Updated hourly, 6 AM – 4 PM ET
Dow crushes it with a 1.1% pop as rate relief wins the day; Russell 2000 enters correction but bounces back 1.4%. Hot inflation data sent tech spiraling, but healthcare and materials rallied hard. Treasury yields tanked, gold surging. RBLX leading the charge up 7.7%.
Dow pops 500 points while tech dumps; Treasury yields sink as investors bail on AI darlings. Rotation story intact. DELL gets hammered hardest, down 7.7% as the hardware crowd takes pain. Rates collapsing faster than conviction in mega-cap growth.
Nasdaq futures down 1.27% as AI rotation intensifies and inflation concerns stick around. Tech bleeding hard while healthcare and staples catch a bid. Treasuries climbing on rate repricing; gold up 1.67%. Small caps finally getting a breather but damage is done. QQQ taking it on the chin this morning.
Hot CPI print sent tech and chips into a tailspin. Nasdaq down 2%, small caps approaching correction territory. Healthcare, staples, and energy led as bond yields swung. Rates traders now pricing higher for longer. DELL got hammered worst, sliding 11%. Risk-off mood persists; watch if VIX holds above 16.
Hot inflation reading puts rate hike back on the table. Tech and small caps take the hit as yields surge; memory chips extending losses. Healthcare and staples hold up. DELL leads declines as growth trade unwinds. Volatility spiking; rotation into defensives intact.
Crude oil ripping 1.35% higher as energy leads pre-market; chip weakness persists with Nasdaq futures slightly red ahead of CPI data. Russell 2000 outperforming on small-cap strength. Banks and healthcare under pressure. XLE
Earnings season kicks off with mixed results. Chip stocks under pressure as memory names slide, but energy rallies on oil strength. VLO leading the way as refiners capitalize on crude's 1% pop. Banks reporting mixed, healthcare struggles. Tech divergence persists; all eyes on guidance as rates hold steady.
Energy surges on Ukraine geopolitical risks while memory chips tank; tech breadth fades as earnings season tests market resolve. AMAT leads semiconductor selloff down 6.8% on capex concerns.
Crude oil tanking 2% pre-market while memory stocks drag Nasdaq futures down 0.59%; Dow and Russell 2000 holding small gains. Energy sector outperforming on geopolitical relief. Tech weakness persisting into the open. Watch XLK for today's semiconductor rotation.
Dow edges higher on energy strength, but tech weakness drags Nasdaq lower. Oil rallies on Ukraine supply fears while chip stocks including LITE crumble. Breadth deteriorates as mega-caps mask an ugly underlying tape; small caps take it on the chin. Energy and staples lead; discretionary and semiconductors lag hard.
Markets tread water as energy rallies on geopolitical tension. Tech rolls over with chip stocks dragging; LITE leads the decline down nearly 9%. Dow squeaks higher on oil strength, but breadth remains suspect. Big earnings week and CPI data loom; traders playing it cautious.
Futures flat to slightly green as earnings season looms; copper rallies 1.2% on growth bets while nat gas tumbles 2.4%. Oil holds gains above $90. Yields steady. Real estate and healthcare leading. SPY poised for mixed open.

Stock Market Dashboard

Live indices, movers, options and volatility · Oct 15, 2026

Today's economic data

Actual vs forecast history

Times ET · updates automatically as numbers are released · σ = surprise vs the indicator's typical forecast miss

Top movers

Top movers, market cap $2B+. Select a column header to sort.
SymbolLastChgRel volMkt cap
RGC Regencell Bioscience Ho… 9.36 +15.41% 9.9x $4.0B
APPN Appian Corporation Clas… 43.91 +14.20% 1.4x $2.8B
KRMN Karman Holdings Inc. 34.04 +12.94% 1.1x $4.0B
ERIC Ericsson American Depos… 10.70 +11.69% 4.5x $31.1B
RXRX Recursion Pharmaceutica… 4.20 +12.17% 2.0x $2.0B
KD Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. 13.19 +11.83% 1.0x $2.6B
Z Zillow Group, Inc. Clas… 31.45 +11.00% 1.4x $6.4B
ZG ZILLOW GROUP INC CLASS A 32.45 +10.88% 1.1x $6.6B

Sector heat map

1D

Box size = relative volume (today vs the 20-day average), colour = 1-day change.

