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🌙 After the Close

The market closed risk-off as expected, with the bond selloff and rate-hike fears from hot inflation data continuing to dominate price action through the close. Tech bore the brunt, falling over 1 percent, while financials and energy posted modest gains on elevated rate expectations and a stronger dollar. This is classic risk-off reallocation, and the equity futures are now rolling over modestly overnight as traders digest what comes next. The real question is whether this inflation scare has legs or whether the earnings calendar and technicals provide a floor.

Nothing material moved after the close that changes the overnight picture. CoreWeave beat on revenue and showed better-than-expected cash burn, nudging higher after hours, while several industrial and energy names guided up on their calls, but none of that is moving the needle on the macro trade right now. Bond futures continue lower and equities are following suit into the open; the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq futures are leading the downside, suggesting small-cap and growth tech remain under pressure as long as real yields stay elevated.

⚠️ Risks & Opportunities

• Hot CPI data today triggered a sharp repricing in rates, with 10Y yields rising 24bp and 2Y up 17bp, while tech stocks (Nasdaq down 0.6%) sold off on rate-hike fears; the cross-asset signal is unambiguous: equities are pricing in a Fed pause as less likely, and growth names are paying the price while financials and energy gained on higher real yields.

• CoreWeave beat revenue by 3.3% and guided higher, yet guidance language matters less than the fact that AI infrastructure capex remains unshaken; spot this against near-term rate volatility and you get a framework: mega-cap AI plays face near-term pressure, but infrastructure-level capex commitments (CoreWeave, Bitdeer's $200M target, Summit Midstream's 2027 well connects) remain intact, suggesting the AI investment cycle is enduring even if equity prices swing.

• Dollar strength, Treasury price weakness across the curve, and a 1.8% drop in gold futures all point to real yield demand, not risk-off positioning; this is a rates repricing, not a risk event, which means equity selling is likely to stabilize if CPI moderates at PPI on Wednesday or jobs claims Thursday confirm labor cooling without shock.

• Nvidia's ongoing pressure (part of the 1.1% tech decline) and weakness in semis remain the equity market's friction point, yet CoreWeave's strength suggests the AI infrastructure tiers beneath the chip makers are intact; if rates stabilize next week, this could flip back into a rotation within tech rather than out of it entirely.

• Watch Wednesday's Core PPI and PPI prints as the next inflection: if these roll over from today's hot CPI, rate-hike bets unwind quickly, Treasury prices recover, and the current down move in growth stocks becomes a tactical entry rather than a warning sign.

🚀 Notable Movers

• RKLB climbed 6% despite missing Q3 EPS, as the company projected Q4 revenue of $270M to $290M and flagged record backlog with first 16 Neutron launches booked into the 2030s.
• CVS jumped 4% after beating Q3 earnings by 27% on EPS and 3.5% on revenue, with the company topping estimates significantly on both lines.
• NET gained 4% following a Q3 earnings beat on both EPS and revenue, as robust enterprise demand drove sales up 39% year-over-year.
• HUM rose 3% after beating Q3 EPS by 30% despite posting a loss, with revenue matching estimates.

• NVDA fell 5% after the board launched an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang over reports he was targeted by a Chinese spy operation and following disclosures about an affair with a former Megaspeed executive.
• PS dropped 14% with no specific catalyst showing in the news, though the stock has faced pressure after Citi downgraded it to sell in recent weeks.
• SKYD fell 8% despite beating Q3 EPS by 245% and matching on revenue, as analysts drew mixed views on the combined Skydance-Warner Bros. Discovery entity and DC Studios announced a shakeup replacing James Gunn and Peter Safran.
• ONON declined 7% despite beating Q3 EPS by 40% on strong earnings performance, with no specific reason for the decline apparent in available news.
• MRNA dropped 7% with no specific catalyst in the news, though the biotech sector faced broader headwinds; the company did beat Q3 EPS handily at $0.38 versus a miss estimate of negative $1.10.
• Gold miners fell broadly, with B down 6%, GFI down 7%, CDE down 7%, and EQX down 7%, tracking a 1.8% drop in gold futures as the precious metals complex sold off alongside a rise in Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.