020, but this morning tells a subtly different story. The S&P 500 and Dow are edging higher in futures, yet the Nasdaq is already struggling and the Russell 2000 is outright weak; gold is getting hammered while oil climbs on persistent Iran tensions. What we're seeing is a rotation away from the mega-cap tech names that drove April's rally and into value, industrials, and energy. The market is essentially saying "yes to growth, but no to the concentration risk of AI euphoria," and that's a healthier posture heading into earnings season. Equities aren't rolling over, but they're also not celebrating; this is a pause to reassess which winners deserve to stay winners.

The real tell is treasuries holding steady while gold tanks and energy rallies. This isn't a flight-to-safety setup; it's the opposite. Credit spreads and rate markets suggest the Fed's path remains data-dependent, not emergency-driven, which means the economy is getting credit for actually delivering growth. Bitcoin and ether are both up smartly, reinforcing that risk appetite hasn't vanished, just redirected. The disconnect between small-cap weakness (Russell down) and broad-market stability hints that earnings quality will separate the wheat from chaff today and into next week. Investors aren't bearish; they're just done with indiscriminate buying.

⚠️ Risks & Opportunities

• S&P 500 futures barely budging at plus 13 basis points while Russell 2000 rolls over another 14 basis points signals a lazy, high-conviction long in mega-cap covering for real weakness in the small-cap space; the breadth divergence from yesterday's broad rally is already cracking and today's ISM Manufacturing print will either confirm or reverse that crack.

• Gold down 123 basis points, crude up 41 basis points, and long-dated Treasury yields modestly higher across the curve tells you the market is pricing through a goldilocks scenario where growth sticks around but inflation stays benign; if ISM Prices shock hot this morning that whole construct gets torched.

• Russell 2000 in correction territory after yesterday's close combined with overnight weakness in Nasdaq futures signals fund managers are rotating out of the May reconstitution play; small caps get repriced lower if growth starts to look fragile, and the Dow's outperformance (plus 21 basis points) is just large-cap quality hoarding into the close.

• Crude and natural gas both ripping higher on Iran geopolitical grind and LNG supply, but energy moving independently of equity weakness is a yellow flag that risk markets are bifurcating; if equities gap down on a bad ISM print, oil should follow, and the fact it's holding tells you traders still expect the fed to be on hold for months.

• Bitcoin up 115 basis points and ether up 97 basis points in a risk-off premarket for everything else is classic spec rotation into digital assets when real yields feel too high; this will reverse hard if manufacturing data disappoints and bonds rally into safety.

• Open the ES long if ISM Manufacturing PMI comes in above 50 with moderate price pressures; fade any pop above 7260 until we see actual cash equity volume because yesterday's rip was tech rotation out of mega-cap into industrials, and that thesis dies if growth fears resurface.


📰 Referenced News Articles

S&P 500:

Dow Jones:

NASDAQ-100:

Russell 2000:

