Tech & AI prediction markets
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Live events
216
24h volume
$1.3M
Biggest 24h move+17 pts
72%
Largest order flow (3d)$83K
3% YES
26 outcomes · $173K 24hP
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Google54%
8 outcomes · $152K 24hK
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Gemini52%
74 outcomes · $40K 24hP
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX54%
Most traded events
24h volumeBlue: Kalshi (volume in $1 contracts). Purple: Polymarket. Click a bar to open the event.
Biggest movers
all 24h swings →Markets with $2K+ traded, excluding new listings and contracts about to settle.
All tech & ai events
top 60 by volume| Event | Favorite / 50-50 line | Odds | 24h move | 24h vol | Settles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? P 26 outcomes |
54% | -4 | $173K | 2026-12-31 | |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? K 8 outcomes |
Gemini | 52% | -3 | $152K | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? K 5 outcomes |
≈ Before Jan 20, 2029 | 24% | — | $77K | 2026-11-01 |
| Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...? P 4 outcomes |
≈ December 31, 2028 | 31% | +6 | $53K | 2029-01-01 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? P 74 outcomes |
SpaceX | 54% | -4 | $40K | 2027-01-02 |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in October? K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 11 | 0% | — | $36K | 2026-11-01 |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? P 11 outcomes |
November 9–November 15 | 72% | +17 | $34K | 2027-01-04 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? P 30 outcomes |
≈ November 9 | 48% | -6 | $31K | 2026-12-31 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? P 10 outcomes |
58% | -13 | $28K | 2026-12-01 | |
| North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...? P 4 outcomes |
≈ December 31, 2028 | 34% | +3 | $28K | 2029-01-01 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? P 5 outcomes |
≈ November 30 | 60% | -15 | $28K | 2026-12-31 |
| Google market share this week K 5 outcomes |
≈ Above 17.3% | 2% | — | $22K | 2026-11-02 |
| Best AI this week K 6 outcomes |
Gemini | 98% | — | $20K | 2026-11-02 |
| Anthropic market share this week K 9 outcomes |
≈ Above 5.6% | 66% | — | $20K | 2026-11-02 |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? P 32 outcomes |
November 10 | 31% | -10 | $19K | 2026-12-01 |
| OpenAI market share this week K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 18.9% | 41% | — | $18K | 2026-11-02 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? P 12 outcomes |
November 2026 | 76% | -8 | $17K | 2028-01-01 |
| Where will Waymo operate in 2026? K 16 outcomes |
≈ Detroit, MI | 12% | +4 | $16K | 2026-12-31 |
| Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? P 4 outcomes |
≈ December 31, 2028 | 30% | +1 | $15K | 2029-01-01 |
| Measles cases in 2026? K 5 outcomes |
≈ Above 7000 | 50% | +6 | $14K | 2027-01-01 |
| Gemini Carbon released by...? P 9 outcomes |
≈ November 11 | 50% | +12 | $13K | 2027-01-01 |
| How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? P 6 outcomes |
$95B to $105B | 45% | +9 | $13K | 2028-01-01 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? P 8 outcomes |
$1.50–$1.75T | 60% | -13 | $12K | 2028-01-01 |
| Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...? P 4 outcomes |
December 31, 2028 | 32% | -2 | $12K | 2029-01-01 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? P 3 outcomes |
≈ December 31, 2027 | 55% | -4 | $11K | 2028-01-01 |
| Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026 K 8 outcomes |
≈ Above 70.2% | 72% | +13 | $10K | 2026-11-02 |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 10% | +3 | $10K | 2026-12-31 |
| DeepSeek market share this week K 5 outcomes |
≈ Above 28.9% | 80% | — | $9K | 2026-11-02 |
| When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1? K 3 outcomes |
Before Dec 31, 2026 | 58% | +4 | $8K | 2026-11-06 |
| How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31? P 7 outcomes |
12-15 | 59% | -12 | $7K | 2027-01-01 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of November? P 10 outcomes |
Alibaba | 44% | +8 | $7K | 2026-12-01 |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? P 15 outcomes |
