Dashboard — Frenzy Capital live market snapshot & analysis

Market overview · Oct 2, 2026

Today's economic data

Actual vs forecast history

Times ET · updates automatically as numbers are released · σ = surprise vs the indicator's typical forecast miss

Top movers

Top movers, market cap $2B+. Select a column header to sort.
SymbolLastChgRel volMkt cap
SYNA Synaptics Inc 121.10 +14.08% 4.7x $4.0B
MXL MaxLinear, Inc. Common Stock 104.35 +13.28% 0.4x $8.2B
IBRX ImmunityBio, Inc. Commo… 10.29 +10.88% 0.5x $10.0B
APLD Applied Digital Corpora… 26.79 +10.89% 0.5x $7.3B
IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC 80.16 +10.29% 0.8x $2.5B
BTDR Bitdeer Technologies Gr… 11.72 +10.15% 0.2x $2.9B
CRDO Credo Technology Group … 228.66 +8.80% 0.4x $36.6B
PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc.… 59.98 +9.10% 0.4x $2.8B

Sector heat map

1D

Box size = relative volume (today vs the 20-day average), colour = 1-day change.

Fed rate odds

FedWatch
Oct 28 FOMCimplied
Hold
82%
+25bp
18%
Dec 9 FOMCimplied
Hold
21%
+25bp
79%

EFFR 3.88% · market-implied

Screeners

All

Economic calendar

Upcoming US economic events, times ET. Select a column header to sort.
TimeEventImpactActualFcstPrev
Today
Fri 10/2 08:30Average Hourly Earnings m/mH0.1%0.3%0.3%
Fri 10/2 08:30Non-Farm Employment ChangeH29K89K162K
Fri 10/2 08:30Unemployment RateH4.2%4.1%4.1%
Fri 10/2 10:00Factory Orders m/mL0.1%0.9%
Fri 10/2 10:00FOMC Member Logan SpeaksL——

US events · times ET · H high · M medium · L low impact

Upcoming earnings

BMO before market open AMC after market close time not announced

Upcoming earnings in the next two weeks. Select a column header to sort.
SymbolDateEPS estExp. moveMkt cap
STZ Constellation Brands Inc Tue 10/6 AMC 3.62 ±8.4% $19.3B
RPM RPM International Inc. Tue 10/6 BMO 1.95 ±6.8% $12.6B
PEP Pepsico, Inc. Thu 10/8 BMO 2.29 ±5.7% $173.0B
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. Fri 10/9 BMO 1.96 ±9.1% $54.9B
JPM J P Morgan Chase & Co Tue 10/13 BMO 5.88 ±5.7% $879.4B
JNJ Johnson & Johnson Tue 10/13 BMO 2.90 ±6.0% $638.0B
UNH UnitedHealth Group In… Tue 10/13 BMO 4.12 ±9.2% $329.5B
GS The Goldman Sachs Gro… Tue 10/13 BMO 14.59 ±7.4% $262.2B
C Citigroup Inc. Tue 10/13 BMO 2.70 ±7.3% $217.2B
BLK BlackRock, Inc. Tue 10/13 BMO 14.19 ±7.2% $163.9B
ASML ASML Holding N.V. Wed 10/14 BMO 12.54 ±10.1% $698.2B
BAC Bank of America Corporation Wed 10/14 BMO 1.16 ±6.5% $380.6B
MS Morgan Stanley Wed 10/14 BMO 3.01 ±7.7% $295.4B
WFC Wells Fargo & Company Wed 10/14 BMO 1.84 ±6.9% $242.1B
FAST Fastenal Company Wed 10/14 BMO 0.34 ±7.0% $56.8B
STT State Street Corporation Wed 10/14 BMO 3.60 ±6.0% $48.0B
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor … Thu 10/15 BMO 4.45 ±7.3% $2.37T
SCHW The Charles Schwab Co… Thu 10/15 BMO 1.67 ±7.1% $169.0B
PLD Prologis, Inc. Thu 10/15 BMO 1.58 ±4.6% $123.1B
BNY The Bank Of New York … Thu 10/15 BMO 2.25 ±5.1% $98.1B
USB U.S. Bancorp Thu 10/15 BMO 1.33 ±6.5% $90.0B
PNC PNC Financial Service… Thu 10/15 BMO 4.97 ±5.9% $88.7B
MRSH Marsh Thu 10/15 BMO 1.96 ±4.9% $81.5B
INFY Infosys Limited Thu 10/15 0.21 ±6.5% $43.6B
IBKR Interactive Brokers G… Thu 10/15 AMC 0.67 ±9.1% $38.7B
ERIC Ericsson Thu 10/15 BMO 0.14 ±8.8% $30.8B
SNA Snap-On Incorporated Thu 10/15 BMO 4.91 ±3.4% $18.8B
WIT Wipro Limited Thu 10/15 0.04 ±73.1% $16.3B
AA Alcoa Corporation Thu 10/15 AMC 1.58 ±11.1% $11.1B
FHN First Horizon Corporation Thu 10/15 BMO 0.53 ±5.2% $10.9B
HDB HDFC Bank Limited Fri 10/16 0.40 ±5.3% $114.6B
IBN ICICI Bank Limited Fri 10/16 0.40 ±4.0% $98.6B
TRV The Travelers Compani… Fri 10/16 BMO 6.77 ±4.6% $74.4B
TFC Truist Financial Corp… Fri 10/16 BMO 1.12 ±5.3% $56.6B
MTB M&T Bank Corporation Fri 10/16 BMO 5 ±4.7% $31.4B
CFG Citizens Financial Gr… Fri 10/16 BMO 1.38 ±5.3% $26.9B
RF Regions Financial Cor… Fri 10/16 BMO 0.67 ±6.2% $22.9B