Fed rate odds

FedWatch
Oct 28 FOMCimplied
Hold
74%
+25bp
26%
Dec 9 FOMCimplied
Hold
10%
+25bp
90%

EFFR 3.88% · market-implied

Screeners

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Economic calendar

Upcoming US economic events, times ET. Select a column header to sort.
TimeEventImpactActualFcstPrev
Today
Thu 10/15 08:30Core PPI m/mH0.7%0.3%0.2%
Thu 10/15 08:30Core Retail Sales m/mH0.9%0.6%1.4%
Thu 10/15 08:30PPI m/mH1.3%0.6%0.4%
Thu 10/15 08:30Retail Sales m/mH0.8%0.3%1.2%
Thu 10/15 08:30Philly Fed Manufacturing IndexM20.928.237.8
Thu 10/15 08:30Unemployment ClaimsM199K199K197K
Thu 10/15 08:30Empire State Manufacturing IndexL25.512.17.6
Thu 10/15 10:00Business Inventories m/mL0.4%0.4%0.8%
Thu 10/15 10:30Natural Gas StorageL76B85B
Thu 10/15 12:00Crude Oil InventoriesL0.2M-3.2M
Thu 10/15 16:30FOMC Member Hammack SpeaksL——
Showing 1–11 of 22
Page 1 of 3

US events · times ET · H high · M medium · L low impact

Upcoming earnings

BMO before market open AMC after market close time not announced

Upcoming earnings in the next two weeks. Select a column header to sort.
SymbolDateEPS estExp. moveMkt cap
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor … Thu 10/15 BMO 4.45 −1.8% vs ±7.7% $2.31T
SCHW The Charles Schwab Co… Thu 10/15 BMO 1.66 −2.7% vs ±7.4% $165.9B
PLD Prologis, Inc. Thu 10/15 BMO 1.58 −2.7% vs ±6.7% $126.6B
BNY The Bank Of New York … Thu 10/15 BMO 2.26 +3.2% vs ±7.2% $95.7B
USB U.S. Bancorp Thu 10/15 BMO 1.32 +2.0% vs ±6.5% $88.6B
PNC PNC Financial Service… Thu 10/15 BMO 4.97 −0.4% vs ±6.1% $87.6B
MRSH Marsh Thu 10/15 BMO 1.96 +4.6% vs ±6.6% $84.5B
IBKR Interactive Brokers G… Thu 10/15 AMC 0.66 −0.6% vs ±9.7% $39.6B
Showing 1–8 of 381
Page 1 of 48

Market Commentary

Updated hourly
Updated: Live Data

📊 Market Overview

The inflation data landed hot this morning, and the market's response tells you everything about where we stand in this cycle. Tech sold off hard on the print because higher-for-longer rates threaten the terminal value math on growth stocks, but then the real money showed up in bonds and financials. The Dow's strength (up 1.1%) while the Nasdaq treads water signals a clean rotation into value and rate-sensitive names; healthcare and materials are crushing it on heavy volume, which means institutions are actively repositioning rather than panic-selling. This is risk-on, but risk-on for old-school America. The real inflation story hasn't disappeared, and the market is pricing in patient capital that can live with sticky price growth as long as the Fed holds the line on rates.

The cross-asset picture is screaming allocation shift. Treasuries are rallying hard across the curve (long bonds up 1.2%) even as equities digest higher inflation because real yields are attracting genuine demand, not just defensive hedging. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 is on fire (up 1.4%), which is the true tell: small caps benefit from a steeper yield curve and domestic rate pressure, and their outperformance versus mega-cap tech means rotation money is flowing into companies that actually need lower rates to thrive. Oil is ripping 2.8% while copper is down, which suggests the energy complex is dancing to geopolitical rhythm rather than economic softness. Gold and silver are both surging; that's not recession talk, that's inflation anxiety. The Fed's credibility is being tested right now, and the market is hedging by going long duration, long value, and long anything with pricing power. Tech will have to prove earnings can survive this regime, or money keeps walking.

⚠️ Risks & Opportunities

• Russell 2000 futures up 1.36% while Nasdaq down 0.14% signals a hard rotation out of mega-cap tech into beaten-down small caps; Russell entered correction territory recently and is now pricing in either a Fed pivot or a significant economic slowdown that benefits rate-sensitive names over growth.