Sector Performance
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Options Flow Sentiment
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Most Bullish
Symbol Score Bull $ Bear $ C/P Ratio Blocks Sweeps
KWEB1.000$15K$04.3314074
NEM1.000$31K$02.311016
CVE1.000$12K$02.1230
XLF1.000$48K$00.3411245
SFM1.000$40K$00.381611
OKLO1.000$133K$01.537586
OWL1.000$30K$03.1722799
RUM1.000$105K$09.252111
HPQ1.000$21K$02.043711
SH1.000$19K$00.4611
Most Bearish
Symbol Score Bull $ Bear $ C/P Ratio Blocks Sweeps
CRDO-1.000$0$218K1.4696
PLUG-1.000$0$248K12.63240120
WEAT-1.000$0$27K8.48156
FCEL-1.000$0$41K5.484619
TTMI-1.000$0$252K2.1213
GRPN-1.000$0$27K1.4852
AG-1.000$0$13K6.307419
CRCL-1.000$0$203K1.9010133
NVDL-1.000$0$68K1.311712
GDX-1.000$0$65K3.6513532
Movers — Apr 30, 2026
Top Gainers
Symbol Price Change Change % Rel Volume Market Cap ($B)
Biggest Losers
Symbol Price Change Change % Rel Volume Market Cap ($B)
Pre-Market Gainers
Symbol Price Change Change % Market Cap ($B)
VIAV60.39+14.86+32.64%9.99
MRAM17.89+4.70+35.63%0.30
TTMI178.17+40.67+29.58%14.29
PI153.09+33.05+27.53%3.59
BAND31.00+6.80+28.10%0.77
VISN12.73+2.26+21.59%2.23
XRX1.94+0.37+23.57%0.21
GKOS138.00+21.04+17.99%7.00
WCC350.00+44.73+14.65%14.94
HTZ6.49+0.89+15.89%1.81
NVCR13.77+1.84+15.42%1.40
SILC32.83+4.70+16.71%0.16
PACK4.57+0.63+15.99%0.35
INSG17.20+2.41+16.29%0.24
FIP6.45+0.78+13.76%0.66
QCOM172.28+16.28+10.44%160.05
FMC16.47+1.82+12.42%1.91
FTAI236.00+22.89+10.74%22.16
BGIN3.68+0.42+12.71%0.42
PWR690.00+61.40+9.77%94.68
PRCT24.20+2.49+11.47%1.31
DRVN14.12+1.38+10.83%2.07
THRY4.08+0.42+11.45%0.17
TRAK9.86+0.99+11.16%0.16
RFIL14.70+1.47+11.13%0.15
TER331.85+25.52+8.33%59.51
HGV47.47+4.07+9.38%3.69
GOOGL374.50+24.56+7.02%4231.44
GOOG371.68+24.37+7.02%4203.86
MICC14.21+1.15+8.81%8.08
BHE79.00+6.60+9.12%2.47
TXT97.30+7.52+8.38%15.35
CWH7.60+0.67+9.67%0.43
KN33.00+2.64+8.70%2.60
GTX22.20+1.71+8.35%3.81
BLLN79.82+6.11+8.29%3.60
SLNH1.41+0.12+9.77%0.12
KGC32.07+2.21+7.40%36.55
MO73.02+4.82+7.07%113.32
RCL272.30+18.29+7.20%68.63
EMAT9.57+0.70+7.88%5.48
CVNA423.51+26.92+6.79%58.12
CMG35.23+2.24+6.79%42.81
PRLD4.61+0.34+7.96%0.36
ZBIO18.85+1.30+7.41%1.12
TTEK34.02+2.15+6.75%8.18
CANG0.44+0.03+8.00%0.18
QURE17.94+1.21+7.23%1.14
LLY898.08+46.87+5.51%780.79
VTIX3.48+0.26+8.07%0.11
LWLG12.56+0.80+6.80%1.74
CBUS1.38+0.10+7.81%0.11
AEHR87.23+5.42+6.63%2.59
CNTA41.95+2.50+6.34%6.10
CAT852.05+42.00+5.18%380.54
VACH13.10+0.85+6.94%0.41
CLS397.44+20.90+5.55%41.57
SFM75.31+4.18+5.88%6.69
TNET45.49+2.64+6.16%1.93
COHU47.43+2.72+6.08%2.08
AIN61.57+3.55+6.12%1.56
HYMC36.20+1.99+5.82%3.26
FORM143.00+7.47+5.51%10.46
PPTA27.75+1.51+5.75%3.44
CCC5.10+0.28+5.81%2.79
ORLY96.25+4.56+4.97%76.62
SNDK1115.71+51.50+4.84%147.95
IPX30.78+1.73+5.96%1.04
IMOS45.00+2.48+5.83%1.50
