CERT Certara, Inc. Common Stock
XNAS
12.55
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
What changed
Recent filings, trades and moves- 52-Week Range
- $4.45 – $12.61
- YTD
- +43.59%
- Straddle Price
- $2.23
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.35
- Market Cap
- $1.8B
- Open
- $12.06
- Day Range
- $11.98 – $12.60
- Volume
- 2,777,324
- Prev Close
- $12.05
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.90% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.36 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 12.37% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 11.48% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +63.1pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -8.4% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.1B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -7.1% |
| Book / Price | 53.1% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 63.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 17.0% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.29 |
| Quality Score | 4/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +17.6% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $9.33 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $10.46 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 33.4% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.1B |
| Market Cap | $2B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $2.21 | 26% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 50.7× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $14.30 | 8% | median 34.0× · 9 peers |
| Peer P/B | $73.55 | 10% | median 11.5× · 10 peers |
| Peer P/S | $32.04 | 10% | median 12.3× · 10 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $9.33 | 45% | stability 85% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
- Industry (SIC)
- SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (7372) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $1.8B
- Employees
- 1,576
- List Date
- 2020-12-11
- CIK
- 0001827090
- Last Earnings
- Nov 5 before open · +9.8% vs ±13.8% expected
- Next Earnings
- ~Feb 25, 2027 (estimated)
- Headquarters
- Radnor, PA
- Homepage
- https://www.certara.com
Certara Inc accelerates medicines to patients using biosimulation software and technology to transform traditional drug discovery and development. It provides modeling and simulation, regulatory science, and assessment software and services to help clients reduce clinical trials, accelerate regulatory approval, and increase patient access to medicines. The company has its business presence in the Americas, which is also its key revenue-generating market, EMEA, and the Asia Pacific region.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 4.30% | -6.96% | 19.46% | -6.86% | 33.49% | 0.57% | 7.33% |
| Feb | -0.97% | -5.20% | -7.88% | 1.87% | -14.31% | -14.70% | -6.86% |
| Mar | -24.10% | -12.90% | 30.75% | -2.30% | -17.09% | -19.15% | -7.46% |
| Apr | 15.88% | -17.53% | 2.55% | -4.94% | 40.43% | 11.45% | 7.97% |
| May | -17.08% | 5.94% | -15.67% | -2.02% | -14.52% | -5.83% | -8.20% |
| Jun | 8.34% | 11.02% | -14.55% | -20.31% | 6.36% | 7.03% | -0.35% |
| Jul | -2.44% | 4.07% | 5.93% | 14.44% | -14.58% | 19.03% | 4.41% |
| Aug | 28.47% | -31.93% | -15.39% | -21.68% | 13.63% | 1.34% | -4.26% |
| Sep | -2.59% | -14.43% | -11.77% | -0.76% | 14.63% | 13.58% | -0.22% |
| Oct | 18.37% | -8.73% | -15.35% | -10.13% | -13.01% | 17.99% | -1.81% |
| Nov | -38.09% | 35.95% | 16.68% | 9.37% | -21.71% | 16.21%* | 3.07% |
| Dec | 6.56% | -6.73% | 20.15% | -5.67% | -0.45% | -- | 2.77% |
| Total | -22.19% | -47.72% | -0.22% | -43.26% | -8.66% | 46.36% | -12.62% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report: CERT
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key Drivers: Technical indicators suggest a range-bound market with no clear trend direction. News sentiment is mixed, with some positive articles on AI drug discovery and others highlighting potential securities laws violations.
Primary Risks: Low volatility and the potential for further consolidation in a narrow trading range.
Investment Thesis: CERT appears to be in a period of consolidation, potentially setting up for a breakout or continued sideways movement. The options market is pricing in a moderate move by expiration, but the overall sentiment remains neutral.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Positive news on AI drug discovery has had some impact on the stock price, while negative articles on potential securities laws violations have also influenced the market narrative.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Range-bound with no clear trend direction (Short-term: neutral, Medium-term: neutral, Long-term: bearish)
Support/Resistance Levels: Key levels to monitor include:
- SMA 20: $8.09
- SMA 50: $7.08
- Upper Bollinger Band: $8.54
Momentum Signals:
- RSI (14): 62.71 (neutral)
- MACD: 0.36 / Signal: -0.01 / Histogram: 0.37 (bullish)
Volume Analysis: Volume trends are mixed, with a slight increase in volume flow and open interest.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: The recent news headlines have been mostly negative, highlighting potential securities laws violations and regulatory issues. However, there has also been some positive coverage on AI drug discovery.
