What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 74%, implying a 74% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Next Fed rate hike? Fed Watch — futures-implied odds

chance of YES74%

Price range (120d)

71–92%

30d -12 pts · 7d -9 pts

24h volume

5.2K

$1 contracts

Open interest

80.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$11K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 3:45 PM ET	YES	71¢	1,712	$1K
Oct 29, 6:42 PM ET	YES	69¢	1,543	$1K
Oct 28, 7:55 AM ET	YES	83¢	1,618	$1K
Oct 24, 7:23 PM ET	YES	80¢	1,379	$1K
Oct 23, 11:45 PM ET	YES	81¢	4,413	$4K
Oct 22, 1:01 PM ET	YES	81¢	3,045	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.