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Live indices, movers, options and volatility · Oct 12, 2026
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S&P 500 SPX−0.06%
7,807.24Pre-mkt
Nasdaq 100 NDX−0.71%
30,664.70Pre-mkt
Dow DJI+0.38%
51,851.00Pre-mkt
Russell 2000 RUT−0.45%
2,794.48Pre-mkt
VIX VIX+2.49%
15.21Pre-mkt
10Y yield TNX−0.08%
5.24Pre-mkt
Today's economic data
Actual vs forecast historyTimes ET · updates automatically as numbers are released · σ = surprise vs the indicator's typical forecast miss
Top movers
| Symbol | Last | Chg | Rel vol | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIGS FIGS, Inc. | 17.76 | +12.55% | 3.2x | $2.6B |
| FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | 740.19 | +10.88% | 1.6x | $14.4B |
| CCC CCC Intelligent Solutio… | 7.58 | +7.91% | 2.5x | $4.1B |
| WLYB John Wiley & Sons, Inc.… | 51.59 | +7.70% | 0.1x | $2.4B |
| VSXY Victorias Secret & Co. | 88.87 | +7.24% | 0.8x | $6.6B |
| MANH Manhattan Associates Inc | 218.16 | +6.48% | 1.8x | $11.9B |
| DHT DHT HOLDINGS, INC. | 26.21 | +6.39% | 1.6x | $4.0B |
| CHA Chagee Holdings Limited… | 11.98 | +6.53% | 1.5x | $2.1B |
Sector heat map
1DReal Estate
+0.75%
XLRE
Comm. Services
+0.97%
XLC
Health Care
+0.69%
XLV
Technology
−1.22%
XLK
Cons. Staples
+1.17%
XLP
Cons. Discr.
−0.51%
XLY
Energy
+1.43%
XLE
Industrials
−0.06%
XLI
Financials
+0.58%
XLF
Materials
+0.02%
XLB
Utilities
+0.53%
XLU
Box size = relative volume (today vs the 20-day average), colour = 1-day change.
Economic calendar
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | |||||
| Mon 10/12 07:00 | Bank Holiday | L | — | — | |
| Mon 10/12 12:10 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Tomorrow | |||||
| Tue 10/13 03:45 | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Tue 10/13 06:00 | NFIB Small Business Index | L | 98.1 | 98.7 | |
| Tue 10/13 08:15 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | L | — | 23.8K | |
| Tue 10/13 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | L | 3.96M | 3.98M | |
| Tue 10/13 13:00 | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Tue 10/13 16:00 | FOMC Member Collins Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Wed, Oct 14 | |||||
| Wed 10/14 05:40 | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Wed 10/14 08:30 | Core CPI m/m | H | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Wed 10/14 08:30 | Core CPI y/y | H | 2.5% | 2.4% | |
| Wed 10/14 08:30 | CPI m/m | H | 0.6% | 0.4% | |
| Wed 10/14 08:30 | CPI y/y | H | 3.6% | 3.4% | |
| Wed 10/14 13:30 | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Wed 10/14 14:00 | Beige Book | L | — | — | |
| Wed 10/14 16:30 | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | L | — | — | |
| Wed 10/14 22:55 | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Thu, Oct 15 | |||||
| Thu 10/15 08:30 | Core PPI m/m | H | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Thu 10/15 08:30 | Core Retail Sales m/m | H | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| Thu 10/15 08:30 | PPI m/m | H | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| Thu 10/15 08:30 | Retail Sales m/m | H | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| Thu 10/15 08:30 | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | M | 26.5 | 37.8 | |
| Thu 10/15 08:30 | Unemployment Claims | M | 195K | 197K | |
| Thu 10/15 08:30 | Empire State Manufacturing Index | L | 3.2 | 7.6 | |
| Thu 10/15 10:00 | Business Inventories m/m | L | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| Thu 10/15 10:30 | Natural Gas Storage | L | — | 85B | |
| Thu 10/15 12:00 | Crude Oil Inventories | L | — | -3.2M | |
| Thu 10/15 16:30 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | L | — | — | |
| Thu 10/15 23:30 | Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks | H | — | — | |
| Fri, Oct 16 | |||||
| Fri 10/16 08:30 | Import Prices m/m | L | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| Fri 10/16 09:15 | Capacity Utilization Rate | L | 76.5% | 76.3% | |
| Fri 10/16 09:15 | Industrial Production m/m | L | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| Fri 10/16 14:00 | Federal Budget Balance | L | 75.3B | -166.8B | |
| Fri 10/16 16:00 | TIC Long-Term Purchases | L | 125.7B | -27.9B | |
| Tue, Oct 20early look · forecasts to come | |||||
| Tue 10/20 08:30 | Housing Starts | L | — | 1.27M | |
| Tue 10/20 08:30 | Building Permits | L | — | 1.39M | |
| Thu, Oct 22early look · forecasts to come | |||||
| Thu 10/22 08:30 | Unemployment Claims | M | — | — | |
| Fri, Oct 23early look · forecasts to come | |||||
| Fri 10/23 10:00 | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | M | — | — | |
| Fri 10/23 10:00 | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | M | — | — | |
No events match these filters.
