Updated hourly, 6 AM – 4 PM ET
GOOGL plunged 12.8% after missing on AI metrics, dragging tech and comms services lower. Nasdaq sank 1.4% as rotation favored healthcare and utilities. Cats disappointed too. Fed hold kept bond yields lower, supporting defensives and small caps. Selective damage, not systemic panic.
Tech stumbled hard on earnings disappointment. GOOGL cratered 12%, dragging the Nasdaq down 1.1% while healthcare and real estate found footing. Small caps rallied; rates retreated. The AI trade just got real again.
Nasdaq futures tanking 0.88% after Google's earnings miss; Nasdaq 100 leading the selloff while small caps hold steady. Oil sliding 1.5% on Iran chatter. Fed paused rates yesterday but markets still digesting tech disappointment. GOOGL weighing heavy this morning.
Fed holds steady, stocks shrug it off. Tech leads the charge as chip stocks surge on AI infrastructure spending. ORCL soars over 10% on expanded NVIDIA partnership. Valuations remain stretched, but momentum's still the name of the game.
Chip stocks rally hard on AI infrastructure demand; SKHY leads the charge with 12.6% pop as SpaceX and others ramp capex. Broader market treads water into Fed decision with energy outperforming. Russell 2000 stuck in correction territory. Oil surges on geopolitical risks.
Nasdaq futures up 0.45% as chip stocks lead the charge; crude rallies 1.64% while metals sink across the board. Tech outperforming ahead of Big Tech earnings and the Fed decision. Small caps struggling, Russell 2000 futures down 0.18%. Watch QQQ for momentum confirmation at the open.
Nasdaq pops 1.3% as chip stocks extend their rally for a second straight day; oil weakness helps; energy sector takes the hit. CLS leads with a massive 12% surge.
Tech rallies on chip strength as oil retreats; WDC leads the charge with an 8.5% pop. Nasdaq outpaces with a 1.4% gain while energy stocks take it on the chin. Options flow steering the S&P 500 higher despite conflicting narratives on the day.
Futures creeping higher this morning as tech bounces on Anthropic IPO buzz; Nasdaq 100 up 0.32%, Russell 2000 joining the party. Copper surging 1.13% while energy slides and silver tanks 1.73%. Comms services lagging hard on heavy volume. Earnings avalanche ahead. TSLA leading the charge pre-open.
Tech gets the spotlight as Nasdaq jumps 1% on Anthropic IPO buzz, but breadth is crumbling. Mag Seven weakness dragging the S&P 500 lower for a third straight day below the 50-day. Brazil stocks in freefall. PBR.A
Tech surges on Anthropic IPO buzz while Brazil stocks crater. Semiconductor strength carries the day; TSLA leads the charge with a 5.8% pop. Fed decision and earnings deluge loom large this week.
Futures grinding higher on a mixed morning. Crude sliding 2.2% after last week's rout, natural gas crashing 4.9%, and gold catching a bid. Nasdaq futures lagging slightly while small caps and Dow lead. Big week ahead with earnings season ramping and Fed decision looming. Market trying to find its footing after taking lumps last week. IWM outperforming.

Stock Market Dashboard

Live indices, movers, options and volatility · Oct 29, 2026

Pre-market Run screener

Today's economic data

Actual vs forecast history

Times ET · updates automatically as numbers are released · σ = surprise vs the indicator's typical forecast miss

Top moversOct 29

SymbolLastChgRel volMkt cap
GKOS Glaukos Corporation 240.88 +32.77% 4.5x $10.7B
ADT ADT Inc. 9.88 +33.33% 21.0x $5.4B
BHC Bausch Health Companies Inc 8.89 +28.47% 9.9x $2.6B
CROX Crocs, Inc. 149.78 +25.14% 4.3x $5.7B
FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. Comm… 195.59 +17.02% 1.7x $17.2B
CVNA Carvana Co. 68.49 +15.99% 2.4x $65.0B
GEN Gen Digital Inc. Common Stock 28.20 +15.81% 1.1x $14.6B
INSM Insmed, Inc. 111.73 +15.21% 3.0x $21.2B

Sector heat map

Pre-mkt

Pre-market: colour = change since yesterday's close, box size = volume so far vs the 20-day average at this time of day.