Sentiment Assessment: Aggregate news sentiment is NEUTRAL, with a mix of positive and negative articles.
Catalyst Identification: Upcoming earnings announcements could be a catalyst for the stock price, but no specific dates are available.
Market Narrative: The market narrative is mixed, with some positive and negative themes emerging from recent news articles. The options market is pricing in a moderate move by expiration, but overall sentiment remains neutral.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: Low volatility - stock moves less than market (beta: 0.79)
Volatility Regime: Current volatility is relatively low compared to historical levels.
Options Market Signals: IV rank: 48.8% (Medium), put/call volume ratio: 0.02 (Bullish sentiment).
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: CERT's sector, healthcare, has been performing relatively well.
Institutional Activity: Institutional interest is moderate, with some buying and selling activity.
Correlation Analysis: The stock has a low correlation to the market, indicating that it may be less affected by broader market trends.
Relative Valuation: Position within trading range - not significantly over- or under-valued.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels: Support at $8.09 (SMA 20) and resistance at $8.54 (Upper Bollinger Band).
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: A breakout above $8.54 could trigger a more significant move, while a breakdown below $7.08 (SMA 50) could indicate further consolidation.
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Upcoming earnings announcements could be a catalyst for the stock price, but no specific dates are available.
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels should be set around $8.09 and $7.08 to manage risk, with position sizing considerations based on recent volume flow and open interest.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-04 | After-Close | 13.79% | 13.60% | 0.99x | Within |
| 2021-05-06 | After-Close | 22.12% | 0.31% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2021-11-09 | After-Close | 8.99% | 4.72% | 0.53x | Within |
| 2022-03-01 | After-Close | 12.98% | 11.07% | 0.85x | Within |
| 2022-08-09 | After-Close | 19.70% | 10.86% | 0.55x | Within |
| 2022-11-07 | After-Close | 12.56% | 7.11% | 0.57x | Within |
| 2023-03-01 | After-Close | 7.32% | 17.30% | 2.36x | Exceeded |
| 2023-05-08 | After-Close | 23.61% | 10.72% | 0.45x | Within |
| 2023-08-09 | After-Close | 15.96% | 7.65% | 0.48x | Within |
| 2023-11-08 | After-Close | 11.06% | 1.36% | 0.12x | Within |
| 2024-02-29 | After-Close | 24.59% | 8.41% | 0.34x | Within |
| 2024-05-07 | After-Close | 15.57% | 7.42% | 0.48x | Within |
| 2024-08-06 | After-Close | 16.58% | 13.59% | 0.82x | Within |
| 2024-11-06 | Pre-Market | 10.91% | 5.82% | 0.53x | Within |
| 2025-02-26 | After-Close | 24.94% | 0.57% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2025-05-05 | After-Close | 20.15% | 11.03% | 0.55x | Within |
| 2025-08-06 | After-Close | 12.59% | 18.15% | 1.44x | Exceeded |
| 2025-11-06 | After-Close | 25.07% | 23.07% | 0.92x | Within |
| 2026-02-26 | Pre-Market | 49.70% | 3.19% | 0.06x | Within |
| 2026-05-11 | After-Close | 10.72% | 0.78% | 0.07x | Within |
| 2026-08-04 | Pre-Market | 43.70% | 4.65% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2026-11-05 | Pre-Market | 13.75% | 9.83% | 0.71x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
CERT Options Activity & IV Rank
Volatility Metrics
Options Flow · All expiries
ATM Options Pricing
Chain Summary
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Calendars: the long leg is valued at the short leg’s expiration (Black-Scholes at its current IV) across the range of prices the short leg’s IV implies, giving the best-case profit (R/R = that over the debit) and P(profit).