Market Commentary

Updated hourly
Updated: Live Data

📊 Market Overview

The jobs data delivered exactly what the Fed wanted to hear: enough softness to justify rate cuts without the economy tipping into outright recession. Yields collapsed across the curve, and equities seized the moment with both hands. Tech led the charge because falling rates juice multiple expansion, but the real tell here is breadth. Small caps, materials, and discretionary all moved higher alongside the mega-caps. This is risk-on, full stop. The VIX compression down to 15.58 confirms it: institutional money is rotating out of hedges and into growth. We're in a Goldilocks window where inflation isn't hot enough to scare the Fed and employment is loose enough to justify monetary relief. That's catnip for equities, and today's action reflects exactly that calculus.

But there's a fissure forming in the cross-asset picture that deserves scrutiny. While bonds are rallying hard (long-end notes and bonds up 0.45-0.48%), crude has tanked nearly 4 percent on demand concerns from that same softer labor market. Copper and precious metals are flying, which typically signals inflation hedge buying and global growth appetite, yet energy is crashing. Oil and copper usually move in lockstep during risk-on episodes; today they're diverging sharply. That's telling us something about growth expectations for late 2026. The dollar weakness (DXY down just 0.3 percent) combined with yen strength suggests safe-haven rotation is creeping in at the margins, even as equities celebrate. Don't confuse today's rally with capitulation. This looks like tactical positioning ahead of a messy earnings season and Q4 uncertainty. The bond bid is real, but it's not screaming conviction that the bulls have won the year.

⚠️ Risks & Opportunities

• The jobs report today is the real test; if employment rolls over hard while the Fed still sits at restrictive rates, equities get a reality check fast, and that 10-year yield dive from yesterday reverses just as quickly.

• Tech is running hot on the back of falling rates and a weak labor market narrative, but Nasdaq at plus 1.4 percent while crude crashes 3.7 percent and energy futures get hammered tells you this rally is defensive rotation, not broad conviction.

• Copper and silver both up over 1 percent alongside a strengthening dollar tells you real money is hedging; metals bid, equities bid, rates falling means real yields are compressing and that typically precedes a volatility spike when data surprises.