Fed rate odds

FedWatch
Dec 9 FOMCimplied
Hold
24%
+25bp
76%
Jan 27 FOMCimplied
Hold
74%
+25bp
26%

EFFR 3.88% · market-implied

Screeners

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Economic calendar

TimeEventImpactActualFcstPrev
Today
Fri 10/30 08:30Employment Cost Index q/qM0.8%0.9%
Fri 10/30 09:45Chicago PMIL55.858.8
Fri 10/30 12:00FOMC Member Daly SpeaksL——
Fri 10/30 12:30FOMC Member Musalem SpeaksL——
Mon, Nov 2early look · forecasts to come
Mon 11/2 10:00Construction Spending m/mL—0.9%
Tue, Nov 3early look · forecasts to come
Tue 11/3 10:00JOLTS Job OpeningsM—7.08M
Tue 11/3 10:00Factory Orders m/mL—0.1%
Wed, Nov 4early look · forecasts to come
Wed 11/4 08:30Trade BalanceL—-105.6B
Showing 1–8 of 17
Page 1 of 2

US events · times ET · H high · M medium · L low impact

Upcoming earnings

Calendar

BMO before market open AMC after market close time not announced

SymbolDateEPS estExp. moveMkt cap
XOM ExxonMobil Holdings C… Fri 10/30 BMO 4.12 ±6.6% $748.5B
ABBV AbbVie Inc. Fri 10/30 BMO 3.73 ±6.4% $505.4B
CVX Chevron Corporation Fri 10/30 BMO 4.87 ±6.6% $452.8B
AZN AstraZeneca PLC Fri 10/30 BMO 2.60 ±6.4% $264.6B
BP BP p.l.c. Fri 10/30 BMO 2.66 ±8.2% $128.1B
SNY Sanofi Fri 10/30 BMO 1.63 ±6.8% $103.0B
GD General Dynamics Corp… Fri 10/30 BMO 4.12 ±6.3% $95.9B
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuti… Fri 10/30 BMO 16.42 ±8.2% $83.7B
Showing 1–8 of 373
Page 1 of 47

Market Commentary

Updated hourly
Updated: Live Data

📊 Market Overview

Alphabet's earnings miss has cracked the AI trade wide open, and the market is finally asking uncomfortable questions about whether megacap tech can deliver returns that justify valuations built on hype. When Google stumbles, it matters because the entire tech sector has been riding on the assumption that artificial intelligence spending translates cleanly into earnings. Caterpillar's weak outlook adds another layer of concern, signaling that business investment may be cooling even as the Fed holds rates steady. This is a reality check moment, not a crash. The VIX barely budged because investors see selective damage rather than systemic risk. But the divergence tells the story: Nasdaq down 1.4%, Russell 2000 up nearly 1%, small caps benefiting from a rotation out of mega-cap concentration. Risk-off, but surgical.

The bond market is screaming what equities haven't fully processed yet. Treasuries rallying across the curve while tech sells off reveals institutional money rotating into safety and duration, betting that earnings disappointments will eventually force the Fed's hand lower next year. Healthcare and real estate are exploding higher on heavy volume, classic defensive positioning that says portfolio managers expect chop ahead. The real tell is the Russell 2000 outperforming the Nasdaq by nearly 2.5% in futures; that's not small cap exuberance, that's profit-taking from the mega-cap concentration trade and repositioning into names that haven't been hammered on valuation. Copper and silver rolling over alongside equities keeps macro risk in the picture, but the currency moves (peso getting punished, pound and franc firm) suggest this is more about US earnings anxiety than a global slowdown. Energy holding steady while metals crack is the outlier worth watching; if oil breaks below support, that changes the calculus on stagflation risk fast.

⚠️ Risks & Opportunities

• Alphabet's collapse is exposing real cracks in the AI trade, not just sentiment wobbles; when mega-cap growth falters on earnings, rotating into Healthcare and Utilities at 2%+ gains tells you large money is genuinely spooked on valuation, not repositioning within tech.

• Russell 2000 outperformance (up 1% today, mid-cap 400 up 1.2%) against a collapsing Nasdaq is a dangerous signal of desperation, not conviction; small caps rally when rates fall or recession fears spike, yet 10Y yields are up 44bps, suggesting this is pure short-covering and will reverse hard once Alphabet stabilizes.

• GDP and Core PCE coming today are the real landmine; if growth prints weak but inflation stays sticky, you get the worst outcome for equities (stagflation fears) and bonds snap lower, which torpedoes the small cap pop and re-crushes rates-sensitive sectors that just rallied.

• Bonds rallying 40-70bps across the curve despite no Fed cut announcement is backwards unless markets are pricing recession by year-end; pair this with 10Y up 44bps in futures and you've got a genuine flight-to-quality bid that will evaporate if today's data doesn't confirm demand destruction.

• Tech shorts are locking in profits into the Nasdaq 100 down 1.36% but haven't broken the back of the move; Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta haven't reported yet and are still holding, so this is a Mag 7 rotation trade, not capitulation; fade the small-cap strength into the data dump.