Showing 1–9 of 39
Page 1 of 5
US events · times ET · H high · M medium · L low impact
Upcoming earnings
BMO before market open AMC after market close time not announced
| Symbol | Date | EPS est | Exp. move | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM J P Morgan Chase & Co | Tue 10/13 BMO | 5.94 | ±5.9% | $881.0B |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Tue 10/13 BMO | 2.53 | ±6.4% | $618.1B |
| UNH UnitedHealth Group In… | Tue 10/13 BMO | 4.12 | ±9.0% | $333.0B |
| GS The Goldman Sachs Gro… | Tue 10/13 BMO | 12.90 | ±7.4% | $257.0B |
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company | Tue 10/13 BMO | 1.85 | ±7.1% | $248.1B |
| C Citigroup Inc. | Tue 10/13 BMO | 2.66 | ±7.4% | $214.8B |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza Inc | Tue 10/13 BMO | 4.33 | ±10.4% | $10.2B |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | Wed 10/14 BMO | 12.47 | ±10.1% | $682.1B |
| BAC Bank of America Corporation | Wed 10/14 BMO | 1.11 | ±6.5% | $374.9B |
| MS Morgan Stanley | Wed 10/14 BMO | 2.83 | ±7.3% | $294.4B |
| BLK BlackRock, Inc. | Wed 10/14 BMO | 14.01 | ±7.7% | $165.0B |
| PGR Progressive Corporati… | Wed 10/14 BMO | 4.37 | ±6.2% | $127.2B |
| FAST Fastenal Company | Wed 10/14 BMO | 0.34 | ±8.2% | $57.9B |
| STT State Street Corporation | Wed 10/14 BMO | 3.63 | ±7.8% | $48.1B |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor … | Thu 10/15 BMO | 4.45 | ±7.5% | $2.38T |
| SCHW The Charles Schwab Co… | Thu 10/15 BMO | 1.66 | ±6.8% | $167.5B |
| PLD Prologis, Inc. | Thu 10/15 BMO | 1.58 | ±6.5% | $122.6B |
| BNY The Bank Of New York … | Thu 10/15 BMO | 2.26 | ±7.0% | $97.4B |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | Thu 10/15 BMO | 1.32 | ±6.4% | $88.9B |
| PNC PNC Financial Service… | Thu 10/15 BMO | 4.97 | ±5.9% | $87.6B |
| MRSH Marsh | Thu 10/15 BMO | 1.96 | ±6.8% | $84.3B |
| INFY Infosys Limited | Thu 10/15 | 0.21 | ±13.2% | $43.4B |
| IBKR Interactive Brokers G… | Thu 10/15 AMC | 0.66 | ±9.2% | $39.2B |
| ERIC Ericsson | Thu 10/15 BMO | 0.14 | ±10.9% | $32.0B |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport S… | Thu 10/15 AMC | 1.95 | ±9.9% | $21.5B |
| WIT Wipro Limited | Thu 10/15 BMO | 0.04 | ±25.0% | $16.5B |
| AA Alcoa Corporation | Thu 10/15 AMC | 1.65 | ±11.7% | $11.3B |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | Thu 10/15 BMO | 0.53 | ±7.6% | $11.0B |
| HDB HDFC Bank Limited | Fri 10/16 | 0.40 | ±9.1% | $112.9B |
| IBN ICICI Bank Limited | Fri 10/16 | 0.40 | ±5.8% | $99.9B |
| TRV The Travelers Compani… | Fri 10/16 BMO | 6.86 | ±6.5% | $77.2B |
| TFC Truist Financial Corp… | Fri 10/16 BMO | 1.17 | ±7.6% | $56.4B |
| MTB M&T Bank Corporation | Fri 10/16 BMO | 4.98 | ±6.8% | $31.4B |
| CFG Citizens Financial Gr… | Fri 10/16 BMO | 1.38 | ±7.8% | $27.0B |
| RF Regions Financial Cor… | Fri 10/16 BMO | 0.67 | ±7.8% | $23.1B |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Mon 10/19 BMO | 1.09 | ±7.6% | $46.0B |
| STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | Mon 10/19 AMC | 5.41 | ±10.5% | $33.6B |
| WRB W.R. Berkley Corporation | Mon 10/19 AMC | 1.14 | ±6.3% | $26.7B |
| SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. | Mon 10/19 BMO | (0.28) | ±23.9% | $13.7B |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | Mon 10/19 AMC | 2.25 | ±8.0% | $11.8B |
| PAC Grupo Aeroportuario D… | Mon 10/19 | 2.68 | — | $11.7B |
| AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | Mon 10/19 AMC | 0.39 | ±7.2% | $10.3B |
| GE GE Aerospace | Tue 10/20 BMO | 2.01 | ±8.8% | $317.1B |
| PM Philip Morris Interna… | Tue 10/20 BMO | 2.33 | ±7.4% | $312.5B |
| NFLX Netflix, Inc. | Tue 10/20 AMC | 0.82 | ±10.2% | $298.0B |
| RTX RTX Corporation | Tue 10/20 BMO | 1.75 | ±7.1% | $248.4B |
| ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | Tue 10/20 AMC | 2.13 | ±10.4% | $146.8B |
| CB Chubb Limited | Tue 10/20 AMC | 6.29 | ±5.8% | $132.6B |
| COF Capital One Financial… | Tue 10/20 AMC | 5.43 | ±8.2% | $122.3B |
| MMM 3M Company | Tue 10/20 BMO | 2.41 | ±7.7% | $84.4B |
| GM General Motors Company | Tue 10/20 BMO | 3.50 | ±9.2% | $72.2B |
| NOC Northrop Grumman Corp… | Tue 10/20 BMO | 7.21 | ±7.9% | $68.8B |
| AMX America Movil, S.A.B.… | Tue 10/20 AMC | 0.46 | ±7.8% | $66.6B |
| MSCI MSCI Inc. | Tue 10/20 BMO | 5.01 | ±8.4% | $40.8B |
| UAL United Airlines Holdi… | Tue 10/20 AMC | 2.91 | ±11.2% | $34.9B |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | Tue 10/20 BMO | 2.47 | ±9.3% | $27.4B |
| HAL Halliburton Company | Tue 10/20 BMO | 0.58 | ±9.2% | $27.1B |
| KEY KeyCorp | Tue 10/20 BMO | 0.46 | ±7.1% | $21.4B |
| OMC Omnicom Group Inc. | Tue 10/20 AMC | 2.68 | ±7.8% | $21.0B |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | Tue 10/20 BMO | 2.10 | ±8.6% | $17.7B |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | Tue 10/20 AMC | 2.69 | ±6.9% | $17.3B |
| EFX Equifax, Inc. | Tue 10/20 BMO | 2.21 | ±12.6% | $17.1B |
| NLY Annaly Capital Manage… | Tue 10/20 AMC | 0.78 | ±5.9% | $13.8B |
| MLI Mueller Industries, Inc. | Tue 10/20 BMO | — | ±8.6% | $13.4B |
| HAS Hasbro, Inc. | Tue 10/20 BMO | 1.88 | ±10.1% | $13.0B |
| VICR Vicor Corporation | Tue 10/20 BMO | 1.38 | ±25.5% | $12.1B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | Tue 10/20 BMO | 1.35 | ±9.2% | $11.5B |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 0.23 | ±9.9% | $1.48T |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | Wed 10/21 AMC | 2.17 | ±13.9% | $401.2B |
| TXN Texas Instruments Inc… | Wed 10/21 AMC | 2.39 | ±11.1% | $263.2B |
| SAP SAP SE | Wed 10/21 AMC | 2.04 | ±10.2% | $260.9B |
| TMO Thermo Fisher Scienti… | Wed 10/21 BMO | 6.40 | ±8.9% | $241.1B |
| IBM International Busines… | Wed 10/21 AMC | 2.89 | ±10.2% | $213.5B |
| ABT Abbott Laboratories | Wed 10/21 BMO | 1.42 | ±7.5% | $170.4B |
| T AT&T Inc. | Wed 10/21 BMO | 0.59 | ±7.6% | $170.4B |
| NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | Wed 10/21 BMO | 1.20 | ±6.3% | $161.4B |
| DHR Danaher Corporation | Wed 10/21 BMO | 1.92 | ±9.3% | $152.9B |
| CME CME Group Inc. | Wed 10/21 BMO | 2.95 | ±6.9% | $99.4B |
| CSX CSX Corporation | Wed 10/21 AMC | 0.53 | ±8.4% | $87.7B |
| ELV Elevance Health, Inc. | Wed 10/21 BMO | 4.66 | ±9.7% | $87.0B |
