What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (62d) All outcomes: Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

chance of YES4% -0.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

4–6%

30d +0 pts · 7d -4 pts

24h volume

61.1K

$1 contracts

Open interest

9.4M

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

4¢ / 4¢

spread 0.1¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 4.5¢ · spread 0.1¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 10:02 PM ET	NO	95¢	17,666	$17K
Oct 30, 6:56 PM ET	NO	95¢	2,650	$3K
Oct 30, 6:14 PM ET	NO	95¢	8,400	$8K
Oct 30, 11:40 AM ET	NO	95¢	1,055	$1K
Oct 30, 7:42 AM ET	NO	95¢	5,800	$6K
Oct 29, 10:29 PM ET	NO	95¢	1,449	$1K
Oct 29, 7:45 PM ET	YES	5¢	44,624	$2K
Oct 29, 5:58 PM ET	NO	95¢	2,017	$2K
Oct 28, 2:29 PM ET	NO	96¢	3,221	$3K
Oct 28, 2:14 PM ET	NO	95¢	19,986	$19K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.