November 30–December 6 | 21% | +10 | $7K | 2027-02-01 |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? K 3 outcomes |
≈ Before 2029 | 19% | — | $7K | 2027-01-02 |
| Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...? P 2 outcomes |
≈ December 31, 2026 | 37% | — | $7K | 2027-01-01 |
| Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut? P 5 outcomes |
≈ 1470+ | 52% | -8 | $6K | 2027-07-01 |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? P 6 outcomes |
0 | 72% | +4 | $6K | 2027-01-01 |
| Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut? P 5 outcomes |
≈ 70%+ | 40% | -6 | $5K | 2027-07-01 |
| Third-best AI Lab end of November? P 20 outcomes |
Meta | 63% | -2 | $5K | 2026-12-01 |
| AI capability growth this year? K 4 outcomes |
≈ At least 1550 score | 57% | +9 | $5K | 2027-01-01 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) P 4 outcomes |
1.8T+ | 56% | -9 | $5K | 2028-01-01 |
| Total space launches in October K 9 outcomes |
≈ Above 12 | 2% | — | $5K | 2026-11-02 |
| SB Energy IPO Closing Market Cap P 9 outcomes |
No IPO before January 2027 | 93% | — | $4K | 2027-01-01 |
| Texas enacts data center moratorium by...? P 4 outcomes |
≈ December 31, 2028 | 34% | -2 | $4K | 2029-01-01 |
| Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut? P 4 outcomes |
≈ 60%+ | 62% | +4 | $4K | 2027-07-01 |
| Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? P 6 outcomes |
≈ 60%+ | 65% | +6 | $4K | 2027-01-01 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? P 4 outcomes |
≈ 65%+ | 42% | +8 | $4K | 2027-07-01 |
| Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut? P 3 outcomes |
≈ Top 20 | 45% | +7 | $4K | 2027-07-01 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026? P 12 outcomes |
$4.50-$5.00 | 19% | +4 | $3K | 2027-01-01 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut? P 5 outcomes |
≈ 1450+ | 58% | -8 | $3K | 2027-07-01 |
| Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? P 4 outcomes |
1440+ | 50% | +3 | $3K | 2027-07-01 |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? K 4 outcomes |
Anthropic | 78% | +2 | $3K | 2026-12-31 |
| #2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On) P 16 outcomes |
Anthropic | 54% | -10 | $3K | 2026-12-01 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? P 6 outcomes |
1480+ | 24% | — | $2K | 2027-01-01 |
| OpenAI IPO by...? P 8 outcomes |
≈ June 30, 2027 | 44% | — | $2K | 2027-07-01 |
| When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 22% | -4 | $2K | 2027-01-01 |
| Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026? K 10 outcomes |
≈ Central African Republic | 56% | — | $2K | 2027-01-01 |
| SpaceX Starship 15th launch? K 3 outcomes |
≈ Before Nov 27, 2026 | 78% | -10 | $2K | 2026-11-13 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 15% | -12 | $2K | 2027-01-01 |
| Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? P 4 outcomes |
≈ December 31, 2028 | 34% | +2 | $2K | 2029-01-01 |
| Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31? P 12 outcomes |
≈ Denver, CO | 88% | — | $2K | 2027-01-01 |
Settling in the next two weeks
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?· ≈ Before Jan 20, 2029 24%
- How many launches will SpaceX have in October?· ≈ Above 11 0%
- Google market share this week· ≈ Above 17.3% 2%
- Best AI this week· Gemini 98%
- Anthropic market share this week· ≈ Above 5.6% 66%
- OpenAI market share this week· ≈ Above 18.9% 41%
- Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026· ≈ Above 70.2% 72%
- DeepSeek market share this week· ≈ Above 28.9% 80%
Large orders (3 days)
Kalshi- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
YES $2K · NO $81K · 13 orders
- Claude: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
YES $15K · NO $31K · 21 orders
- Grok: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $33K · 8 orders
- Gemini: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
YES $24K · NO $4K · 13 orders
- ChatGPT: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $12K · 5 orders
- Claude: Best AI this week
YES $0 · NO $12K · 1 orders
- Muse: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $12K · 4 orders
- Qwen: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $11K · 2 orders
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. How to read prediction markets.