Unemployment in October
50/50 line32%Above 4.2%
Line nearest 50/50
32%
Market median
4.153%
Biggest 24h move-3 pts
6%
24h volume
$5K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noWhat the market expects
median 4.153%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyAll outcomes
5| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.0% | 94% | +2.5 | $2K | $5K |
| Above 4.1% | 70% | +12.0 | $108 | $43K |
| Above 4.2% | 32% | +2.0 | $317 | $6K |
| Above 4.3% | 6% | -3.0 | $2K | $7K |
| Above 5.0% | 2% | — | $23 | $1K |
Same series
- Unemployment in NovemberYes 82% · settles 2026-12-04