• Russell 2000 outperforming large cap by 70 basis points while the dollar edges lower signals some confidence in domestic growth, but Russell value is still underwater year-to-date, so small cap strength could evaporate fast if the jobs number disappoints.

• Oil's drop below 89 and gasoline down nearly 5 percent creates a consumer tailwind that's already priced into equity upside; if the employment data comes in soft, there's no Fed cut catalyst left and that tailwind becomes the only story supporting multiples near all-time highs.


🚀 Notable Movers

  • ARM surged 6.51% as the semiconductor complex ripped higher on broad enthusiasm for AI chip infrastructure demand, with the sector outpacing the broader market on expectations for custom silicon design wins with hyperscalers.
  • SPCX climbed 5.44% on investor conviction around Terafab's scale and SpaceX's expansion into manufacturing, positioning the company as a structural play on space infrastructure commercialization over the next decade.
  • TXN gained 4.39% alongside strength in analog and power management chips, reflecting growing demand from EV and renewable energy build-outs that require insulated gate bipolar transistors and related semiconductor components.
  • TSLA added 4.45% as battery storage markets capture investor attention on grid modernization tailwinds, with Tesla positioned as a key beneficiary of falling battery costs and AI-optimized energy infrastructure.
  • INTC advanced 3.93% as semiconductor investors rotated into legacy chipmakers on the back of massive anticipated AI infrastructure spending; the $1.3 trillion capex cycle expected next year is pulling money into the entire semiconductor value chain.
  • STX collapsed 11.58% after Micron's strong Q4 beat and guidance inadvertently exposed structural weakness in traditional hard drive demand as data centers shift to all-flash architectures for AI workloads.
  • WDC tumbled 9.33% as enterprise storage investors punished legacy HDD exposure in favor of SSD-centric competitors, following the same tech rotation that benefited higher-margin memory players like Micron.
  • SNDK slipped 2.36% on modest underperformance versus peers as traditional storage providers face headwinds from accelerating SSD adoption in hyperscaler data centers, though AI enterprise SSD demand provides some offset.
  • ACN dropped 3.38% despite beating Q4 earnings and revenue expectations, suggesting the market is discounting the consulting complex on concerns about near-term client spending pullback or margin pressure on AI-related service delivery costs.
  • SPOT fell 3.74% on sector-wide consumer discretionary digestion after a week of broad risk-on moves, with streaming stocks particularly vulnerable to rising rates and consumer spending concerns as the market pauses before a busy earnings cycle.
  • HDB declined 1.75% following multiple shareholder class action lawsuit filings and an October 13 lead plaintiff deadline, creating legal overhang and headline risk despite the bank's underlying operational fundamentals.
  • SNY lost 2.58% as European pharma took a breather during today's risk-on session, with investors locking in gains after the sector's outperformance and rotating capital into higher-beta tech plays.
  • VLO dropped 2.20% as energy futures sold off sharply on crude oil weakness, reflecting demand concerns and a pullback in refinery margin tailwinds that had supported the energy complex earlier this week.
  • GEV slipped 2.01% despite earlier positive headlines around CEO announcements and nuclear power contracts, likely profit-taking after the industrial clean energy stock's strong recent run rather than fundamental deterioration.
  • PDD edged down 1.61% on light selling pressure in the China consumer space, with the e-commerce platform tracking softer than the broader market on lingering uncertainty around domestic consumption trends.
Referenced News Articles

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National polls

Polls & odds

Average of the major poll aggregators, past 12 months. Control odds from prediction markets.

Mortgage rates

Rates & calculator
30-yr fixed · estimate7.34%
-3 bp since last print$2,753/mo on $400,000
15-yr fixed
6.65% +115 bp in a year
30-yr jumbo
7.30% +87 bp in a year
30-yr FHA
7.08% +97 bp in a year
10-yr Treasury
5.209% -3 bp today

Average rate borrowers locked, re-priced with the 10-year Treasury between daily prints. Not a quote.