Kalshi ↔ Polymarket Arbitrage Scanner
Live cross-venue gaps for matched prediction markets. 50 pairs with gaps ≥ 3pp.
Current divergences
| Question | Kalshi YES | Polymarket YES | Gap | Match | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Pop Culture |
K 100% | P 2% | 97.4pp | 64% | Jun 19, 2026 |
|
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Politics |
K 97% | P 0% | 96.7pp | 46% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 1% | P 96% | 95.5pp | 46% | Jun 28, 2026 |
|
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Sports |
K 2% | P 98% | 95.1pp | 50% | Jun 24, 2026 |
|
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 2% | P 96% | 94.0pp | 46% | Jun 28, 2026 |
|
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 94% | P 4% | 90.8pp | 73% | Aug 03, 2026 |
|
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Sports |
K 4% | P 94% | 89.6pp | 75% | Jun 21, 2026 |
|
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Sports |
K 96% | P 7% | 89.4pp | 82% | Jun 17, 2026 |
|
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Sports |
K 94% | P 6% | 88.5pp | 62% | Jul 19, 2026 |
|
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Sports |
K 0% | P 88% | 88.1pp | 50% | Jun 21, 2026 |
|
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 11% | P 99% | 88.0pp | 46% | Jun 28, 2026 |
|
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Politics |
K 2% | P 90% | 88.0pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 4% | P 92% | 87.5pp | 46% | Jun 28, 2026 |
|
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Politics |
K 84% | P 0% | 84.5pp | 57% | Jun 18, 2026 |
|
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Politics |
K 84% | P 0% | 84.5pp | 50% | Jun 18, 2026 |
|
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? World |
K 10% | P 94% | 84.0pp | 50% | Jun 19, 2026 |
|
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Politics |
K 84% | P 1% | 83.5pp | 57% | Jun 18, 2026 |
|
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Sports |
K 2% | P 85% | 82.5pp | 50% | Jun 24, 2026 |
|
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Sports |
K 7% | P 88% | 81.8pp | 50% | Jun 20, 2026 |
|
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 16% | P 96% | 80.5pp | 46% | Jun 28, 2026 |
|
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 20% | P 99% | 78.9pp | 46% | Jun 28, 2026 |
|
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Sports |
K 86% | P 7% | 78.4pp | 50% | Jul 20, 2026 |
|
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? Politics |
K 86% | P 8% | 78.3pp | 60% | Jun 22, 2026 |
|
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Sports |
K 2% | P 78% | 76.8pp | 50% | Jun 27, 2026 |
|
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Sports |
K 0% | P 76% | 75.2pp | 50% | Jun 18, 2026 |
|
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.9pp | 56% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.8pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.8pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.7pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.6pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 1% | 73.2pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Sports |
K 14% | P 88% | 73.2pp | 50% | Jun 21, 2026 |
|
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 1% | 73.1pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 1% | 73.0pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Business |
K 6% | P 79% | 72.5pp | 60% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sports |
K 11% | P 84% | 72.5pp | 67% | Jun 27, 2026 |
|
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Sports |
K 2% | P 75% | 72.5pp | 50% | Jun 24, 2026 |
|
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 2% | 72.4pp | 56% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Sports |
K 2% | P 74% | 72.2pp | 50% | Jun 24, 2026 |
|
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 2% | 72.2pp | 56% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 3% | 71.5pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Sports |
K 11% | P 82% | 71.5pp | 50% | Jun 28, 2026 |
|
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? Pop Culture |
K 100% | P 28% | 71.2pp | 64% | Jun 19, 2026 |
|
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Politics |
K 74% | P 3% | 71.0pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Sports |
K 0% | P 70% | 70.2pp | 50% | Jun 17, 2026 |
|
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Sports |
K 2% | P 72% | 69.8pp | 50% | Jun 18, 2026 |
Matching is title-token overlap with a 45% threshold; high-confidence pairs only. Listing a pair is not investment advice — see Terms §17.