| MCO Moody's Corporation | Wed 10/21 BMO | 4.24 | ±7.8% | $79.4B |
| URI United Rentals, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 13.72 | ±11.5% | $65.4B |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brak… | Wed 10/21 BMO | 2.72 | ±6.9% | $47.4B |
| WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 1.51 | ±6.4% | $39.4B |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | Wed 10/21 BMO | 2.86 | ±7.8% | $30.8B |
| CCI Crown Castle Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 1.16 | ±9.1% | $29.3B |
| PKG Packaging Corporation… | Wed 10/21 AMC | 2.94 | ±7.9% | $20.5B |
| RS Reliance, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 6.75 | ±7.7% | $20.3B |
| LUV Southwest Airlines Company | Wed 10/21 AMC | 0.63 | ±10.4% | $20.2B |
| MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 4.45 | ±14.6% | $16.8B |
| ROL Rollins, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 0.34 | ±9.2% | $15.5B |
| PNFP Pinnacle Financial Pa… | Wed 10/21 AMC | 2.61 | ±9.1% | $14.3B |
| GL Globe Life Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 4.87 | ±7.0% | $12.8B |
| GGG Graco Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 0.82 | ±7.3% | $12.7B |
| SEIC SEI Investments Company | Wed 10/21 AMC | 1.58 | ±8.2% | $12.4B |
| KNX Knight Transportation, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 0.75 | ±10.2% | $10.6B |
| EGP EastGroup Properties, Inc. | Wed 10/21 AMC | 2.42 | ±5.4% | $10.5B |
| MOH Molina Healthcare Inc | Wed 10/21 AMC | 0.73 | ±14.6% | $10.2B |
| PG Procter & Gamble Comp… | Thu 10/22 BMO | 1.89 | ±5.4% | $350.0B |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | Thu 10/22 BMO | 3.44 | ±6.3% | $165.3B |
| WDC Western Digital Corporation | Thu 10/22 AMC | 3.97 | ±14.2% | $146.9B |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | Thu 10/22 BMO | 18.45 | ±12.2% | $127.8B |
| NEM Newmont Corporation | Thu 10/22 AMC | 1.92 | ±10.1% | $121.8B |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | Thu 10/22 BMO | 7.25 | ±7.4% | $117.2B |
| SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. | Thu 10/22 BMO | 3.12 | ±12.3% | $108.4B |
| BX Blackstone Inc. | Thu 10/22 BMO | 1.33 | ±9.9% | $84.6B |
| BCS Barclays PLC | Thu 10/22 BMO | 0.69 | ±10.2% | $76.7B |
| CMCSA Comcast Corporation | Thu 10/22 BMO | 0.98 | ±10.5% | $75.3B |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corp… | Thu 10/22 BMO | 3.50 | ±6.0% | $71.2B |
| HON Honeywell Internation… | Thu 10/22 BMO | 2.17 | ±7.6% | $65.5B |
| FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | Thu 10/22 AMC | 12.42 | ±16.8% | $60.1B |
| NOK Nokia Corporation | Thu 10/22 BMO | 0.08 | ±14.8% | $58.2B |
| NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | Thu 10/22 BMO | 1.02 | ±6.9% | $51.6B |
| ARGX argenx SE | Thu 10/22 BMO | 7.48 | ±10.2% | $50.8B |
| BBD Banco Bradesco Sa | Thu 10/22 AMC | 0.13 | ±14.0% | $47.5B |
| BBDO Banco Bradesco Sa | Thu 10/22 AMC | — | — | $47.5B |
| CBRE CBRE Group, Inc. | Thu 10/22 BMO | 1.98 | ±9.9% | $38.0B |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | Thu 10/22 BMO | 5.79 | ±8.3% | $36.0B |
