Prediction markets
Live odds from Kalshi and Polymarket on the economy, politics, crypto and more — what traders are pricing, what moved, and where the big money is going.
Headline odds
The most-traded question in each area and where the market stands now.
Where the money is
24h volume24-hour trading volume by category and venue. Kalshi volume counts $1 contracts. Click a bar to open the category.
Biggest movers
all 24h swings →Largest 24-hour swings in the odds among liquid markets ($5K+ traded) — excluding sports, brand-new listings and contracts about to settle.
Most traded
24h, excl. sports| Event | Favorite / 50-50 line | Odds | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? K Politics & Elections · 4 outcomes |
Democrats sweep | 70% | $7.9M |
| Texas Senate winner? K Politics & Elections · 2 outcomes |
James Talarico | 72% | $5.4M |
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) P Politics & Elections · 128 outcomes |
None | 26% | $4.7M |
| Michigan Senate winner? K Politics & Elections · 2 outcomes |
Abdul El-Sayed | 76% | $4.5M |
| Who will control the House? K Politics & Elections · 2 outcomes |
Democratic Party | 93% | $4.3M |
| Will 1win launch a token by ___? P Crypto · 3 outcomes |
≈ October 31, 2026 | 100% | $3.7M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? P Politics & Elections · 9 outcomes |
Democratic Party | 94% | $2.3M |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms P Politics & Elections · 5 outcomes |
Democrats Sweep | 70% | $2.3M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 P Politics & Elections · 128 outcomes |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | $1.7M |
| Iowa Senate winner? K Politics & Elections · 2 outcomes |
Ashley Hinson | 52% | $1.6M |
| Who will control the Senate? K Politics & Elections · 2 outcomes |
Democratic Party | 72% | $1.5M |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee K Politics & Elections · 39 outcomes |
Gavin Newsom | 16% | $1.3M |
Settling this week
full calendar →- Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
· None 26% · $4.7M
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
· Democratic Party 94% · $2.3M
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
· Democrats Sweep 70% · $2.3M
- Texas Senate Election Winner
· James Talarico (D) 72% · $1.3M
- Michigan Senate Election Winner
· Abdul El-Sayed (D) 78% · $1.2M
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
· Democratic Party 72% · $751K
- Iowa Senate Election Winner
· Ashley Hinson (R) 55% · $579K
- Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
· 420-439 22% · $441K
- Bitcoin above ___ on November 2?
· ≈ 78,000 68% · $430K
- Elon Musk # tweets October 31 - November 2, 2026?
· 115-139 44% · $390K
Highest-volume events resolving in the next seven days (same-day contracts left out). ≈ marks a ladder event, where we show the line closest to 50/50. See everything settling today and this week, day by day → How last week's markets resolved →
Where the big money is going
Kalshi orders ≥ $1K · 24h| Market | Large orders | Biggest | YES vs NO money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas? Politics & Elections · Ken Paxton · now 30% |
154 | $185K | YES $708K · NO $271K |
$979K |
| Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas? Politics & Elections · James Talarico · now 72% |
75 | $268K | YES $835K · NO $48K |
$883K |
| Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa? Politics & Elections · Josh Turek · now 48% |
9 | $349K | YES $637K · NO $8K |
$646K |
| Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan? Politics & Elections · Abdul El-Sayed · now 76% |
94 | $147K | YES $398K · NO $228K |
$627K |
| Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan? Politics & Elections · Mike Rogers · now 24% |
122 | $82K | YES $375K · NO $232K |
$607K |
| Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027? Politics & Elections · Democrats sweep · now 70% |
40 | $175K | YES $499K · NO $7K |
$506K |
| Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027? Politics & Elections · R-House, D-Senate · now 0% |
17 | $100K | YES $6K · NO $394K |
$401K |
| Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas? Politics & Elections · Adam Hamilton · now 60% |
33 | $116K | YES $308K · NO $11K |
$319K |
| Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine? Politics & Elections · Susan Collins · now 28% |
21 | $121K | YES $32K · NO $286K |
$317K |
| Will Democrats win the House in 2026? Politics & Elections · Democratic Party · now 93% |
48 | $35K | YES $257K · NO $15K |
$272K |
Kalshi splits a big order into many small fills; we stitch them back together. The tape is anonymous, so this shows the size and direction of the money, not who placed it. Only questions still open for at least a day — sports, parlays and same-day contracts are left out.
Browse every event
Search all 5,501 live events, or narrow by category.
Categories
Prediction market news
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- Bloomberg Politics14h ago
- Bloomberg Politics1d ago
- WSJ Markets1d ago
- Forbes Business1d ago
- CNBC Top News2d ago
- WSJ Markets2d ago
- Bloomberg Markets2d ago
How to read prediction markets
Price = probability. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens. A price of 62¢ means traders collectively put the chance at about 62%.
Two venues. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange; Polymarket is a crypto-settled global market. They list many of the same questions, and prices usually agree within a few points.
Volume matters. Thinly traded markets can sit at stale prices. The movers and headline cards only count markets with real 24-hour volume.
Movers are live questions. A market that has effectively resolved (the result is public, the contract just hasn't closed) jumps to near 0 or 100 and is left out of the movers list. Moves are ranked by size weighted by how much doubt remains, so a 30→60 swing outranks a 90→99 one.
Favorites vs. ladders. For one-winner events (a Fed decision, an election) we show the favorite. For ladder events ("CPI above 3.5%?", "Bitcoin above $90K?") the top rung is always near 100%, so we show the line closest to 50/50 — roughly where the market's median sits.
Big orders. Kalshi's public tape is anonymous. Large orders show where size is flowing, not who is trading.
Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice.