Economy & Fed prediction markets
Fed decisions, inflation, jobs, GDP and recession odds — how traders price the macro calendar.
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Live events
290
24h volume
$2.4M
Biggest 24h move+28 pts
66%
Largest order flow (3d)$117K
0% YES
5 outcomes · $905K 24hP
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase70%
5 outcomes · $185K 24hK
Fed decision in Dec 2026?
Hike 25bps70%
5 outcomes · $90K 24hP
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
No Change60%
Most traded events
24h volumeBlue: Kalshi (volume in $1 contracts). Purple: Polymarket. Click a bar to open the event.
Biggest movers
all 24h swings →Markets with $2K+ traded, excluding new listings and contracts about to settle.
All economy & fed events
top 60 by volume| Event | Favorite / 50-50 line | Odds | 24h move | 24h vol | Settles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? P 5 outcomes |
25 bps increase | 70% | +4 | $905K | 2026-12-10 |
| US gas prices this week K 16 outcomes |
≈ Above 4.1700 | 52% | — | $213K | 2026-11-02 |
| Fed decision in Dec 2026? K 5 outcomes |
Hike 25bps | 70% | +5 | $185K | 2026-12-09 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? P 11 outcomes |
≈ December 31 | 8% | -1 | $166K | 2027-01-01 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in December? P 5 outcomes |
No Change | 60% | -9 | $90K | 2026-12-09 |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? P 6 outcomes |
2 (50 bps) | 71% | +1 | $46K | 2027-01-01 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? P 13 outcomes |
0 (0 bps) | 97% | — | $45K | 2027-01-01 |
| Paper price index in November 2026 K 5 outcomes |
≈ Above 280 | 88% | +6 | $41K | 2026-12-15 |
| Fed Decision in January? P 5 outcomes |
No change | 72% | +1 | $39K | 2027-01-28 |
| Diesel price on Election Day K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above $6.20 | 81% | +3 | $34K | 2026-11-03 |
| Texas crude oil production in 2026 K 4 outcomes |
≈ Above 5.8 million barrels/day | 8% | -13 | $34K | 2027-03-31 |
| Average Wall Street bonus in 2026 K 4 outcomes |
≈ Above $275,000 | 52% | -17 | $31K | 2027-03-31 |
| Port of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026 K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 8.9 million TEUs | 36% | +23 | $23K | 2027-02-28 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 71% | -2 | $19K | 2026-12-10 |
| Recession this year? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 2% | — | $18K | 2027-01-31 |
| Fed Decision in March? P 5 outcomes |
No change | 46% | +1 | $17K | 2027-03-18 |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) P 5 outcomes |
Pause-Hike-Pause | 65% | +5 | $14K | 2027-01-27 |
| New River Gorge recreation visits in 2026 K 4 outcomes |
Above 2.0 million | 75% | -11 | $13K | 2027-03-31 |
| 30-year mortgage rate this week K 15 outcomes |
≈ Above 7.16% | 40% | -17 | $12K | 2026-11-05 |
| Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026? K 4 outcomes |
Maintains rate | 62% | -9 | $12K | 2026-12-09 |
| How many PJM capacity emergency days will there be in 2026? K 4 outcomes |
≈ Above 15 days | 56% | -24 | $12K | 2027-01-01 |
| CPI YoY in November K 13 outcomes |
≈ Above 3.9% | 41% | +4 | $11K | 2026-12-10 |
| Jobs numbers in October 2026? K 11 outcomes |
≈ Above 60,000 | 54% | +8 | $11K | 2026-11-06 |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026 P 9 outcomes |
1.0-2.0% | 66% | +28 | $10K | 2027-02-01 |
| New Hampshire maple syrup production in 2027 K 3 outcomes |
Above 140,000 gallons | 70% | +5 | $10K | 2027-06-30 |
| Bank of Mexico Decision in November? P 5 outcomes |
No change | 84% | +6 | $10K | 2026-11-05 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? P 7 outcomes |
≈ 4.90% | 49% | -18 | $10K | 2026-12-31 |
| US recession by end of 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 6% | — | $9K | 2026-12-31 |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) P 3 outcomes |
Hike–Pause–Hike | 72% | -2 | $9K | 2026-12-09 |
| How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? P 12 outcomes |
≈ Below 4.50% | 44% | +24 | $9K | 2026-12-31 |
| Fed rate cut by...? P 13 outcomes |
≈ March 2027 Meeting | 11% | -8 | $8K | 2028-01-29 |
