What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 90%, implying a 90% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jul 01, 2027 (242d) All outcomes: Next Fed rate hike? Fed Watch — futures-implied odds

chance of YES90%

Price range (120d)

89–97%

30d +3 pts · 7d +0 pts

24h volume

194

$1 contracts

Open interest

22.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$2K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 21, 3:42 PM ET	YES	93¢	2,526	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.