What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketCrypto

Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?

chance of YES78% -7.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

56–92%

30d -13 pts · 7d -2 pts

24h volume

$1.9K

USDC traded

Open interest

$47.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

November 30, 202622%$192

October 31, 20260%$90

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.