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Scanning bull put, bear call, iron condor and calendar spreads…
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 95th percentile of this name's own daily history, near the high end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Loading the implied volatility surface…
Loading the implied volatility smile…
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $16.7M | #1241 of 3716 | +103.4% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $7.2M | #1824 of 6285 | -76.0% | 13F | |
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $4.5M | #1525 of 3138 | +93.1% | 13F | |
| Point72 Hedge fund Steve Cohen | $2.5M | #1207 of 1945 | -65.8% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $15K | #3829 of 4729 | -41.4% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
CERT Institutional Ownership (13F)
Filings for 2026-06-30 · 96 already for 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEAK6 LLC | $1.97M | 89.34% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $191.26K | 8.70% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $22.93K | 1.04% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $20.24K | 0.92% | 2026-09-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
CERT Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-09-02| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Faiz Mohammed | Interim CFO | Grant (A) | +63,532 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-02 | Daniel Corcoran | SVP and General Counsel | Mixed Exer +22,830 · Tax −12,103 |
+10,727 | $5.82 | -$70.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-02 | Rona Anhalt | Chief Human Resources Officer | Mixed Exer +7,147 · Tax −2,241 |
+4,906 | $5.82 | -$13.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-15 | Matthew M Walsh | Director | Exer (M) | +15,757 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | Rosemary A Crane | Director | Exer (M) | +15,757 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | Nancy Killefer | Director | Exer (M) | +15,757 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | James E Cashman III | Director | Exer (M) | +15,757 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | Arjun Bedi | Director | Exer (M) | +5,547 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | Eran Broshy | Director | Exer (M) | +15,757 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | John V W Reynders | Chief Financial Officer | Exer (M) | +15,757 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | Cynthia Collins | Director | Exer (M) | +15,757 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | John E Gallagher | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +324,073 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | Daniel Corcoran | SVP and General Counsel | Mixed | +185,185 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | Jon Matthew Resnick | Chief Executive Officer | Mixed Tax −24,377 · Exer +59,766 |
+35,389 | $6.31 | -$153.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-13 | Rona Anhalt | Chief Human Resources Officer | Mixed | +154,320 RSU | — | EDGAR |
CERT Insider Holdings
16 insiders · @ $12.48| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William F Feehery | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | 2,360,769 | $29.45M | -$31.58M | 24 | 2025-11-12 |
| 2 | James E Cashman III | Director | 484,197 | $6.04M | -$850.0K | 10 | 2026-05-15 |
| 3 | Robert Aspbury | PRESIDENT, PREDICTIVE TECH | 324,393 | $4.05M | -$3.76M | 19 | 2026-05-13 |
| 4 | Matthew M Walsh | Director | 213,316 | $2.66M | -$62.7K | 9 | 2026-05-15 |
| 5 | Leif E Pedersen | PRESIDENT, CHIEF COMMERCAL OFF | 113,744 | $1.42M | -$4.45M | 14 | 2026-05-13 |
| 6 | John E Gallagher | Chief Financial Officer | 74,732 | $932.4K | $0 | 6 | 2026-05-13 |
| 7 | Jon Matthew Resnick | Chief Executive Officer | 59,766 | $745.6K | $0 | 1 | 2026-05-13 |
| 8 | Cynthia Collins | Director | 51,846 | $646.8K | $0 | 7 | 2026-05-15 |
| 9 | Nancy Killefer | Director | 51,846 | $646.8K | $0 | 7 | 2026-05-15 |
| 10 | Eran Broshy | Director | 50,708 | $632.6K | $79.1K | 6 | 2026-05-15 |
CERT Board & Officers
As of SEC filings through Sep 2, 2026Directors 7
- James E Cashman III · since Dec 11, 2020
- Matthew M Walsh · since Dec 11, 2020
- Nancy Killefer · since Aug 1, 2021
- Eran Broshy · since Jul 11, 2022
- John V W Reynders · since Oct 16, 2024
- Jon Matthew Resnick · since Jan 1, 2026
- Arjun Bedi · since Feb 24, 2026
Officers 7
- Jon Matthew Resnick · Chief Executive Officer · since Jan 1, 2026
- Leif E Pedersen · President, Chief Commercal Off · listed since Sep 2023
- Adrian McKemey · President, Drug Dev. Solutions · since Mar 3, 2025
- Robert Aspbury · President, Predictive Tech · listed since Apr 2025
- Faiz Mohammed · Interim CFO · since Jul 15, 2026
- Rona Anhalt · Chief Human Resources Officer · since May 23, 2024
- Daniel Corcoran · SVP and General Counsel · since May 20, 2024
Changes in the last 10 years (70)
| Jul 15, 2026 | Faiz Mohammed became Interim CFO |
| May 15, 2026 | Rosemary A Crane reported in an SEC filing no longer being a director |
| May 15, 2026 | John V W Reynders first listed as Chief Financial Officer in an SEC filing |
