Biggest prediction-market swings, last 24 hours

Kalshi and Polymarket questions whose odds moved the most since yesterday: where each stood a day ago, where it trades now, and how much changed hands.

updated 6:53 AM ET

10+ point swings

of 15 markets on this list

Biggest swing22% → 8%

-13pts

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

Up / down

7 / 8

markets whose odds rose vs. fell

24h volume

$549K

traded in the markets on this list

Movers

15 markets · 24h

Market	24h ago → now	Move	24h vol	Settles
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000? K Economy & Fed · +1 more outcome moved	62% → 50%	-11	$6K	Mar 31, 2027
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement? P Economy & Fed · +1 more outcome moved	30% → 39%	+9	$35K	Dec 09, 2026
Will New River Gorge National Park recreation visits in 2026 be above 2.1 million? K Economy & Fed	33% → 21%	-12	$10K	Mar 31, 2027
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day? K Economy & Fed	22% → 8%	-13	$7K	Mar 31, 2027
Will average gas prices be above $4.1800? K Economy & Fed	24% → 16%	-9	$63K	Nov 02, 2026
Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their December 2026 meeting? Maintains rate K Economy & Fed	67% → 62%	-5	$7K	Dec 09, 2026
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? P Economy & Fed	60% → 65%	+5	$5K	Jan 27, 2027
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? 25 bps decrease P Economy & Fed	11% → 16%	+6	$7K	Nov 05, 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? P Economy & Fed · +1 more outcome moved	24% → 28%	+4	$283K	Dec 10, 2026
Will New Hampshire’s maple syrup production in 2027 be above 170,000 gallons? K Economy & Fed	12% → 16%	+5	$8K	Jun 30, 2027
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? Fed maintains rate K Economy & Fed	26% → 30%	+3	$80K	Dec 09, 2026
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? P Economy & Fed	74% → 70%	-3	$19K	Dec 10, 2026
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? K Economy & Fed	76% → 74%	-3	$5K	Dec 09, 2026
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? Before 2027 K Economy & Fed	72% → 74%	+3	$5K	Jan 01, 2027
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? P Economy & Fed	74% → 72%	-2	$8K	Dec 09, 2026

About this list

What counts as a swing. The change in a market's YES price since the same time yesterday, in percentage points. Only markets with real trading count: at least the volume you pick (default $5K) in the last 24 hours. A market whose best bid and best ask are more than 10 points apart is left out too, because the price halfway between them is not one anyone traded at.

Live questions only. Markets that have effectively resolved (priced under 8% or over 92%), contracts settling within 36 hours and brand-new listings are left out, so a result being recorded or a first trade doesn't read as a change of mind. Sports are excluded unless you pick the Sports category.

Ranking. "Biggest swings" weighs the size of the move by how much doubt remains, so a 30% → 60% swing outranks a 90% → 99% one. Sort by "Most points" for the raw move.

One line per event. Outcomes in the same event usually move together (every rung of a "Bitcoin above $X" ladder, every candidate in a race), so each event shows its biggest mover and a count of the others. Tick "Show every outcome" to list them all.

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