| PCG PG&E Corp | Thu 10/22 BMO | 0.40 | ±9.8% | $34.0B |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares… | Thu 10/22 BMO | 0.39 | ±8.3% | $31.1B |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | Thu 10/22 AMC | 2.42 | ±8.9% | $26.9B |
| DGX Quest Diagnostics Inc… | Thu 10/22 BMO | 2.85 | ±7.9% | $25.5B |
| DOV Dover Corporation | Thu 10/22 BMO | 2.85 | ±7.4% | $25.4B |
| PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | Thu 10/22 BMO | 2.62 | ±8.9% | $21.3B |
| DOW Dow Inc. | Thu 10/22 BMO | 0.68 | ±10.2% | $20.7B |
| CRS Carpenter Technology … | Thu 10/22 BMO | 2.94 | ±13.2% | $19.2B |
| SSNC SS&C Technologies Hol… | Thu 10/22 AMC | 1.59 | ±8.1% | $18.9B |
| SNA Snap-On Incorporated | Thu 10/22 BMO | 4.91 | ±6.6% | $18.6B |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | Thu 10/22 BMO | 0.40 | ±10.9% | $17.4B |
| ALLE Allegion plc | Thu 10/22 BMO | 2.48 | ±8.2% | $12.8B |
| DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | Thu 10/22 AMC | 1.82 | ±12.2% | $11.3B |
| AXP American Express Company | Fri 10/23 BMO | 4.50 | ±6.9% | $208.1B |
| GD General Dynamics Corp… | Fri 10/23 BMO | 4.14 | ±5.8% | $89.3B |
| E ENI S.p.A. | Fri 10/23 | 1.85 | ±8.6% | $87.5B |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | Fri 10/23 BMO | 2.99 | ±6.5% | $75.4B |
| SLB SLB Limited | Fri 10/23 BMO | 0.62 | ±8.7% | $72.7B |
| FCNCA First Citizens BancSh… | Fri 10/23 BMO | 46.61 | ±7.9% | $23.3B |
| RCI Rogers Communication, Inc. | Fri 10/23 BMO | 0.86 | ±8.2% | $17.0B |
| RDY Dr. Reddy's Laborator… | Fri 10/23 | 0.16 | ±22.4% | $10.2B |
| VZ Verizon Communications Inc. | Mon 10/26 BMO | 1.28 | ±6.4% | $192.6B |
| WELL Welltower Inc. | Mon 10/26 AMC | 1.64 | ±6.7% | $160.8B |
| CDNS Cadence Design System… | Mon 10/26 AMC | 1.60 | ±10.9% | $96.1B |
| NUE Nucor Corporation | Mon 10/26 AMC | 5.83 | ±10.8% | $55.8B |
| PSA Public Storage | Mon 10/26 AMC | 4.27 | ±6.3% | $53.4B |
| CLS Celestica, Inc. | Mon 10/26 AMC | 2.88 | ±17.0% | $40.8B |
| HIG The Hartford Insuranc… | Mon 10/26 AMC | 3.08 | ±6.7% | $35.1B |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | Mon 10/26 AMC | 3.32 | ±12.6% | $26.1B |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial … | Mon 10/26 AMC | 1.91 | ±6.5% | $25.4B |
| PFG Principal Financial G… | Mon 10/26 AMC | 2.52 | ±7.1% | $23.5B |
| BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | Mon 10/26 AMC | 1.09 | ±8.5% | $21.3B |
| PKX POSCO HOLDINGS INC. | Mon 10/26 | 1.29 | ±9.7% | $18.4B |
| CX Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. | Mon 10/26 BMO | — | ±7.0% | $14.5B |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | Mon 10/26 AMC | 0.79 | ±16.5% | $12.7B |
| RMBS Rambus, Inc. | Mon 10/26 AMC | 0.65 | ±19.9% | $11.8B |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutic… | Mon 10/26 AMC | 1.13 | ±10.1% | $10.6B |
| UHS Universal Health Serv… | Mon 10/26 AMC | 5.37 | ±9.7% | $10.4B |
Showing 1–8 of 156
Page 1 of 20
Market Commentary
Updated hourly
📊 Market Overview
The market is caught between two competing forces and it shows. Energy geopolitics are the real story today: fresh strikes in Ukraine have lit a fire under oil, which is now up sharply and pulling the Dow higher on the back of energy and industrials. Meanwhile, the tech complex is getting hammered, with chip stocks leading the selloff as yields refuse to crack lower and the growth narrative gets tested. This is old-school risk-off wrapped in a confusing bow. The S&P 500 is practically flat but that masks rot underneath, and the VIX bump tells you smart money is hedging against the uneven outcomes we're facing. The real problem: big tech has been the crutch holding up the broad index all year, and it's wobbling just as macro uncertainty spikes.
The sector divergence screams institutional repositioning toward actual economic sensitivity. Energy, staples, and real estate are hoarding volume while the high-beta Nasdaq slides, and that's no accident; flows are clearly rotating from duration plays into cyclicals that benefit when oil shock passes through to inflation and rates stay higher for longer. The cross-asset picture is where the tension lives. Bonds are holding firm despite energy strength (the long end even rallied slightly), copper is surging in tandem with oil, and the dollar is quietly grinding higher while emerging market currencies crumble. That's a classic setup for stagflation fears: growth concerns keeping yields anchored while commodities spike on real supply shocks. Tech's weakness and small cap struggles are the canaries here, signaling that the market knows rate cuts have ended and the runway is getting shorter.
⚠️ Risks & Opportunities
• Breadth collapse is real; the Dow's 0.34% pop masks a Nasdaq down 0.68% and Russell 2000 down 0.37%, meaning large-cap defensives are masking weakness across 75% of the market, a setup that historically precedes rotation or correction.
• CPI and retail sales prints Wednesday and Thursday are live grenades with yields already at 24-year highs and real rates in positive territory, so a beat on inflation or weakness on demand could trigger a sharp vol spike and break the SPX's sideways chop decisively lower.
• Oil up 1.6% on Ukraine energy strikes while gold gets sold off 0.54% and copper rallies 1.02% signals stagflationary pressure, not risk-on, yet equity weakness is mild because mega-cap tech still anchors sentiment; this disconnect snaps hard if energy keeps accelerating past $95.
• Nasdaq 100 leading the selloff with mega-cap semiconductors (Micron, Lumentum) rolling over while small caps languish suggests the index's record rally was a crowded trade on 7 to 10 stocks, making any correction in that cohort cascade faster than the market-cap weighted picture shows.
• Fed Chair Warsh speaks Thursday right after retail data; if he sounds hawkish on sticky inflation, the bond market will reprice aggressively and force equity multiples lower, especially in high-beta names already underwater on sentiment.
• Short the Nasdaq 100 relative to the Dow into Wednesday's CPI; if inflation surprises hot, tech gets hammered on rate fears and duration risk, but large industrial cyclicals have already priced in macro drag and will stabilize first.