| May 15, 2026 | Cynthia Collins reported in an SEC filing no longer being a director |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Arjun Bedi became a director |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Jon Matthew Resnick became a director |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Jon Matthew Resnick became Chief Executive Officer |
| Dec 11, 2025 | The company announced the departure of William F Feehery from the board in an SEC filing |
| Dec 11, 2025 | The company announced the departure of William F Feehery as Chief Executive Officer in an SEC filing |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Robert Aspbury listed as President, Predictive Tech (previously President; Scientific Software) in SEC filings |
| Mar 5, 2025 | The company announced the departure of Patrick F Smith as President, Drug Dev Solutions in an SEC filing |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Adrian McKemey became President, Drug Dev. Solutions |
| Oct 16, 2024 | John V W Reynders became a director |
| May 23, 2024 | Rona Anhalt became Chief Human Resources Officer |
| May 20, 2024 | Daniel Corcoran became SVP and General Counsel |
| Mar 6, 2024 | Robert Aspbury listed as President; Scientific Software (previously President, Simcyp) in SEC filings |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Patrick F Smith listed as President, Drug Dev Solutions (previously President, Integrated Drug Dev) in SEC filings |
| Sep 12, 2023 | Leif E Pedersen listed as President, Chief Commercal Off (previously President, Software) in SEC filings |
| Apr 3, 2023 | Michael Andrew Schemick reported in an SEC filing no longer being Chief Financial Officer |
| Apr 1, 2023 | John E Gallagher became Chief Financial Officer |
| Dec 23, 2022 | The company announced the departure of Mason P Slaine from the board in an SEC filing |
| Dec 12, 2022 | EQT Fund Management S.a r.l. reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Dec 12, 2022 | EQT Avatar Parent L.P. reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Dec 12, 2022 | EQT Avatar Parent GP LLC reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Dec 8, 2022 | The company announced the departure of Stephen M. McLean from the board in an SEC filing |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Terrence M. Mullen became a 10% owner |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Jeffrey B. Kovach became a 10% owner |
| Dec 8, 2022 | David Spaight became a director |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Arsenal Saturn Holdings LP became a 10% owner |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Arsenal Capital Partners Iii-B LP became a 10% owner |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Arsenal Capital Partners III LP became a 10% owner |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Arsenal Capital Investment Vi LP became a 10% owner |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Arsenal Capital Investment III LP became a 10% owner |
| Sep 2, 2022 | Drayton Virkler became Interim President, Reg & Acces |
| Jul 21, 2022 | Rosemary A Crane became a director |
| Jul 11, 2022 | Eran Broshy became a director |
| Jun 1, 2022 | EQT Fund Management S.a r.l. first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Jun 1, 2022 | EQT Avatar Parent L.P. first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Jun 1, 2022 | EQT Avatar Parent GP LLC first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Apr 5, 2022 | The company announced the departure of Carol Giltner Gallagher from the board in an SEC filing |
| Nov 1, 2021 | Patrick F Smith became President, Integrated Drug Dev |
| Aug 23, 2021 | Jieun W. Choe listed as Chief Strategy & Marketing (previously Title: Chief Strategy and Marketing Officer) in SEC filings |
| Aug 1, 2021 | Nancy Killefer became a director |
| Aug 1, 2021 | Cynthia Collins became a director |
| Jun 17, 2021 | Justin Edge listed as Pres., Regulatory & Access (previously Title: President, Regulatory and Access) in SEC filings |
| Jun 15, 2021 | Craig R. Rayner listed as President, Integrated Drug Dev (previously Title: President, Integrated Drug Development) in SEC filings |
| Jun 15, 2021 | Carol Giltner Gallagher became a director |
| Dec 16, 2020 | EQT Fund Management S.a r.l. reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Dec 16, 2020 | EQT Avatar Parent L.P. reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Dec 16, 2020 | EQT Avatar Parent GP LLC reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Dec 11, 2020 | William F Feehery became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | William F Feehery became Chief Executive Officer |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Stephen M. McLean became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Sherilyn S McCoy became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Robert Aspbury became President, Simcyp |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Richard M. Traynor became SVP and General Counsel |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Michael Andrew Schemick became Chief Financial Officer |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Matthew M Walsh became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Mason P Slaine became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Leif E Pedersen became President, Software |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Justin Edge became Title: President, Regulatory and Access |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Judith Dickinson became Title: Chief Human Resources Officer and Senior Vice President, Human Resources |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Jieun W. Choe became Title: Chief Strategy and Marketing Officer |