WLTH11.00+0.59+5.67%1.60
MB8.40+0.51+6.46%0.11
INDV35.99+1.84+5.39%4.20
ADAM8.20+0.45+5.81%0.73
SITM553.89+26.69+5.06%13.61
RZLV2.60+0.14+5.69%1.01
QNC2.75+0.15+5.77%0.61
AMZN273.68+10.64+4.05%2792.88
BAX17.75+0.85+5.03%9.26
VENU3.95+0.22+5.97%0.23
ONCY0.93+0.05+6.20%0.10
NG8.20+0.40+5.13%3.59
BVN31.50+1.48+4.93%7.90
HUT74.49+3.49+4.92%8.12
TFPM33.05+1.55+4.92%6.66
SABS3.68+0.20+5.75%0.25
HMY15.78+0.72+4.78%9.80
SBSW12.02+0.55+4.80%8.44
LITE896.00+37.68+4.39%56.50
NVA5.61+0.30+5.65%0.22
BLZE4.41+0.23+5.58%0.26
MRLN9.07+0.45+5.22%0.98
ONTO297.49+13.15+4.62%14.05
GAU2.35+0.12+5.30%0.59
CGAU18.31+0.84+4.81%3.60
SITE126.60+5.63+4.65%6.33
GVA128.25+5.70+4.65%5.46
CMRC2.94+0.15+5.38%0.24
ADT7.50+0.33+4.60%5.80
CBZ34.77+1.60+4.82%1.78
CGON67.70+2.95+4.56%5.77
YSS30.58+1.34+4.58%4.07
STRL490.00+20.25+4.31%14.48
ATLX4.92+0.25+5.35%0.13
NVO41.83+1.54+3.82%182.56
CAKE65.50+2.83+4.52%3.12
BNL20.82+0.89+4.47%3.84
EXK9.30+0.40+4.49%2.73
JACK12.92+0.62+5.04%0.25
KEN91.53+3.81+4.34%4.62
WDC428.20+15.44+3.74%132.56
OR38.04+1.54+4.22%7.04
MMED12.54+0.52+4.33%3.63
MT58.08+2.16+3.86%44.07
MNTN10.19+0.45+4.62%0.74
CARR64.10+2.36+3.82%51.80
CDZI4.39+0.20+4.77%0.37
AXTI74.08+3.01+4.24%4.41
MLCO5.74+0.24+4.36%2.26
AG19.72+0.77+4.06%9.62
DBD86.50+3.54+4.27%2.86
TRT11.69+0.55+4.97%0.12
AUGO84.75+3.32+4.08%7.01
XMTR47.20+1.91+4.22%2.41
SSRM29.30+1.13+4.01%5.99
PAAS53.20+1.92+3.74%22.08
UPBD19.75+0.81+4.28%1.11
NAKA0.18+0.01+4.76%0.13
BTG4.48+0.17+3.94%5.87
WPM129.33+4.44+3.56%58.77
GFI42.99+1.50+3.62%38.76
SIMO226.02+8.52+3.92%5.07
ASM6.49+0.26+4.17%1.08
WULF20.77+0.75+3.75%10.19
FDMT9.19+0.38+4.31%0.48
GRO3.23+0.14+4.53%0.17
IAG16.97+0.61+3.73%9.60
BWAY16.55+0.67+4.22%0.64
EQH43.00+1.53+3.69%11.78
KEYS347.00+11.54+3.44%56.99
CDE17.95+0.62+3.58%18.48
CRBP10.25+0.43+4.38%0.17
SA27.84+1.01+3.76%3.04
MXL70.00+2.48+3.67%4.66
ATRC28.40+1.06+3.88%1.44
CCL26.44+0.86+3.36%36.43
BKSY32.90+1.24+3.92%1.16
HL18.08+0.61+3.52%11.96
KLRS5.75+0.24+4.36%0.13
IMUX10.46+0.43+4.33%0.15
SVM11.91+0.43+3.75%2.60
GORO1.44+0.06+4.21%0.24
PZG1.44+0.06+4.33%0.13
BHC5.80+0.21+3.76%2.12
MARA11.11+0.39+3.64%4.19
ASTS72.21+2.36+3.38%21.03
MDXH2.05+0.08+4.29%0.10
CIFR17.51+0.59+3.49%7.01
TRVI14.33+0.51+3.69%1.96
NAMM1.96+0.08+4.26%0.11
SHIM5.60+0.22+4.09%0.20
CHRS1.81+0.07+4.02%0.27
CUK26.39+0.82+3.21%36.46
FJET5.43+0.21+4.02%0.26
TGB7.22+0.25+3.58%2.64
KEEL2.84+0.10+3.65%1.74
JMIA7.15+0.26+3.77%0.85
GUTS0.63+0.02+4.14%0.10
EGO30.60+0.99+3.34%8.08
TECK58.02+1.78+3.17%28.30
CTGO22.73+0.82+3.74%0.69
MUX21.79+0.76+3.61%1.29
AGI42.24+1.31+3.20%17.52
RCEL4.40+0.17+4.02%0.13
PRMB19.93+0.63+3.28%7.15
MTZ382.00+11.45+3.09%29.57
AME234.73+6.86+3.01%52.44
SPCE2.42+0.09+3.86%0.22
AMTX3.06+0.11+3.90%0.19
AIP27.99+0.96+3.55%1.18
ZGN11.90+0.39+3.39%3.16
NBIS145.50+4.31+3.05%34.29
EQX13.87+0.43+3.20%10.91