• Natural gas down 3.6% on no obvious catalyst while oil flatlines suggests energy traders expect demand destruction in Q4, which pairs dangerously with the small-cap rally; if industrial production rolls over (Caterpillar already warned), that bid in Russell 2000 gets demolished by mid-November.

🚀 Notable Movers

  • LLY surged on expanding obstructive sleep apnea pipeline opportunities with 22+ drugs in development across the competitive landscape, signaling major commercial upside in an underserved therapeutic area.
  • LHX jumped after beating Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, validating strong defense spending and aerospace demand that benefits its broad portfolio of systems and sensors.
  • HWM rallied as Boeing's supply chain stabilizes with higher order books, lifting near-term visibility for precision aerospace components and defense contractors across the sector.
  • LNG popped on contract backlog expansion following favorable LNG supply deal discussions, locking in long-term cash flows as energy demand remains robust globally.
  • HEI climbed alongside peers in aerospace and defense, catching bid from institutional money rotating into industrials with visible earnings growth ahead of next quarter's releases.
  • CVNA surged 16% on pre-earnings positioning and market rotation toward consumer cyclicals, appearing to reflect optimism about improving used-car market dynamics and operational leverage.
  • NXPI gained on Q3 earnings beat and revenue outperformance, plus confirmed strength in automotive semiconductors (via Volkswagen partnership) and data center exposure, two secular growth pillars.
  • KLAC and semiconductor capital equipment beneficiaries climbed on record foundry demand signals and sustained data center investment, as peers like Lam Research post gangbuster outlooks.
  • MO tacked on 5% as income-focused buyers stepped in ahead of Q3 earnings, with the dividend yield and 57-year payout streak providing ballast against broader tech weakness.
  • DASH edged higher on light volume, likely catching reflected strength from consumer discretionary and delivery exposure to grocery expansion, though headlines remained thin.
  • NOW plummeted 27% after Q3 earnings likely disappointed on subscription growth or margin compression, forcing a major reset of cloud software valuations; SAP's Addison consolidation may have signaled competitive pressure in enterprise software.
  • GOOGL and GOOG both cratered 12.5% on a class-action securities lawsuit alleging investor harm from undisclosed violations spanning May through July, dragging the ad tech and cloud businesses into reputational crosshairs.
  • MRVL tanked 13% despite being a primary AI beneficiary, likely punished for advanced Lumentum acquisition talks that signal desperation to lock down optical interconnect bottlenecks at bloated valuations; deal risk and integration uncertainty hammered sentiment.
  • CAT dropped 9% despite beating Q3 earnings and revenue, suggesting the market is pricing in peak cycle for construction equipment and mining demand; heavy machinery cyclicals struggle when rates stay elevated.
  • MU fell 5% alongside SNDK as memory chip weakness spilled over from macro slowdown fears and inventory correction concerns in DRAM and NAND, despite data center tailwinds.
  • INTC shed 4% in line with semiconductor complex selloff, losing ground as Marvell's stumble and Anthropic's AI capex boom underscore Intel's ongoing struggle to recapture leadership in custom silicon and server processors.
  • AMZN retreated 4% as broad technology downdraft and potential AWS margin pressure from rising energy costs for data centers weighed on valuation; SAP's office consolidation also signals tighter enterprise IT spending.
  • CRM fell 4.5% in a broad software correction, likely reflecting margin concerns and slower enterprise AI adoption cycles now pricing into SaaS multiples across the cloud infrastructure complex.
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Anthropic's S-1: $141 Billion Raised, $132 Billion Unspent
October 27, 2026

Anthropic raised $141 billion, still has $132 billion of it, and reported an $80.7 billion loss anyway. We read the whole S-1 to work out how all three are true, who is really paying for the data centers, how the five share classes and the staged lock-up work, and which seven numbers in the next filing will decide the deal.

ipoaisec-filingsinvesting

National polls

Polls & odds
Trump approval36.7% / 60.7%
net −24.0approve −0.4 in 30d
Generic ballotD +8.5
D 51.5 · R 43.0margin +0.3 in 30d
House
D 93%
Senate
D 68%

Average of the major poll aggregators, past 12 months. Control odds from prediction markets.

Mortgage rates

Rates & calculator
30-yr fixed · estimate7.19%
-3 bp since last print$2,714/mo on $400,000
15-yr fixed
6.54% +120 bp in a year
30-yr jumbo
7.35% +102 bp in a year
30-yr FHA
7.04% +106 bp in a year
10-yr Treasury
4.989% -6 bp Thu Oct 29

Average rate borrowers locked, re-priced with the 10-year Treasury between daily prints. Not a quote.