🚀 Notable Movers
- META rose as the Magnificent Seven remain a defensive positioning trade amid tech sector weakness, with investors rotating into mega-cap AI leaders while the Nasdaq lags.
- SHOP climbed on renewed conviction in e-commerce infrastructure plays as growth investors rotate away from rate-sensitive discretionary spending into software-as-a-service efficiency stories.
- ACN gained as consulting and enterprise AI implementation services catch a bid on expectations for capital expenditure cycles tied to AI infrastructure buildout, offsetting broader tech volatility.
- TTE, COP, and VZ all moved higher in a cluster as energy and dividend-paying telecom stocks benefit from crude surging 1.6% on geopolitical supply concerns and from capital rotation into defensive, high-yielding names ahead of potential rate volatility.
- MDT and ELV picked up as healthcare investors seek stability; medical device and managed care plays typically outperform when equity volatility spikes and growth stocks stumble.
- PLD and ASX edged up on real estate and semiconductor assembly strength respectively, with PLD riding heavy REIT volume and ASX benefiting from equipment demand tied to AI chip production cycles.
- LITE crashed 10% as optical components and laser-based networking gear get hammered on fears that telecom capex may decelerate if enterprise software spending disappoints or capex discipline tightens in a higher-for-longer rate environment.
- GLW and CIEN both dropped sharply as optical and networking hardware plays face the same capex headwind, with telecom infrastructure suppliers caught in a whipsaw between AI demand narratives and real concerns about spending discipline.
- SNDK tumbled 6% amid memory chip sector weakness; excess NAND and DRAM inventory pressure, combined with Buffett's recent cash warnings, has spooked semiconductor investors despite near-term server demand.
- BE and COHR sold off as AI infrastructure plays and advanced materials suppliers correct after a massive run, with profit-taking accelerating on concerns that power and cooling valuations have gotten ahead of actual deployment timelines.
- MRNA declined 5% as biotech underperforms in a tech selloff; the stock trades well above consensus targets and lacks near-term catalysts to justify premium valuations in a volatility-prone environment.
- NBIS, ALAB, and CVNA all retreated as small-cap and speculative tech names get hit hardest when growth flows reverse; insider selling at CVNA and stretched valuations across the semiconductor supply chain make them vulnerable to de-risking.
Referenced News Articles
S&P 500:
- S&P 500 is little changed to start the week; Micron leads tech lower: Live updates - CNBC - CNBC
- Stock Market Today: Dow gains but S&P 500, Nasdaq slip as chip stocks dip and oil prices rise - MarketWatch - MarketWatch
- Stock market today: Dow gains, Nasdaq slips as oil prices rise - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
- Stock Market Today: Dow Edges Up, Oil Gains on Fresh Energy Strikes in Ukraine — Live Updates - WSJ - WSJ
- A handful of tech stocks are masking an ugly S&P 500 problem - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
Dow Jones:
- Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Drops As Lumentum Dives; Tanker Firm Navios Glides Into Buy Zone (Live Coverage) - Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Business Daily
- S&P 500 is little changed to start the week; Micron leads tech lower: Live updates - CNBC - CNBC
- Stock Market Today: Dow Rises, S&P 500, Nasdaq Fall on Columbus Day; Micron, IREN, Sandisk, More Movers - Barron's - Barron's
- Dow Jones Industrial Average Gets Spotlight: 5 Earnings Reports Representing 25% of ETF’s Assets On Deck - Benzinga - Benzinga
- Caterpillar Leads Dow Slide in Steepest Drop Since July - WSJ - WSJ
NASDAQ-100:
- US stocks hover near their latest record in mixed trading on Wall Street; Dow Jones rose and Nasdaq composite slipped - ABC7 Chicago - ABC7 Chicago
- The Stock Market Is Repeating a Pattern Seen Only Once Since 1871. Here's What History Says Comes Next. - The Motley Fool - The Motley Fool