USAS5.69+0.19+3.45%1.85
CEPT11.89+0.43+3.75%0.34
INV6.52+0.23+3.66%0.50
POWI72.00+2.31+3.31%3.68
UCTT74.40+2.39+3.32%3.51
TRX1.13+0.04+3.67%0.37
AVGO415.82+10.37+2.56%1893.06
NFGC2.05+0.07+3.54%0.75
ERII11.08+0.38+3.55%0.59
CUZ25.87+0.81+3.23%4.26
THM2.34+0.08+3.54%0.60
UP5.30+0.19+3.72%0.22
BE296.20+8.23+2.86%64.39
AEM188.70+5.14+2.80%94.80
RMBS115.55+3.39+3.02%12.03
VMET11.76+0.38+3.34%1.31
ICHR65.80+2.07+3.25%2.31
ODV3.05+0.10+3.39%0.93
Pre-Market Losers
Symbol Price Change Change % Market Cap ($B)
OPCH19.68-7.19-26.74%4.34
PUMP15.10-3.10-17.03%2.14
LANV1.31-0.30-18.63%0.18
STGW5.81-0.88-13.15%1.70
WTW256.83-33.28-11.47%27.40
CHKP123.50-16.46-11.76%14.52
TDOC5.21-0.74-12.44%1.08
FLS75.00-9.25-10.98%10.87
CLMB19.00-2.27-10.67%0.39
META620.00-49.12-7.34%1704.15
BBT28.61-2.73-8.71%2.67
KLAC1685.64-130.57-7.19%237.11
SXT110.80-9.74-8.08%5.24
NCSM68.99-7.01-9.22%0.21
MCHB13.98-1.20-7.91%3.45
STLA7.17-0.53-6.88%22.77
PBF40.00-3.13-7.26%4.86
IP31.40-2.18-6.49%18.01
ONEW9.30-0.81-8.01%0.17
GDC3.13-0.26-7.61%0.24
OMSE4.43-0.37-7.65%0.21
ITGR78.05-5.62-6.72%2.88
KALU161.00-11.52-6.68%2.82
APAD9.31-0.74-7.36%0.28
HUBB514.00-31.93-5.85%28.88
ROMA6.30-0.48-7.08%0.37
NICM6.30-0.47-6.94%0.13
F11.60-0.64-5.23%49.74
PH900.00-47.50-5.01%121.45
W69.23-4.04-5.51%9.62
ROG120.01-7.34-5.76%2.31
ATEN25.10-1.53-5.75%2.02
LGIH45.25-2.68-5.59%1.14
BFLY4.65-0.27-5.49%1.35
GBFH26.55-1.60-5.68%0.41
SABR1.71-0.10-5.52%0.73
XYF4.65-0.29-5.87%0.19
LAUR30.00-1.59-5.03%4.40
ACHC26.83-1.43-5.06%2.54
MORN178.54-9.06-4.83%7.08
ALKT15.60-0.82-4.99%1.74
IPGP107.90-5.36-4.73%4.77
MA504.69-20.54-3.91%448.93
SW37.94-1.74-4.39%21.26
CHH112.01-5.35-4.56%5.49
HRI125.61-5.99-4.55%4.47
GHC1098.11-51.89-4.51%5.12
ITW255.00-10.67-4.02%77.34
HTLM1.79-0.10-5.29%0.17
SD14.90-0.75-4.79%0.57
SIRI25.64-1.12-4.19%8.84
COP123.55-4.70-3.66%151.53
HPP8.62-0.41-4.57%0.53
MSFT411.00-13.46-3.17%3187.45
GRDN36.01-1.56-4.15%2.42
AMKR67.99-2.62-3.70%17.68
EBAY100.11-3.68-3.55%44.96
CSHR5.17-0.23-4.26%0.37
MRK107.50-3.45-3.11%271.76
FICO1008.00-35.57-3.41%23.97
OIO1.70-0.07-3.95%0.60
AGIO27.01-1.04-3.71%1.47
GOAI3.77-0.16-4.07%0.15
SAFX0.35-0.02-4.11%0.11
RRR54.11-1.95-3.48%3.25
EQIX1056.40-32.67-3.00%106.16
CROX96.75-3.39-3.39%5.13
EIG41.20-1.57-3.67%0.81
JOE66.70-2.33-3.38%4.08
MFI10.11-0.39-3.71%0.53
EXPE243.00-7.57-3.02%29.67
WWD350.01-10.97-3.04%21.70
APPN21.00-0.72-3.31%1.62
EXFY1.01-0.04-3.81%0.10
MAT14.42-0.47-3.16%4.30
DSGR26.05-0.90-3.34%1.26
DXYZ31.69-1.12-3.41%0.64
AON313.59-8.90-2.76%68.92
VLO244.38-6.92-2.75%71.83
SOC13.50-0.44-3.16%1.93
PERF1.64-0.06-3.53%0.17
RGC28.13-0.82-2.83%14.36
VG12.80-0.36-2.74%30.19
DAR61.00-1.80-2.87%9.73
GPI339.01-10.20-2.92%4.09
ATLN1.70-0.06-3.41%0.17
SMWB2.62-0.09-3.32%0.24
REI1.80-0.06-3.23%0.35
JLHL13.50-0.46-3.30%0.23
