What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 01, 2026 (1d) All outcomes: Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

chance of YES1%

Price range (120d)

1–5%

30d -50 pts · 7d +0 pts

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.5M

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

$21K

5% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 28, 9:31 AM ET	NO	99¢	2,791	$3K
Oct 28, 8:06 AM ET	NO	99¢	1,092	$1K
Oct 27, 9:50 PM ET	NO	99¢	1,544	$2K
Oct 26, 7:56 PM ET	NO	99¢	8,607	$9K
Oct 26, 5:41 AM ET	NO	99¢	2,204	$2K
Oct 26, 1:22 AM ET	NO	99¢	4,042	$4K
Oct 23, 1:53 AM ET	YES	1¢	100,000	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.