Kalshi ↔ Polymarket Arbitrage Scanner
Live cross-venue gaps for matched prediction markets. 50 pairs with gaps ≥ 3pp.
Current divergences
| Question | Kalshi YES | Polymarket YES | Gap | Match | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs Passion Academy - Map 1 Winner Sports |
K 0% | P 100% | 99.5pp | 50% | Aug 03, 2026 |
|
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Sports |
K 100% | P 0% | 99.5pp | 50% | Aug 03, 2026 |
|
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 2 Winner Sports |
K 0% | P 100% | 99.5pp | 55% | Aug 03, 2026 |
|
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Politics |
K 2% | P 98% | 95.4pp | 60% | Aug 04, 2026 |
|
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%? Politics |
K 96% | P 1% | 94.8pp | 62% | Aug 11, 2026 |
|
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Finance |
K 8% | P 97% | 88.8pp | 57% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? Politics |
K 98% | P 12% | 86.5pp | 62% | Aug 04, 2026 |
|
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? Politics |
K 98% | P 12% | 86.3pp | 62% | Aug 04, 2026 |
|
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? Politics |
K 98% | P 14% | 84.2pp | 62% | Aug 04, 2026 |
|
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? Politics |
K 98% | P 22% | 77.0pp | 57% | Aug 13, 2026 |
|
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? Politics |
K 98% | P 24% | 74.5pp | 62% | Aug 04, 2026 |
|
Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Sports |
K 100% | P 26% | 74.0pp | 50% | Aug 10, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the AL-05 House seat? Politics |
K 20% | P 94% | 73.0pp | 57% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat? Politics |
K 20% | P 93% | 72.5pp | 57% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the FL-28 House seat? Politics |
K 20% | P 92% | 71.0pp | 57% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Sports |
K 68% | P 0% | 68.5pp | 56% | Aug 03, 2026 |
|
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%? Politics |
K 96% | P 28% | 67.2pp | 62% | Aug 11, 2026 |
|
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Politics |
K 66% | P 0% | 65.8pp | 50% | Nov 07, 2028 |
|
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-05 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 6% | 60.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? Politics |
K 98% | P 39% | 59.4pp | 62% | Aug 04, 2026 |
|
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics |
K 59% | P 0% | 58.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
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Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics |
K 59% | P 0% | 58.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
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Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics |
K 59% | P 0% | 58.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics |
K 59% | P 0% | 58.9pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics |
K 59% | P 0% | 58.9pp | 57% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics |
K 59% | P 0% | 58.8pp | 50% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics |
K 59% | P 0% | 58.8pp | 57% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 8% | 58.5pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? Politics |
K 96% | P 38% | 58.2pp | 56% | Aug 11, 2026 |
|
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July? Economics |
K 62% | P 6% | 56.0pp | 60% | Aug 12, 2026 |
|
Pegula vs. Eala: Match O/U 21.5 Sports |
K 20% | P 74% | 54.0pp | 50% | Aug 09, 2026 |
|
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Science |
K 52% | P 0% | 51.6pp | 75% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July? Economics |
K 62% | P 12% | 50.7pp | 60% | Aug 12, 2026 |
|
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Science |
K 52% | P 2% | 49.9pp | 75% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Politics |
K 35% | P 84% | 49.5pp | 75% | Apr 17, 2027 |
|
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Sports |
K 8% | P 53% | 44.5pp | 50% | Oct 31, 2026 |
|
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July? Economics |
K 62% | P 20% | 42.2pp | 60% | Aug 12, 2026 |
|
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? Politics |
K 98% | P 58% | 40.4pp | 50% | Aug 13, 2026 |
|
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Politics |
K 2% | P 42% | 40.0pp | 56% | Aug 13, 2026 |
|
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Politics |
K 41% | P 1% | 40.0pp | 50% | Nov 07, 2028 |
|
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Politics |
K 41% | P 2% | 38.6pp | 50% | Nov 07, 2028 |
|
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? Economics |
K 62% | P 25% | 37.2pp | 60% | Aug 12, 2026 |
|
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? Economics |
K 62% | P 26% | 36.0pp | 60% | Aug 12, 2026 |
|
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? World |
K 35% | P 0% | 34.8pp | 56% | Apr 30, 2027 |
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Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? World |
K 35% | P 0% | 34.8pp | 56% | Apr 30, 2027 |
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Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? World |
K 35% | P 0% | 34.8pp | 56% | Apr 30, 2027 |
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Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? World |
K 35% | P 0% | 34.8pp | 50% | Apr 30, 2027 |
|
Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election? World |
K 35% | P 0% | 34.8pp | 56% | Apr 30, 2027 |
|
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? World |
K 35% | P 0% | 34.8pp | 56% | Apr 30, 2027 |
|
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? World |
K 35% | P 0% | 34.8pp | 50% | Apr 30, 2027 |
Matching is title-token overlap with a 45% threshold; high-confidence pairs only. Listing a pair is not investment advice — see Terms §17.