What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Companies

Before 2027

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume 297 Open interest 115.5K Event Tesla Optimus released this year?

12%

implied YES probability

-3.0pp 24h

Last 89 days · High 30% · Low 12% · 7d +15.4pp · 30d -21.1pp

Spread 2.0¢ · Mid 18.0¢

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.