IPHA1.43-0.05-3.38%0.13
PHR9.08-0.29-3.09%0.57
WTI4.34-0.14-3.01%0.59
ASPN3.50-0.11-3.05%0.30
VKTX30.50-0.83-2.65%3.75
DVN49.86-1.22-2.39%30.75
CRK17.02-0.45-2.58%5.08
APA39.33-0.99-2.46%13.66
EXR137.20-3.33-2.37%29.78
UMC12.45-0.30-2.35%29.33
SHMD5.77-0.17-2.86%0.34
CAG13.88-0.35-2.46%6.83
KOS2.98-0.08-2.61%1.76
DSX2.40-0.07-2.83%0.31
COLB28.42-0.70-2.40%8.58
CAH198.32-4.50-2.22%48.38
TALO15.59-0.40-2.50%2.59
PLTK3.40-0.09-2.58%1.32
AR38.11-0.90-2.31%11.94
SVV8.02-0.21-2.55%1.31
HUBS222.00-5.25-2.31%11.63
IDCC344.49-8.19-2.32%9.07
EPD37.98-0.81-2.09%83.16
ANL13.73-0.36-2.56%0.78
PTEN12.06-0.29-2.35%4.49
OXY59.49-1.27-2.09%58.12
AM21.39-0.49-2.24%10.38
ANNA3.92-0.11-2.73%0.15
NABL5.15-0.13-2.46%0.99
NXDR1.55-0.04-2.52%0.60
YOOV1.51-0.04-2.58%0.35
HMH20.60-0.52-2.46%0.89
ETSY68.04-1.56-2.24%6.01
BCYC4.61-0.12-2.54%0.33
MPC237.00-4.81-1.99%68.50
DWSN3.27-0.09-2.68%0.11
ACDC7.50-0.18-2.34%1.32
NOG27.32-0.63-2.25%2.92
BG123.74-2.57-2.03%24.49
MAX9.76-0.24-2.40%0.55
PR21.21-0.44-2.03%17.61
TAC11.75-0.26-2.16%3.77
TTD23.87-0.50-2.05%10.92
WDAY120.03-2.40-1.96%31.15
SLM22.50-0.49-2.13%4.42
INTU387.73-7.35-1.86%110.73
QLYS87.66-1.94-2.17%3.02
MTDR61.60-1.30-2.07%7.60
EGAN7.17-0.18-2.45%0.21
BSAC31.47-0.63-1.96%15.58
TPB75.50-1.68-2.18%1.50
FDS227.65-4.67-2.01%8.36
SPSC54.00-1.18-2.14%2.04
TOYO11.00-0.26-2.31%0.41
IR76.00-1.46-1.88%31.77
SPOK10.79-0.26-2.35%0.24
ROLR9.17-0.23-2.45%0.11
SM30.62-0.61-1.95%7.02
FANG201.65-3.67-1.79%56.28
CBIO20.49-0.45-2.15%0.73
CTRA35.03-0.65-1.82%26.30
FRMI4.93-0.10-1.99%3.33
LYB71.96-1.33-1.81%23.07
VERA35.13-0.71-1.98%2.66
STT148.06-2.64-1.75%42.23
HNGE43.14-0.85-1.93%3.46
OVV59.99-1.10-1.79%16.56
OKTA74.79-1.37-1.80%13.48
GTM6.01-0.12-1.96%1.84
AMRZ55.79-0.98-1.73%31.81
ALGN175.23-3.17-1.78%12.70
XEL77.50-1.32-1.67%49.61
TENB21.06-0.41-1.91%2.35
RYAM9.20-0.19-2.02%0.67
INFU9.62-0.21-2.14%0.21
FTI75.69-1.30-1.69%30.18
DV10.75-0.21-1.92%1.72
HSY186.00-3.16-1.67%38.09
BK130.14-2.13-1.61%91.66
GLOB39.90-0.76-1.87%1.77
AVPT9.74-0.18-1.81%2.16
HAL41.14-0.67-1.60%34.09
CRM178.50-2.72-1.50%148.33
TTGT5.55-0.11-1.94%0.42
LI17.46-0.29-1.63%18.18
DAN35.20-0.62-1.73%4.12
GPRK9.33-0.18-1.89%0.60
EOG137.00-2.12-1.52%72.74
MNDY65.51-1.15-1.73%3.44
SVCO9.68-0.19-1.93%0.31
NXTT1.45-0.03-2.03%0.12
EXE99.40-1.59-1.57%23.27
CNQ46.52-0.69-1.46%96.75
NIO6.29-0.10-1.56%15.94
ABTC1.12-0.02-1.75%1.24
ENTG147.08-2.29-1.53%22.03
PBT21.95-0.39-1.75%1.04
DAVA4.17-0.08-1.88%0.22
PYPL50.19-0.75-1.47%44.66
SND5.24-0.10-1.87%0.23
CF124.85-1.93-1.52%18.79
BTU26.99-0.45-1.64%3.28
PEPG1.52-0.03-1.94%0.11
VIRT50.00-0.82-1.61%4.24
CLB17.00-0.30-1.73%0.77
EC13.58-0.20-1.45%28.72
CLNE2.25-0.04-1.75%0.48
DOCS23.82-0.38-1.57%4.54
BMI116.00-1.86-1.58%3.46
GAMB3.72-0.07-1.85%0.14
WTTR16.73-0.27-1.59%2.01
Upcoming Economic Events

