Economics Prediction Markets

Macro-event prediction markets: Fed meetings, CPI, jobless claims, GDP, and yield-curve resolutions, with FedWatch and options-implied comparisons.

50 active markets · $806.9K 24h volume · Updated

Top markets — Economics

MarketSourceYES 24h volCloses
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? kalshi 2% 221.6K Sep 16, 2026
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? kalshi 58% 54.2K Sep 16, 2026
Fed rate hike in 2026? polymarket 68% $49.5K Dec 09, 2026
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? kalshi 2% 46.8K Sep 16, 2026
Will there be a recession in 2026? kalshi 8% 46.5K Jan 31, 2027
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? kalshi 42% 36.0K Sep 16, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.120? kalshi 2% 35.7K Aug 03, 2026
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in July? kalshi 10% 30.7K Aug 07, 2026
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? kalshi 87% 24.4K Jan 01, 2027
Will average gas prices be above $4.100? kalshi 18% 15.8K Aug 03, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.140? kalshi 0% 14.6K Aug 03, 2026
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? kalshi 0% 14.3K Sep 16, 2026
Will the Fed cut rates 1 times? kalshi 10% 14.2K Jan 01, 2027
Will average gas prices be above $4.110? kalshi 6% 13.6K Aug 03, 2026
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? polymarket 69% $11.4K Oct 28, 2026
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? polymarket 22% $10.8K Oct 28, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.080? kalshi 98% 8.7K Aug 03, 2026
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? kalshi 2% 8.7K Sep 16, 2026
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? polymarket 6% $7.8K Oct 27, 2026
When will OpenAI IPO? kalshi 0% 7.7K Sep 01, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.100? kalshi 51% 6.8K Aug 02, 2026
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? polymarket 62% $6.7K Sep 16, 2026
Will the Fed cut rates 2 times? kalshi 2% 6.3K Jan 01, 2027
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? kalshi 60% 6.0K Sep 16, 2026
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? polymarket 16% $6.0K Aug 31, 2026
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? kalshi 68% 5.9K Jan 01, 2027
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027? kalshi 10% 5.8K Jan 01, 2027
GDP growth in 2031? kalshi 8% 5.0K Feb 29, 2032
Will the Fed cut rates 3 times? kalshi 1% 5.0K Jan 01, 2027
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? polymarket 23% $4.8K Jan 20, 2027
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? polymarket 6% $4.8K Jul 26, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.110? kalshi 2% 4.7K Aug 02, 2026
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30? polymarket 26% $4.5K Sep 30, 2026
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? polymarket 74% $4.2K Aug 31, 2026
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July? polymarket 6% $4.0K Aug 12, 2026
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? polymarket 42% $4.0K Aug 12, 2026
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July? polymarket 22% $3.9K Aug 12, 2026
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? polymarket 2% $3.9K Jul 31, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.090? kalshi 78% 3.9K Aug 03, 2026
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? polymarket 69% $3.9K Jan 19, 2027
Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.8%? kalshi 30% 3.8K Aug 13, 2026
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026? kalshi 58% 3.7K Aug 12, 2026
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? polymarket 72% $3.6K Sep 01, 2026
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027? kalshi 16% 3.6K Jan 01, 2027
Will core CPI inflation exceed headline CPI inflation in July 2026? kalshi 0% 3.5K Aug 12, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.085? kalshi 99% 3.3K Aug 02, 2026
Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July? polymarket 4% $3.3K Aug 12, 2026
CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026? kalshi 8% 3.2K Aug 12, 2026
GDP growth in 2036? kalshi 4% 3.1K Dec 31, 2037
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in July? kalshi 68% 3.1K Aug 12, 2026

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