Anthropic market share this week
50/50 line32%Above 5.8%
Line nearest 50/50
32%
Market median
5.727%
Biggest 24h move-47 pts
32%
24h volume
$21K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove 4.5%
100%
Above 4.9%
100%
Above 5.4%
98%
+36
Above 5.2%
98%
+4
Above 5.5%
90%
-2
Above 5.6%
80%
-10
Above 5.8%
32%
-47
Above 6.1%
4%
-9
Above 6.5%
0%
-1
What the market expects
median 5.727%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 4.5%YES $7K · NO $0 · 4 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 6.5%YES $0 · NO $6K · 3 orders · biggest $3K
- Above 4.9%YES $5K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $3K
- Above 6.1%YES $0 · NO $3K · 2 orders · biggest $2K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | YES | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 6.1% | NO | 95¢ | $2K | |
| Above 6.1% | NO | 92¢ | $2K | |
| Above 6.5% | NO | 98¢ | $3K | |
| Above 4.5% | YES | 99¢ | $1K | |
| Above 4.9% | YES | 99¢ | $3K | |
| Above 6.5% | NO | 98¢ | $1K | |
| Above 6.5% | NO | 96¢ | $2K | |
| Above 4.5% | YES | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 4.9% | YES | 95¢ | $1K |
All outcomes
9| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 100% | — | $3K | $7K |
| Above 4.9% | 100% | — | $3K | $5K |
| Above 5.4% | 98% | +36.5 | $394 | $209 |
| Above 5.2% | 98% | +3.5 | $1 | $630 |
| Above 5.5% | 90% | -2.5 | $954 | $903 |
| Above 5.6% | 80% | -9.5 | $1K | $668 |
| Above 5.8% | 32% | -47.0 | $4K | $2K |
| Above 6.1% | 4% | -9.0 | $4K | $5K |
| Above 6.5% | 0% | -1.0 | $5K | $7K |