Date Impact Title Forecast Previous
2026-05-01 Low Final Manufacturing PMI 54.0 54.0
2026-05-01 Medium ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.1 52.7
2026-05-01 Medium ISM Manufacturing Prices 80.0 78.3
2026-05-01 Low Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.0M 16.3M
Upcoming Earnings
Date Time Symbol Exp Move % Exp Move $ Fiscal Qtr EPS Forecast Last Year EPS # Estimates Market Cap
Rates

Name Rate 1 Day 14 Day 30 Day Last Changed Last Updated
3-Month3.6-0.02-0.032026-04-202026-04-28
4-Week3.59-0.01-0.01-0.042026-04-272026-04-28
1-Year3.560.040.01-0.112026-04-272026-04-28
6-Month3.60.01-0.01-0.022026-04-272026-04-28
2-Year3.840.060.06-0.122026-04-272026-04-28
5-Year3.970.050.05-0.112026-04-272026-04-28
10-Year4.360.050.06-0.062026-04-272026-04-28
30-Year4.940.030.040.012026-04-242026-04-28
10-Year Minus 2-Year0.5-0.02-0.03-0.032026-04-282026-04-29
Federal Funds3.642025-12-102026-04-28
Federal Funds Target Upper3.752025-12-102026-04-30
30Y Jumbo Fixed Mortgage6.4740.05-0.272026-04-282026-04-29
15Y Fixed Mortgage5.640.06-0.01-0.112026-04-232026-04-30
30Y Fixed Mortgage6.30.07-0.082026-04-232026-04-30
Credit Card Interest21.00.030.03-0.392025-11-012026-02-01
Fed Watch (/ZQ Fed Funds futures)
Full curve →

