Biggest prediction-market swings, last 24 hours

Kalshi and Polymarket questions whose odds moved the most since yesterday: where each stood a day ago, where it trades now, and how much changed hands.

updated
10+ point swings
23
of 131 markets on this list
Up / down
65 / 66
markets whose odds rose vs. fell
24h volume
$3.8M
traded in the markets on this list

Biggest movers

top 100 of 131 · 24h
Market24h ago → nowMove24h volSettles
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
P Markets & Companies
3% → 75%
+72 $7K Apr 01, 2027
Paris curfew by October 21?
P Politics & Elections · +3 more outcomes moved
6% → 61%
+55 $60K Nov 01, 2026
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? 60-80M
P Culture & Media · +1 more outcome moved
78% → 46%
-32 $45K Oct 23, 2026
What will Donald Trump say during Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026? Iran / Iranian
K Culture & Media · +1 more outcome moved
64% → 38%
-26 $7K Nov 02, 2026
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
P Weather & Climate
41% → 66%
+25 $6K Nov 01, 2026
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
P Economy & Fed · +1 more outcome moved
82% → 63%
-18 $28K Oct 28, 2026
Will "Housewife" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100? Rank 1 to 2
K Culture & Media
28% → 44%
+16 $11K Oct 26, 2026
Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their October 2026 meeting? Maintains rate
K Economy & Fed · +1 more outcome moved
84% → 66%
-18 $27K Oct 28, 2026
Who will headline the Pro Football Championship Halftime Show? Miley Cyrus
K Culture & Media
43% → 27%
-16 $8K Feb 15, 2027
Will Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 280,500 jobs?
K Economy & Fed
56% → 70%
+14 $6K Apr 30, 2027
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
P Politics & Elections
84% → 71%
-14 $13K Oct 28, 2026
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?
P Markets & Companies · +3 more outcomes moved
46% → 34%
-12 $58K Nov 01, 2026
Wildwood Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 98
K Culture & Media
36% → 22%
-15 $7K Oct 26, 2026
Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
K Politics & Elections
50% → 40%
-10 $8K Oct 27, 2027
Will Solana dip to $100 in October?
P Crypto
72% → 62%
-10 $12K Nov 01, 2026
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?
P Tech & AI
9% → 21%
+12 $6K Nov 01, 2026
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October?
64% → 56%
-8 $6K Nov 01, 2026
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
P Politics & Elections
34% → 42%
+8 $11K Dec 31, 2026
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
P World
33% → 22%
-11 $41K Jan 01, 2027
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
91% → 80%
-11 $50K Nov 04, 2026
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?
K Economy & Fed
38% → 30%
-9 $7K Mar 31, 2027
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
P Markets & Companies · +3 more outcomes moved
56% → 64%
+8 $66K Jan 01, 2027
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
P Tech & AI · +1 more outcome moved
72% → 64%
-8 $9K Dec 31, 2026
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
P Politics & Elections · +2 more outcomes moved
60% → 52%
-7 $78K Jan 01, 2027
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
P Politics & Elections
53% → 47%
-7 $101K Oct 28, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
9% → 19%
+10 $18K Jan 01, 2027
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?
69% → 62%
-7 $24K Nov 01, 2026
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?
P Tech & AI
14% → 23%
+9 $10K Jan 01, 2027
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
P World
40% → 34%
-7 $31K Jan 01, 2027
Bitcoin price on Oct 23, 2026? $79,500 or above
74% → 84%
+10 $21K Oct 23, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
P Politics & Elections · +3 more outcomes moved
20% → 27%
+8 $49K Jan 01, 2027
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? December 31, 2026
P Markets & Companies · +1 more outcome moved
29% → 20%
-9 $29K Jan 01, 2028
Will Shen Bo-yang win the 2026 Taipei mayoral election?
K Politics & Elections
44% → 38%
-6 $26K Nov 28, 2027
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
P Politics & Elections
96% → 86%
-10 $166K Nov 04, 2026
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,900?
K Economy & Fed
78% → 88%
+10 $6K Jan 31, 2027
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
P Politics & Elections
25% → 31%
+6 $7K Oct 28, 2026
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
P Politics & Elections
58% → 54%
-5 $6K Oct 26, 2026
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
P Markets & Companies · +1 more outcome moved
21% → 11%
-10 $34K Nov 01, 2026
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
P Culture & Media
33% → 26%
-7 $5K Jan 01, 2027
Ethereum price at Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT? $2,490 or above
25% → 31%
+6 $9K Oct 23, 2026
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
66% → 72%
+6 $5K Jan 01, 2028
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? Above $87,500.00
33% → 38%
+5 $13K Nov 01, 2026
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
P Politics & Elections
32% → 26%
-6 $12K Jan 01, 2027
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
24% → 30%
+6 $13K Jan 01, 2027
Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026? Above 170
K Politics & Elections
76% → 82%
+7 $5K Oct 27, 2026
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
68% → 72%
+5 $36K Oct 26, 2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21?
P Crypto
82% → 90%
+8 $9K Oct 21, 2026
Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?
K Politics & Elections
36% → 40%
+4 $11K Jan 01, 2027
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026? Above 0.2%
K Economy & Fed
66% → 62%
-4 $7K Nov 10, 2026
Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 80
K Culture & Media · +1 more outcome moved
42% → 38%
-4 $11K Oct 26, 2026
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?
P World
66% → 62%
-4 $83K Nov 01, 2026
Will Republican win the House race for MT-1? Aaron Flint
K Politics & Elections
70% → 66%
-4 $15K Nov 03, 2027
