How many PJM capacity emergency days will there be in 2026?
50/50 line56%Above 15 days
Line nearest 50/50
56%
Market median
15.579days
Biggest 24h move-24 pts
56%
24h volume
$12K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noWhat the market expects
median 15.579daysChance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 25 daysYES $0 · NO $3K · 1 orders · biggest $3K
- Above 20 daysYES $0 · NO $3K · 2 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25 days | NO | 93¢ | $3K | |
| Above 20 days | NO | 82¢ | $1K | |
| Above 20 days | NO | 82¢ | $1K |
All outcomes
4| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 days | 56% | -24.0 | $3K | $13K |
| Above 20 days | 8% | -12.0 | $5K | $15K |
| Above 25 days | 6% | — | $4K | $8K |
| Above 30 days | 4% | +3.0 | $1K | $3K |