P PolymarketCrypto

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

10 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2028 (426d)

50/50 line56%$1B

Line nearest 50/50

56%

$1B

Runner-up

94%

$300M

Biggest 24h move+8 pts

28%

$2B

24h volume

$25K

$11.6M open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

$100M 98%

$300M 94%

$200M 93%

$500M 88%

$800M 72% -1

$1B 56% +1

$2B 28% +8

$3B 13% +2

$4B 6% +2

$5B 4% +2

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

Outcome	Odds	24h change	24h volume	Open interest
$100M	98%	—	$412	$1.2M
$300M	94%	—	$100	$1.2M
$200M	93%	-0.5	$127	$1.2M
$500M	88%	+0.5	$0	$1.2M
$800M	72%	-1.0	$174	$1.2M
$1B	56%	+1.0	$6K	$1.2M
$2B	28%	+7.6	$11K	$1.2M
$3B	13%	+2.1	$3K	$1.2M
$4B	6%	+1.5	$1K	$1.2M
$5B	4%	+2.2	$3K	$1.2M

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.