What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 90%, implying a 90% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 02, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 02, 2026 (1d) All outcomes: Anthropic market share this week

chance of YES90% -2.5pp in 24h

Price range (4d)

26–94%

24h volume

954

$1 contracts

Open interest

903

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 4d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 4.5%100%2.8K

Above 4.9%100%3.5K

Above 5.6%80%1.3K

Above 5.8%40%3.9K