How to read today’s mortgage rates
Most published mortgage rates are either advertised rates or a survey of what lenders say they charge. This page leads with what borrowers actually locked, because that moves with what lenders are really charging that day, and adds a live estimate so the number is current between prints.
Where the rates come from
The daily rates are the average rates borrowers actually locked each day, by loan type — conforming 30- and 15-year fixed, jumbo, FHA, VA and USDA — and they are published the next morning. Because they are real locks rather than advertised rates, they move with what lenders are charging that day. The weekly survey rate is the national average lenders report each Thursday; it often runs a little lower because it describes a strong borrower who pays some points.
The live estimate
Between daily prints, the live estimate starts from the latest one and moves it by how far the 10-year Treasury yield has moved since that day’s close, at the rate mortgage rates have followed the 10-year over the past three years, which is less than one-for-one on the day because lenders reprice with a lag (the pass-through line above shows the current figures). The plus-or-minus figure is how far that estimate typically misses the next print. It cannot see a change in the mortgage spread itself until the next print shows it.
Credit score and down payment
The credit-score grid shows the 30-year fixed rate borrowers locked on the latest day, by credit score band and by whether they put at least 20% down. Each cell shows its gap to a borrower with a 740+ score and 20% or more down, and what that gap costs per month on the loan amount in the payment calculator. A smaller down payment does not always mean a higher rate, because those loans usually carry mortgage insurance, which is priced separately and is not in these rates.
Reading the spread
Mortgage rates are priced off mortgage-backed securities, so day to day they follow the 10-year Treasury yield. On top of it sits a spread that pays mortgage investors for the risk that borrowers refinance when rates fall, plus servicing and origination costs. The spread widens when rate volatility rises or bond buyers step back, and narrows when demand for mortgage bonds is strong. Before the 2022 rate shock it averaged about two percentage points; the analytics card shows where it sits today against its own history.
Mortgages and the bond market
Mortgage bonds compete with long-dated corporate bonds for the same investors — insurers, pension funds, bond funds. The hyperscaler bond tracker plots the mortgage spread against the AI build-out’s borrowing, so the crowding-out question can be judged directly.