How this record works
Every trading day the Fair Value screener ranks each stock’s forward-return outlook and flags the strongest names on each side as Active. This page records those picks the moment the trading day closes, freezes them, and measures what happened next. It is a forward record: nothing is re-run or re-fitted after the fact, and a pick cannot be removed once published.
What counts as a pick
A pick is a stock the screener showed as Active in its default view: an S&P 500 member ranked in the strongest 5% on its side at a given horizon after the risk filters, with model conviction of at least 30% (below that the quote page reads “neutral”). A pick is judged at the horizon it was active for — a 21-day pick on its 21-day return, a 63-day pick on its 63-day return.
How returns are measured
Entry is the close of the publication day; exit is the close 21, 42 or 63 trading days later. Each return is compared with the S&P 500 (SPY) over the identical window. For a long pick, alpha is its return minus the index; for a short pick, it is the index minus the stock, so a positive number always means the call worked. The hit rate is the share of picks with positive alpha. The long−short spread is the equal-weight long return minus the equal-weight short return, on days that had both.
Why so few short picks
Short picks are only published when the broad market is trading below its 50-day trend, and the short-side filters remove high-quality, high-beta, lightly shorted and strong-momentum names. In a rising market most days have no short picks at all.
Model versions
The model behind the screener is retrained and occasionally redesigned. Results from an older version say little about the current one, so every figure is reported per version and the chart marks each change. The current version’s record starts the day it went live; until its first 21-day window closes it has no completed results, and this page says so rather than borrowing older numbers.
Costs and the backtest
All returns are gross — no commissions, spreads, slippage or borrow fees — so real results would be lower, especially for shorts and for daily rebalancing. The screener’s walk-forward backtest replays the model over history; this page counts only picks after they were published live, so it cannot benefit from hindsight. It is a much shorter record, which is why every number carries its sample size.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Fair Value track record show?
The forward record of the picks the screener actually published. Each day’s Active picks are recorded at the close, frozen, and measured over the next 21, 42 and 63 trading days against the S&P 500 over the same window.
How is a pick defined?
A stock the screener showed as Active in its default view: an S&P 500 member in the strongest 5% on its side at a horizon after the risk filters, with conviction of at least 30%. It is judged at the horizon it was active for.
Why are there so few short picks?
Shorts are only published when the market is below its 50-day trend, and the short-side filters remove quality, high-beta, lightly shorted and strong-momentum names. The long−short spread is computed only on days with both sides.
Why are results split by model version?
Results from an older model say little about the current one, so every figure is per version and the chart marks each change. The current version has no completed results until its first 21-day window closes.
Are these returns after trading costs?
No. They assume entry at the publication-day close and exit at the final close, with no commissions, spreads, slippage or borrow fees.
How is this different from the screener’s backtest?
A backtest replays a model over history; this page only counts picks after they were published live, so it cannot benefit from hindsight — at the cost of a much shorter record.