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
P Politics & Elections
47% → 44%
-3 $43K Nov 08, 2028
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?
P Culture & Media
14% → 20%
+5 $7K Feb 01, 2027
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
P Politics & Elections · +3 more outcomes moved
57% → 60%
+4 $15K Oct 31, 2026
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?
P World
34% → 38%
+4 $38K Jan 01, 2027
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
32% → 28%
-4 $92K Jan 01, 2027
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
K Politics & Elections
46% → 48%
+3 $13K Feb 01, 2027
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 65
K Culture & Media
80% → 76%
-4 $11K Nov 23, 2026
Will Celsius Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 83 ?
K Markets & Companies
80% → 76%
-4 $7K Nov 03, 2026
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
20% → 24%
+4 $437K Oct 26, 2026
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?
80% → 76%
-4 $6K Jan 01, 2028
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? December 31
P World
38% → 40%
+3 $38K Jan 01, 2027
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
62% → 60%
-3 $17K Nov 29, 2026
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026? $115.01 or above
K Markets & Companies
39% → 36%
-3 $11K Dec 31, 2026
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Before Dec 1, 2026
K Markets & Companies
60% → 64%
+3 $5K Dec 01, 2026
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
30% → 26%
-4 $66K Oct 26, 2026
Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? 7,800 to 7,999.99
K Markets & Companies
16% → 20%
+4 $8K Dec 31, 2026
AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?
P Markets & Companies
16% → 20%
+4 $8K Jan 01, 2027
BNB price on Oct 23, 2026? $655 or above
K Crypto
62% → 66%
+3 $6K Oct 23, 2026
Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
28% → 32%
+3 $38K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-27? Eliott Rodriguez
K Politics & Elections
34% → 32%
-3 $7K Nov 03, 2027
Will Morgan Wallen perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
P Culture & Media
10% → 14%
+5 $14K Apr 01, 2027
Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
K Culture & Media
76% → 74%
-3 $14K Dec 31, 2027
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
P World
3% → 8%
+5 $13K Jan 01, 2027
Will Tatyana Ali and their partner be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Oct 21, 2026?
K Culture & Media · +3 more outcomes moved
4% → 10%
+5 $12K Oct 21, 2026
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
P Politics & Elections
4% → 10%
+5 $12K Jan 01, 2027
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Claude
K Tech & AI
46% → 48%
+2 $14K Dec 31, 2026
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
P Politics & Elections
34% → 36%
+3 $40K Jan 01, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?
P World
4% → 9%
+5 $7K Nov 01, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
P Politics & Elections
78% → 82%
+4 $142K Nov 04, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
P Crypto
20% → 24%
+3 $7K Jan 01, 2027
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
P Tech & AI
15% → 11%
-4 $6K Dec 31, 2026
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
20% → 16%
-4 $23K Jan 01, 2027
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? $2.0–$2.25T
P Markets & Companies
19% → 22%
+3 $15K Jan 01, 2028
Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election? Nithya Raman
K Politics & Elections
54% → 52%
-2 $26K Jun 02, 2027
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
K Politics & Elections
46% → 48%
+2 $8K May 30, 2028
Will average gas prices be above $4.2000?
K Economy & Fed
56% → 54%
-2 $7K Dec 31, 2026
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?
K Culture & Media
48% → 46%
-2 $15K Dec 31, 2027
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
P Tech & AI
36% → 33%
-2 $9K Jan 02, 2027
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 21?
P Crypto
87% → 92%
+5 $6K Oct 21, 2026
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 7 percentage points? Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
K Politics & Elections
14% → 10%
-4 $7K Nov 03, 2027
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
P Markets & Companies
14% → 10%
-4 $16K Jan 01, 2030
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson
K Politics & Elections
57% → 60%
+2 $6K Jul 07, 2027
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine? Troy Jackson
K Politics & Elections
58% → 60%
+2 $30K Nov 03, 2027
Will New Hampshire’s maple syrup production in 2027 be above 170,000 gallons?
K Economy & Fed
14% → 10%
-4 $7K Jun 30, 2027
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
P Politics & Elections
6% → 10%
+4 $60K Jan 01, 2027
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
4% → 8%
+4 $14K Dec 31, 2026
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Before Jan 1, 2027
K Politics & Elections
13% → 10%
-4 $12K Jan 01, 2027
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
P World
14% → 10%
-4 $8K Oct 25, 2026

Showing the top 100 of 131. Raise the minimum move or volume, or pick a category, to see the rest.

About this list

What counts as a swing. The change in a market's YES price since the same time yesterday, in percentage points. Only markets with real trading count: at least the volume you pick (default $5K) in the last 24 hours.

Live questions only. Markets that have effectively resolved (priced under 8% or over 92%), contracts settling within 36 hours and brand-new listings are left out, so a result being recorded or a first trade doesn't read as a change of mind. Sports are excluded unless you pick the Sports category.

Ranking. "Biggest swings" weighs the size of the move by how much doubt remains, so a 30% → 60% swing outranks a 90% → 99% one. Sort by "Most points" for the raw move.

One line per event. Outcomes in the same event usually move together (every rung of a "Bitcoin above $X" ladder, every candidate in a race), so each event shows its biggest mover and a count of the others. Tick "Show every outcome" to list them all.

All prediction markets → · Settling this week →