Kalshi ↔ Polymarket Arbitrage Scanner
Live cross-venue gaps for matched prediction markets. 50 pairs with gaps ≥ 3pp.
Current divergences
| Question | Kalshi YES | Polymarket YES | Gap | Match | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set 1 Winner: Peyton Stearns vs Sloane Stephens Sports |
K 0% | P 100% | 99.5pp | 62% | Sep 24, 2026 |
|
Set Handicap: Peyton Stearns (-1.5) vs Sloane Stephens (+1.5) Sports |
K 0% | P 100% | 99.5pp | 62% | Sep 24, 2026 |
|
Guadalajara Open Akron: Completed Match: Peyton Stearns vs Sloane Stephens Sports |
K 0% | P 100% | 99.5pp | 46% | Sep 24, 2026 |
|
Map Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs FENNEL Female (+1.5) Sports |
K 100% | P 0% | 99.5pp | 50% | Sep 18, 2026 |
|
Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Politics |
K 1% | P 100% | 99.4pp | 55% | Apr 23, 2027 |
|
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Politics |
K 1% | P 88% | 87.9pp | 75% | Apr 17, 2027 |
|
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Business |
K 10% | P 94% | 83.9pp | 100% | Dec 31, 2027 |
|
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? Politics |
K 84% | P 0% | 83.7pp | 46% | Dec 09, 2026 |
|
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Politics |
K 84% | P 3% | 81.2pp | 46% | Dec 09, 2026 |
|
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? Business |
K 80% | P 4% | 77.0pp | 50% | Jan 01, 2027 |
|
Ramp IPO before 2027? Business |
K 80% | P 4% | 76.7pp | 60% | Jan 01, 2027 |
|
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Science |
K 77% | P 0% | 76.7pp | 75% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Business |
K 80% | P 4% | 76.5pp | 60% | Jan 01, 2027 |
|
Vanta IPO before 2027? Business |
K 80% | P 4% | 76.3pp | 60% | Jan 01, 2027 |
|
Anduril IPO before 2027? Business |
K 80% | P 4% | 76.0pp | 60% | Jan 01, 2027 |
|
ByteDance IPO before 2027? Business |
K 80% | P 7% | 73.8pp | 60% | Jan 01, 2027 |
|
Will Pablo Marçal finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? World |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.2pp | 50% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? World |
K 74% | P 0% | 73.0pp | 50% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? World |
K 74% | P 1% | 73.0pp | 75% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Epic Games IPO before 2027? Business |
K 80% | P 9% | 71.2pp | 50% | Jan 01, 2027 |
|
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Economics |
K 14% | P 84% | 69.0pp | 57% | Dec 09, 2026 |
|
Caribbean Premier League: Antigua And Barbuda Falcons vs Guyana Amazon Warriors Sports |
K 31% | P 100% | 69.0pp | 50% | Sep 24, 2026 |
|
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? World |
K 76% | P 7% | 68.5pp | 100% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? Politics |
K 10% | P 76% | 67.0pp | 58% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? Sports |
K 10% | P 76% | 66.0pp | 50% | Sep 20, 2026 |
|
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Politics |
K 20% | P 84% | 65.0pp | 62% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the PA-06 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 1% | 64.9pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the TX-07 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 1% | 64.1pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? World |
K 76% | P 12% | 63.5pp | 100% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 3% | 62.7pp | 50% | Nov 04, 2026 |
|
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? World |
K 24% | P 86% | 62.5pp | 82% | Oct 05, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the HI-01 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 4% | 62.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the HI-02 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 4% | 62.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-01 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 4% | 61.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 4% | 61.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the CO-06 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 4% | 61.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-11 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 4% | 61.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-03 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 4% | 61.0pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat? Politics |
K 66% | P 5% | 60.5pp | 50% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? Finance |
K 63% | P 4% | 59.4pp | 50% | Oct 23, 2026 |
|
Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? Politics |
K 10% | P 68% | 57.5pp | 46% | Nov 03, 2026 |
|
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Economics |
K 58% | P 1% | 57.4pp | 57% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Economics |
K 58% | P 2% | 56.5pp | 57% | Dec 31, 2026 |
|
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics |
K 56% | P 0% | 55.5pp | 56% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics |
K 56% | P 0% | 55.5pp | 46% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics |
K 56% | P 0% | 55.5pp | 56% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics |
K 56% | P 0% | 55.5pp | 56% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics |
K 56% | P 0% | 55.5pp | 75% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics |
K 56% | P 0% | 55.5pp | 56% | Oct 04, 2026 |
|
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics |
K 56% | P 0% | 55.5pp | 56% | Oct 04, 2026 |
Matching is title-token overlap with a 45% threshold; high-confidence pairs only. Listing a pair is not investment advice — see Terms §17.