Market-implied probabilities from /ZQ futures. Current EFFR estimate: 3.67%.

Jun 17, 2026
/ZQM26 · implied 3.59%
-8 bp
25bp cut
32%
Hold
68%
Jul 29, 2026
/ZQN26 · implied 3.62%
+3 bp
Hold
90%
25bp hike
10%
Sep 16, 2026
/ZQU26 · implied 3.62%
0 bp
Hold
100%
Kalshi vs /ZQ Divergences (top mispricings)
All divergences →

Scanning Fed decision markets for mispricings...

Top Poll
Donald Trump 240 polls
Latest: Apr 28, 2026
Approve 41.0% · Disapprove 57.0%
n=2,874 · Likely Voters · Apr 28, 2026
Approve 39.6% · Disapprove 56.9%
n=3,176 · Registered Voters · Apr 28, 2026
Approve 45.0% · Disapprove 53.0%
n=2,201 · Registered Voters · Apr 27, 2026
Favorable 44.0% · Unfavorable 52.0%
n=2,201 · Registered Voters · Apr 27, 2026
Approve 40.0% · Disapprove 57.0%
n=1,647 · Registered Voters · Apr 27, 2026

View all polls

Latest from the Blog
All Posts
Ten Empirically-Grounded Prediction Market Trading Strategies
2026-04-14

A technical survey of ten research-backed strategies for trading prediction markets, spanning favourite-longshot bias, cross-platform arbitrage, LP underwriting, combinatorial arbitrage, and dynamic hedging.

prediction-marketstrading-strategiespolymarketkalshiarbitragehedgingmarket-microstructure