• Hot inflation data this morning (Core PPI, Retail Sales all high-impact) combined with a 190bp move lower in the 10-Year Treasury screams the market is front-running a Fed rate cut cycle; don't trust this move until Warsh speaks later today, as his comments could trigger a vicious reversal if he sounds hawkish.

• Tech selling with 1.78x volume on the Nasdaq while Healthcare and Materials rally on 1.3x volume suggests institutional money is repositioning away from valuation risk; this is not a dip-buy moment for mega-cap tech, it's the beginning of a secular rotation that could last quarters.

• Gold up 2.16%, silver up 3.20%, and palladium surging 3.69% alongside a 50bp dollar decline tells you real yields have collapsed today; if nominal rates are falling faster than inflation expectations, watch the 2-Year at 4.48% because that's where the actual policy path lives and it's still sticky.

• Energy futures split badly (WTI crude up 2.76% but gasoline and heating oil down sharply) indicates demand destruction fears are winning; a weakening dollar usually lifts crude, but refineries are running scared, which is a signal that recession hedges are finally getting priced in.

• Russell strength on top of Dow outperformance (+1.11%) while the S&P 500 barely moves is a classic breadth divergence warning; small caps have rallied hard into today's data, so mean reversion risk is acute if the Fed doesn't blink at Warsh's presser.


🚀 Notable Movers

  • SERVICENOW surged as investors rotate into high-growth software names positioned to benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains, with the company's data moat seen as defensible against commoditizing software development.
  • ROBLOX jumped over 7% on strength in consumer discretionary and gaming stocks as Meta's rapid AI agent adoption creates tailwinds for immersive platform operators.
  • AEM climbed on safe-haven demand for precious metals as gold and silver futures rallied hard (up 2.16% and 3.20%), with gold miners riding the flight to quality as rate expectations soften.
  • APP rose alongside other software plays benefiting from bargain hunting in tech after heavy selling pressure, though the pending class action lawsuit provides a headwind that limited gains.
  • INTU, ADSK, EXPE, and COIN all gained 6-plus percent in a broad tech relief rally as valuations look cheap after the sector's 0.7% decline and investors cherry-pick names with solid growth narratives.
  • DELL tumbled 7% as semiconductor and PC hardware stocks corrected after a brutal tech selloff; equipment makers face cyclical headwinds as capex euphoria cools and data center build cycles normalize.
  • AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, and ANET fell 2.5% to 5% as chipmaking equipment stocks reversed hard on concerns that the AI infrastructure buildout's torrid pace may be unsustainable, with valuations stretched relative to cyclical reality.
  • CSCO dropped 3.3% as networking gear demand softens relative to investor expectations, with big tech's capex discipline potentially capping equipment vendor upside.
  • INTC fell 2.8% on broad semiconductor sector weakness and lingering doubts about the company's foundry turnaround competing against entrenched rivals like TSMC.
  • SPCX, PM, PBR, and KLAC each lost 2-3% as rotation out of mega-cap growth names and into materials, healthcare, and small caps leaves the laggards behind.
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Bond Volatility Just Spiked While the VIX Slept. Is That a Signal to Buy Puts?
October 2, 2026

The MOVE index jumped 39% in a month while the VIX barely moved, and headlines say it's time to buy puts. We checked every similar split since 2004. The divergence is real, but as a signal to buy puts it has a poor record. Here are the numbers, episode by episode.

treasuriesvolatilityhedgingriskbacktestingstatistics

National polls

Polls & odds
Trump approval36.5% / 60.9%
net −24.4approve −0.9 in 30d
Generic ballotD +8.2
D 50.4 · R 42.2margin +0.8 in 30d
House
D 90%
Senate
D 63%

Average of the major poll aggregators, past 12 months. Control odds from prediction markets.

Mortgage rates

Rates & calculator
30-yr fixed · estimate7.31%
-6 bp since last print$2,746/mo on $400,000
15-yr fixed
6.75% +131 bp in a year
30-yr jumbo
7.49% +106 bp in a year
30-yr FHA
7.15% +108 bp in a year
10-yr Treasury
5.089% -10 bp today

Average rate borrowers locked, re-priced with the 10-year Treasury between daily prints. Not a quote.