| CPI in October K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 0.2% | 58% | -4 | $8K | 2026-11-10 |
| Nebraska corn yield in 2026 K 5 outcomes |
≈ Above 185 bu/acre | 52% | — | $8K | 2027-01-31 |
| Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? K 5 outcomes |
≈ Above 4.00% | 74% | -3 | $7K | 2026-12-09 |
| Number of rate hikes in 2026? K 4 outcomes |
Exactly 2 | 70% | +1 | $7K | 2027-01-03 |
| CPI YoY in December K 9 outcomes |
≈ Above 3.9% | 52% | -4 | $7K | 2027-01-13 |
| Will Alaska crude oil production increase YoY in 2026? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 93% | — | $7K | 2027-03-01 |
| Unemployment in October K 8 outcomes |
≈ Above 4.1% | 60% | -3 | $6K | 2026-11-06 |
| Diesel prices this week K 8 outcomes |
≈ Above $6.30 | 24% | — | $6K | 2026-11-02 |
| UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 4% | — | $6K | 2026-12-31 |
| Recession in 2027? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 18% | — | $6K | 2028-01-31 |
| Next Fed rate hike? K 2 outcomes |
≈ Before 2027 | 74% | +3 | $6K | 2027-01-01 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? P 14 outcomes |
≈ Below 4.7% | 58% | +2 | $5K | 2027-01-01 |
| Core CPI in October K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 0.2% | 44% | -9 | $5K | 2026-11-10 |
| CPI in November K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 0.2% | 54% | -4 | $4K | 2026-12-10 |
| Rhode Island average residential electricity price in 2026 K 2 outcomes |
≈ Above 29.5¢/kWh | 76% | -2 | $4K | 2027-02-28 |
| Will Pennsylvania natural-gas production rise YoY? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 82% | +30 | $4K | 2027-02-26 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 4% | — | $4K | 2027-01-01 |
| Bank of Mexico rate decision in November K 2 outcomes |
Maintain current rate | 82% | +7 | $4K | 2026-11-05 |
| Core CPI YoY in December K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 2.9% | 44% | -2 | $4K | 2027-01-13 |
| Chile rate decision in December K 4 outcomes |
Maintain current rate | 66% | +6 | $4K | 2026-12-15 |
| US gas prices on Election Day K 9 outcomes |
≈ Above 4.20 | 32% | +22 | $4K | 2026-11-03 |
| Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026 K 2 outcomes |
≈ Above 97.5 TWh | 78% | +12 | $4K | 2027-02-28 |
| How high will inflation get in 2026? P 8 outcomes |
≈ Above 4.5% | 14% | -2 | $4K | 2027-02-01 |
| October Inflation US - Annual P 12 outcomes |
3.7% | 91% | +2 | $4K | 2026-11-11 |
| Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31, 2026 K 6 outcomes |
≈ At least 195,000 | 58% | -2 | $4K | 2026-11-05 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in November? P 5 outcomes |
No Change | 78% | -2 | $3K | 2026-11-04 |
| How high will US gas prices get in 2026? K 8 outcomes |
Above $4.60 | 38% | +1 | $3K | 2026-12-31 |
| NYC median asking rent in December 2026 K 2 outcomes |
Above $3,900 | 88% | — | $3K | 2027-01-31 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November K 4 outcomes |
Hike 1-25bps | 92% | +3 | $3K | 2026-11-03 |
Settling in the next two weeks
- US gas prices this week· ≈ Above 4.1700 52%
- Diesel price on Election Day· ≈ Above $6.20 81%
- USD x Iranian rials End of October?· 2.7-2.8M 82%
- 30-year mortgage rate this week· ≈ Above 7.16% 40%
- Jobs numbers in October 2026?· ≈ Above 60,000 54%
- Bank of Mexico Decision in November?· No change 84%
- CPI in October· ≈ Above 0.2% 58%
- Unemployment in October· ≈ Above 4.1% 60%
Large orders (3 days)
Kalshi- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?
YES $0 · NO $117K · 13 orders
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
YES $0 · NO $104K · 2 orders
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?
YES $52K · NO $36K · 22 orders
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?
YES $21K · NO $61K · 23 orders
- Will average gas prices be above $4.1800?
YES $5K · NO $43K · 25 orders
- Will average gas prices be above $4.2000?
YES $0 · NO $48K · 18 orders
- Will average gas prices be above $4.1600?
YES $44K · NO $0 · 17 orders
- Will there be a recession in 2026?
YES $0 · NO $41K · 2 orders
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. How to read prediction markets.