polymarket
Economics
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
84%
implied YES probability
+3.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 3 days ·
High 84% ·
Low 80%
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent news mentioning this market
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Principal's Seema Shah Expects Another Fed Rate Hike This Year (Correct)
Bloomberg Politics · 15h ago
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South Africa's rand holds steady ahead of inflation data, expected rate hike
Reuters · 2h ago
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QLD: Wait For Confirmation After The Fed's Rate Hike
Seeking Alpha News · 2h ago
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Why Japan’s markets flipped the usual script after central bank rate hike
CNBC Economy · 2h ago
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Bessent Pushes, BOJ Splinters Over Rate Hike
Bloomberg Markets · 2h ago
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.