OpenAI market share this week
50/50 line46%Above 18.6%
Line nearest 50/50
46%
Market median
18.514%
Biggest 24h move-19 pts
2%
24h volume
$18K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove 17.3%
100%
Above 16.1%
100%
Above 18.6%
46%
-24
Above 18.9%
43%
+33
Above 19.2%
7%
-14
Above 20.0%
2%
-19
Above 21.0%
0%
-1
What the market expects
median 18.514%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 16.1%YES $10K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $9K
- Above 20.0%YES $0 · NO $8K · 3 orders · biggest $4K
- Above 21.0%YES $0 · NO $8K · 4 orders · biggest $3K
- Above 17.3%YES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 20.0% | NO | 99¢ | $4K | |
| Above 21.0% | NO | 99¢ | $3K | |
| Above 21.0% | NO | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 20.0% | NO | 98¢ | $3K | |
| Above 20.0% | NO | 94¢ | $1K | |
| Above 21.0% | NO | 98¢ | $2K | |
| Above 17.3% | YES | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 21.0% | NO | 98¢ | $1K | |
| Above 16.1% | YES | 99¢ | $1K | |
| Above 16.1% | YES | 98¢ | $9K |
All outcomes
7| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 17.3% | 100% | — | $954 | $3K |
| Above 16.1% | 100% | — | $616 | $9K |
| Above 18.6% | 46% | -24.5 | $403 | $275 |
| Above 18.9% | 43% | +33.0 | $41 | $41 |
| Above 19.2% | 7% | -14.0 | $7 | $590 |
| Above 20.0% | 2% | -19.0 | $10K | $9K |
| Above 21.0% | 0% | -1.0 | $7K | $9K |