- How has the Nasdaq performed so far in 2026? - Chase Bank - Chase Bank
- Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow Futures Gain, Nasdaq 100 Falls as Iran Flags ‘Inadequate’ US Response t - Benzinga - Benzinga
- Wall Street finishes its record-setting week with gains - WRAL - WRAL
Russell 2000:
- E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures (DEC6) Price Trend Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo - Moomoo
- 3 Russell 2000 Stocks with Warning Signs - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
- Mapping the Market: US small cap stocks ripe for a rebound - Reuters - Reuters
- Russell 2000 Today: Oil Jumps, Yields Near 24-Year High - Admirals - Admirals
- As Yields Surged, Small-Cap Stocks Were Hit Hard - WSJ - WSJ
Movers News
Gainers:
- META: Jamie Dimon Sharpened His Warning About a Looming Corporate Credit Squeeze, Saying Global Competition for Capital Means "The Market Will Ask for More." Here's Why That Warning Matters for Borrowers and Bond Investors. - The Motley Fool
- SHOP: Better E-Commerce Stock: Coupang vs. Shopify - The Motley Fool
- TTE: SLB & TotalEnergies Expand Digital Subsurface Alliance With Chevron - Zacks Investment Research
- VZ: AST SpaceMobile vs. Intuitive Machines: Which Space Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? - The Motley Fool
- COP: ConocoPhillips (COP) is a Top-Ranked Growth Stock: Should You Buy? - Zacks Investment Research
- ACN: Take the Zacks Approach to Beat the Markets: HF Sinclair, Accenture & FirstCash in Focus - Zacks Investment Research
- PLD: A Battle of REIT ETFs: Which REIT ETF Offers Better Value for Income-Oriented Investors? - The Motley Fool
- ASX: ASE Technology Hldg (ASX) Is a Great Choice for 'Trend' Investors, Here's Why - Zacks Investment Research
- MDT: Abbott Laboratories vs. Intuitive Surgical: Which Healthcare Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? - The Motley Fool
- ELV: CVS Health Trades at a Discount to Industry: How to Play the Stock? - Zacks Investment Research
Losers:
- SNDK: Prediction: Sandisk Stock Will Be Worth This Much at the End of 2026 - The Motley Fool
- GLW: Caterpillar vs. Corning: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? - The Motley Fool
- LITE: New Strong Buy Stocks for October 9th - Zacks Investment Research
- MRNA: Tempus AI Expands Strategic Collaborations to Drive Future Growth - Zacks Investment Research
- BE: Bloom Energy vs. NextEra Energy: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? - The Motley Fool
- CIEN: Q3 Earnings Season Begins: Global Week Ahead - Zacks Investment Research
- COHR: WCN Benefits From Buyouts & Global Waste-Management Market Expansion - Zacks Investment Research
- NBIS: CRWV Shares Slide 25% in 6 Months: Time to Buy, Hold or Cut Losses? - Zacks Investment Research
- ALAB: Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - Zacks Investment Research
- CVNA: Carvana (CVNA) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights - Zacks Investment Research
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Bond Volatility Just Spiked While the VIX Slept. Is That a Signal to Buy Puts?
October 2, 2026
The MOVE index jumped 39% in a month while the VIX barely moved, and headlines say it's time to buy puts. We checked every similar split since 2004. The divergence is real, but as a signal to buy puts it has a poor record. Here are the numbers, episode by episode.
treasuriesvolatilityhedgingriskbacktestingstatistics
National polls
Polls & oddsTrump approval36.3% / 61.1%
net −24.8approve −1.1 in 30d
Generic ballotD +8.4
D 50.3 · R 41.9margin +1.6 in 30d
HouseD 90%
SenateD 63%
Average of the major poll aggregators, past 12 months. Control odds from prediction markets.
Mortgage rates
Rates & calculator30-yr fixed · estimate7.42%
+0 bp since last print$2,776/mo on $400,000
- 15-yr fixed
- 6.74% +117 bp in a year
- 30-yr jumbo
- 7.36% +93 bp in a year
- 30-yr FHA
- 7.18% +109 bp in a year
- 10-yr Treasury
- 5.240% +2 bp Fri Oct 9
Average rate borrowers locked, re-priced with the 10-year Treasury between daily prints. Not a quote.