| Dec 11, 2020 | James E Cashman III became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Ethan Waxman became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Eric C. Liu became a director |
| Dec 11, 2020 | EQT Fund Management S.a r.l. became a 10% owner |
| Dec 11, 2020 | EQT Avatar Parent L.P. became a 10% owner |
| Dec 11, 2020 | EQT Avatar Parent GP LLC became a 10% owner |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Craig R. Rayner became Title: President, Integrated Drug Development |
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Not reported recently (19)
- John E Gallagher · Last reported as Chief Financial Officer in an SEC filing dated May 13, 2026
- David Spaight · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Apr 10, 2024
- Richard M. Traynor · Last reported as SVP and General Counsel in an SEC filing dated Apr 3, 2024
- Nicolette D Sherman · Last reported as Chief Human Resources Officer in an SEC filing dated Apr 3, 2024
- Drayton Virkler · Last reported as Interim President, Reg & Acces in an SEC filing dated Apr 3, 2023
- Arsenal Capital Partners Iii-B LP · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Dec 16, 2022
- Arsenal Capital Partners III LP · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Dec 16, 2022
- Jeffrey B. Kovach · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Dec 16, 2022
- Arsenal Saturn Holdings LP · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Dec 16, 2022
- Arsenal Capital Investment III LP · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Dec 16, 2022
- Terrence M. Mullen · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Dec 16, 2022
- Arsenal Capital Investment Vi LP · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Dec 16, 2022
- Eric C. Liu · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Apr 7, 2022
- Jieun W. Choe · Last reported as Chief Strategy & Marketing in an SEC filing dated Apr 5, 2022
- Justin Edge · Last reported as Pres., Regulatory & Access in an SEC filing dated Apr 5, 2022
- Craig R. Rayner · Last reported as President, Integrated Drug Dev in an SEC filing dated Sep 7, 2021
- Sherilyn S McCoy · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated May 18, 2021
- Judith Dickinson · Last reported as Title: Chief Human Resources Officer and Senior Vice President, Human Resources in an SEC filing dated Apr 9, 2021
- Ethan Waxman · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Dec 11, 2020
CERT Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-09-03What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Pedersen Leif E | Officer | 36,066 | $300.1K | 2026-09-03 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-09 | Pedersen Leif E | Officer | 51,224 | $559.3K | 2025-09-09 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2025-04-02 | SMITH PATRICK F | Officer | 20,142 | $196.0K | 2025-04-02 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2024-10-07 | SMITH PATRICK F | Officer | 5,409 | $59.7K | 2024-10-07 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2024-09-09 | Pedersen Leif E | Officer | 51,224 | $578.5K | 2024-09-09 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2024-04-02 | SMITH PATRICK F | Officer | 14,427 | $254.2K | 2024-04-02 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2024-04-01 | Traynor Richard M. | Officer | 3,000 | $54.0K | 2024-04-01 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2024-03-04 | Traynor Richard M. | Officer | 3,000 | $54.8K | 2024-03-04 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2024-02-20 | SMITH PATRICK F | Officer | 5,000 | $90.0K | 2024-02-20 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2024-02-12 | Traynor Richard M. | Officer | 6,000 | $108.0K | 2024-02-12 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Event | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | Earnings results | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-07 | Regulation FD disclosure | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-04 | Earnings results | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-04 | Director or officer change | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-17 | Director or officer change | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-15 | Shareholder vote results | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-11 | Earnings results · Other events | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-22 | Material agreement | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-31 | Director or officer change | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-26 | Earnings results | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 0001827090-26-000035 | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-04 | 0001827090-26-000028 | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-11 | 0001827090-26-000019 | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-06 | 0001827090-25-000048 | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-06 | 0001827090-25-000036 | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-05 | 0001827090-25-000028 | EDGAR |
