Polls
The 2026 midterms from two angles: what prediction markets say about control of Congress and each race, and what the polls say — side by side.
Chance of Democratic control over time
Kalshi, daily| Democrats win | Now | 1 month ago | 3 months ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | 100% | 92% | 83% |
| Senate | 100% | 63% | 47% |
Market-implied probability that Democrats win each chamber. Moves track polls, retirements, candidate news and the national mood.
Balance of power
after the midtermsProbability of each House/Senate combination.
Republican Senate seats
PolymarketMarket probability of each Republican seat count after the election (51 = majority; 50 relies on the vice president).
Republican House seats
PolymarketMarket probability of each range of Republican seats (218 = majority).
Senate races
Market odds for every contested seat, next to the polling average.
Market odds by state
2 racesChance each party wins, from the Kalshi race market. Paler bars are within 10 points of a toss-up. Hover for candidates, 24-hour moves and the polling average.
Polls vs markets
Races where the polling leader is not the market favorite:
| Race | Polls | Market |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | R+4.0 | D 97% |
Each race placed by its polling margin (last 60 days) and the market’s chance for the Democrat. Races far from the curve are where traders disagree with the polls — or know something about turnout and candidates that polls miss.
Senate race board
| Race | Candidates | Market odds | Favored | 24h | Polls | # polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Democratic party vs Republican party | D 92% | +21.8 | — | 6 | |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith | D 97% | +79.2 | R+4.0 | 1 |
Governor races
Market odds by state
1 racesChance each party wins the governorship.
Closest governor races
| Race | Candidates | Favored | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher vs Ty Masterson | D 99% | R+2.0 |
The national picture
Presidential approval
Donald Trump| Average of the major poll aggregators | Approve | Disapprove |
|---|---|---|
| Latest (Nov 4) | 36.8% | 60.5% |
| 1 month ago (Oct 5) | 36.7% | 61.0% |
| 6 months ago (May 6) | 38.4% | 58.2% |
| 1 year ago (Nov 4) | 42.1% | 55.1% |
Past 12 months.
Generic congressional ballot
| Average of the major poll aggregators | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Latest (Nov 4) | 52.0% | 43.4% |
| 1 month ago (Oct 5) | 50.8% | 42.6% |
| 6 months ago (May 6) | 47.6% | 42.0% |
| 1 year ago (Nov 4) | 45.4% | 42.3% |
Which party voters say they will back for Congress — the best single read on the midterm environment. Past 12 months.
Explore the polls
Chart any subject's trend, then browse every recent poll by race.
Trend explorer
Approval · 596 pollsThe low polled adults and the high polled registered voters, so part of the gap may be who was asked.
Latest: Approve 36.8%, Disapprove 60.5% (Nov 4). Line: daily average of the major poll aggregators (continuous even when individual national polls thin out). Dots: individual polls.
Browse polls
145 races · 701 polls2026 Generic ballot
12 polls · latest Nov 2- +8.0
- +8.0
- +9.0
- +2.0
- +10
- +11
- +4.0
- +6.0
- +6.0
- +6.0
- +6.0
- +5.0
Donald Trump Approval
56 polls · latest Nov 2- +27
- +12
- +26
- +18
- +10
- +22
- +20
- +12
- +25
- +20
- +17
- +34
- +20
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- +23
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- +25
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- +35
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- +33
- +28
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- +13
- +26
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- +25
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- +34
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- +20
- +34
- +15
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- +26
- +32
- +17
- +21
- +13
- +14
Georgia Senate
9 polls · latest Nov 2- +7.0
- +15
- +8.0
- +6.9
- +8.0
- +10
- +11
- +8.0
- +7.5
Georgia Governor
10 polls · latest Nov 2- Tie
- +1.0
- +3.0
- +1.6
- +1.0
- +2.0
- +2.0
- +1.0
- +2.0
- Tie
Minnesota Senate
8 polls · latest Nov 1- +2.0
- +3.0
- +3.0
- GQRDEM+8.0
- +2.0
- Tie
- +3.8
- +5.0
North Carolina Senate
19 polls · latest Nov 1- +15
- +9.0
- +8.6
- +14
- +10
- +14
- +14
- +13
- +10
- +7.0
- +12
- +5.9
- +8.0
- +15
- +8.0
- +11
- +5.0
- +7.0
- +13
Ohio Governor
20 polls · latest Nov 1- +6.0
- +6.0
- +6.0
- +10
- +2.0
- +0.8
- +2.0
- +2.8
- +7.0
- +5.0
- +6.0
- co/efficientREP+2.0
- +8.0
- +4.0
- +6.0
- +9.0
- +1.1
- +12
- +1.0
- +2.0
Ohio Senate
22 polls · latest Nov 1- +5.0
- +4.0
- +4.0
- Tie
- +3.0
- +3.9
- +5.0
- +4.0
- +6.0
- +6.0
- co/efficientREP+1.0
- co/efficientREP+1.0
- +6.0
- +1.0
- +8.0
- +3.7
- +0.5
- +3.0
- +5.4
- +10
- +4.0
- +8.0
Iowa Governor
20 polls · latest Nov 1- +8.0
- +7.0
- co/efficientREP+5.0
- +4.0
- co/efficientREP+4.0
- +11
- +5.0
- +6.0
- +7.0
- +3.7
- +9.0
- +11
- +9.0
- +12
- co/efficientREP+4.0
- +10
- +11
- +3.0
- +5.0
- +4.2
Iowa Senate
19 polls · latest Nov 1- +1.0
- +2.0
- co/efficientREP+2.0
- +2.0
- +2.0
- co/efficientREP+3.0
- +2.0
- +3.0
- +1.0
- +3.0
- +1.6
- +2.0
- +2.0
- +8.0
- co/efficientREP+4.0
- +4.0
- +1.0
- +5.0
- +4.6
Kansas Senate
8 polls · latest Nov 1- +5.0
- +7.0
- +2.4
- +9.0
- +4.0
- +1.0
- +2.0
- +2.0
Maine Senate
19 polls · latest Nov 1- +6.0
- +4.0
- +9.0
- +4.0
- +2.0
- +7.0
- Tie
- +2.0
- +5.0
- +4.0
- +4.0
- +2.0
- +3.0
- +3.0
- +4.0
- +0.7
- +5.0
- +4.0
- +2.0
| Subject | Pollster | Result | Sample | Population | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading polls… | |||||
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