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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

14 outcomesSettles Dec 31, 2026 (73d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line42%October 21
Line nearest 50/50
42%
October 21
Runner-up
83%
October 31
Biggest 24h move-10 pts
60%
October 24
24h volume
$26K
$2.2M open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
October 24 60% -10
October 22 60% +2
October 21 42% -10
October 9 0% -2
October 8 0% -1
October 14 0% -28
October 15 0% -13

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

14
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
December 31 98% +0.9 $444 $156K
October 31 83% +0.8 $7K $156K
October 24 60% -10.5 $10K $156K
October 22 60% +2.0 $4K $156K
October 21 42% -9.5 $5K $156K
October 17 0% -0.8 $0 $156K
October 18 0% — $88 $156K
October 10 0% -1.1 $0 $156K
October 9 0% -2.1 $0 $156K
October 12 0% -4.3 $0 $156K
October 8 0% -1.3 $0 $156K
October 14 0% -27.8 $0 $156K
October 16 0% -3.1 $0 $156K
October 15 0% -13.0 $0 $156K

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.