| 2024-11-06 | 0001827090-24-000037 | EDGAR |
| 2024-08-06 | 0001827090-24-000029 | EDGAR |
| 2024-05-07 | 0001827090-24-000013 | EDGAR |
| 2023-11-08 | 0001827090-23-000021 | EDGAR |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.08% | $82.3M | $103.8B | 2026-11-06 |
| 2 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.05% | $36.9M | $76.6B | 2026-11-06 |
| 3 | DFSV Dimensional US Small Cap Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.13% | $35.7M | — | 2026-11-05 |
| 4 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.00% | $28.5M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 5 | DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.08% | $24.8M | — | 2026-11-05 |
| 6 | VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $22.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 7 | VBR Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.02% | $14.4M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 8 | IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.10% | $13.6M | $13.9B | 2026-11-06 |
| 9 | SPSM State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 600™ Small Cap ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.08% | $12.5M | $15.7B | 2026-11-05 |
| 10 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $11.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 11 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $6.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 12 | IJT iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.09% | $6.3M | $7.3B | 2026-11-06 |
| 13 | IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.07% | $5.5M | $7.5B | 2026-11-06 |
| 14 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.02% | $4.6M | — | 2026-08-31 |
| 15 | DFMC Dimensional US Micro Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.06% | $4.3M | — | 2026-11-05 |
| 16 | DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.01% | $4.3M | — | 2026-11-05 |
| 17 | SLYG State Street® SPDR® S&P 600™ Small Cap Growth ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.09% | $4.0M | $4.6B | 2026-11-05 |
| 18 | VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | Vanguard | 0.06% | $3.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 19 | SLYV State Street® SPDR® S&P 600™ Small Cap Value ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.07% | $3.6M | $4.9B | 2026-11-05 |
| 20 | VHT Vanguard Health Care ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $3.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 21 | IHF iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.17% | $2.6M | $1.5B | 2026-11-06 |
| 22 | ESML iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.08% | $2.1M | $2.7B | 2026-11-06 |
| 23 | SFLO VictoryShares Small Cap Free Cash Flow ETF | Nport | 0.31% | $1.9M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 24 | ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.00% | $1.8M | $93.2B | 2026-11-06 |
| 25 | PRFZ Invesco RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid ETF | Nport | 0.06% | $1.7M | — | 2026-07-31 |
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '26 | 2026-09-30 | $94.90M | $5.59M | $0.04 | $30.68M |
| Q2 '26 | 2026-06-30 | $93.27M | $-55.27M | $-0.36 | $10.04M |
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $106.92M | $-8.76M | $-0.06 | $11.69M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $103.65M | $-5.89M | $-0.04 | $28.82M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $90.89M | $1.52M | $0.01 | $32.31M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $92.36M | $-1.97M | $-0.01 | $17.84M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $106.00M | $4.74M | $0.03 | $17.35M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $100.36M | $6.58M | $0.04 | $49.37M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $94.82M | $-1.37M | $-0.01 | $16.99M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $93.31M | $-12.57M | $-0.08 | $12.69M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $96.65M | $-4.68M | $-0.03 | $1.42M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $88.01M | $-12.46M | $-0.08 | $-792.00K |
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
CERT vs Peers
Related companies, largest first| Company | Market cap | P/E | Revenue growth | YTD | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. | $257.4B | 37.7 | +8.3% | +20.6% | 46 |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | $138.7B | 35.4 | +10.5% | +21.6% | 63 |
| MRNA Moderna, Inc. Common Stock | $101.5B | — | −27.6% | +804.8% | 51 |
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. | $49.2B | 50.2 | +16.5% | +39.7% | 81 |
| ILMN Illumina Inc | $32.2B | 38.0 | +5.8% | +64.5% | 56 |
| GH Guardant Health, Inc. Common Stock | $20.4B | — | +42.7% | +56.9% | 25 |
| TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Class A Common Stock | $13.9B | — | +36.6% | +35.3% | 72 |
| WAY Waystar Holding Corp. Common Stock | $5.5B | 42.1 | +21.4% | −7.5% | 2 |
| CERT Certara, Inc. Common Stock | $1.8B | — | +2.3% | +42.7% | 16 |
| Peer median | $40.7B | 38.0 | +13.5% | +37.5% | 53 |
P/E uses the latest reported trailing-12-month diluted EPS; "—" means no positive earnings or no data.
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.