What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 33%, implying a 33% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Nathan Fielder

Settles Dec 31, 2027 (430d) All outcomes: Oscar Winner: Best Director

chance of YES33% +4.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

25–36%

24h volume

726

$1 contracts

Open interest

20.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.