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Live events
1,911
24h volume
$77.5M
Biggest 24h move+24 pts
64%
Largest order flow (3d)$2.8M
93% YES
128 outcomes · $12.0M 24hP
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
None22%
4 outcomes · $9.5M 24hK
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Democrats sweep70%
2 outcomes · $6.0M 24hK
Texas Senate winner?
James Talarico70%
Most traded events
24h volumeBlue: Kalshi (volume in $1 contracts). Purple: Polymarket. Click a bar to open the event.
Biggest movers
all 24h swings →Markets with $2K+ traded, excluding new listings and contracts about to settle.
All politics & elections events
top 60 by volume| Event | Favorite / 50-50 line | Odds | 24h move | 24h vol | Settles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? P 128 outcomes |
None | 22% | +5 | $12.0M | 2026-11-03 |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? K 4 outcomes |
Democrats sweep | 70% | +2 | $9.5M | 2027-02-01 |
| Texas Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
James Talarico | 70% | -2 | $6.0M | 2027-11-03 |
| Who will control the House? K 2 outcomes |
Democratic Party | 94% | — | $4.5M | 2027-02-01 |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms P 5 outcomes |
Democrats Sweep | 70% | +1 | $2.9M | 2026-11-04 |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? P 9 outcomes |
Democratic Party | 94% | — | $2.2M | 2026-11-04 |
| Michigan Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Abdul El-Sayed | 76% | -2 | $1.7M | 2027-11-03 |
| Texas Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Greg Abbott | 66% | +3 | $1.6M | 2027-11-03 |
| Nebraska Senate winner? K 3 outcomes |
Pete Ricketts | 76% | -10 | $1.5M | 2027-11-03 |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner P 13 outcomes |
Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 80% | -4 | $1.5M | 2026-11-04 |
| Kansas Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Adam Hamilton | 50% | -3 | $1.4M | 2027-11-03 |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? P 9 outcomes |
Democratic Party | 70% | +2 | $1.2M | 2026-11-04 |
| Who will control the Senate? K 2 outcomes |
Democratic Party | 70% | +2 | $1.2M | 2027-02-01 |
| California Governor winner? (Person) K 2 outcomes |
Xavier Becerra | 98% | — | $1.2M | 2027-11-03 |
| Florida Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Byron Donalds | 64% | -5 | $1.1M | 2027-11-03 |
| Nevada Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Aaron Ford | 74% | -3 | $872K | 2027-11-03 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? P 22 outcomes |
≈ November 15 | 52% | +4 | $796K | 2027-01-01 |
| Nebraska Senate Election Winner P 13 outcomes |
Pete Ricketts (R) | 78% | -9 | $776K | 2026-11-04 |
| Maine Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Troy Jackson | 68% | +5 | $771K | 2027-11-03 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee K 37 outcomes |
Gavin Newsom | 16% | +1 | $719K | 2028-11-07 |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? K 10 outcomes |
Above 52 | 48% | +5 | $708K | 2027-02-01 |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee K 30 outcomes |
J.D. Vance | 36% | -1 | $558K | 2028-11-07 |
| How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? K 15 outcomes |
Below 45 | 14% | -3 | $500K | 2027-02-01 |
| Iowa Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Ashley Hinson | 56% | +4 | $430K | 2027-11-03 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? P 25 outcomes |
≈ December 31 | 45% | +5 | $411K | 2027-01-01 |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? K 24 outcomes |
J.D. Vance | 20% | -1 | $404K | 2029-11-07 |
| New York Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Kathy Hochul | 96% | — | $401K | 2027-11-03 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 P 128 outcomes |
JD Vance | 18% | -1 | $396K | 2028-11-08 |
| California Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Xavier Becerra | 98% | — | $385K | 2027-11-03 |
| Alaska Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Democratic party | 70% | +2 | $383K | 2027-11-03 |
| Maine-Texas Senate Combo K 5 outcomes |
James Talarico and Troy Jackson | 57% | +2 | $370K | 2027-11-03 |
| Ohio Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Amy Acton | 80% | -2 | $367K | 2027-11-03 |
| Minnesota Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Peggy Flanagan | 90% | — | $364K | 2027-11-03 |
| Texas Senate Election Winner P 13 outcomes |
James Talarico (D) | 72% | +1 | $362K | 2026-11-04 |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? K 12 outcomes |
Above 249 | 28% | +2 | $332K | 2027-02-01 |
| South Carolina Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Darline Graham | 72% | -2 | $324K | 2027-11-03 |
| California Governor Election Winner P 45 outcomes |
Xavier Becerra | 98% | — | $320K | 2026-11-04 |
| How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? K 11 outcomes |
Below 193 | 46% | -1 | $299K | 2027-02-01 |
| Florida Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Ashley Moody | 88% | — | $289K | 2027-11-03 |
| Georgia Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Keisha Lance Bottoms | 66% | -4 | $285K | 2027-11-03 |
| Kansas Senate Election Winner P 13 outcomes |
Adam Hamilton (D) | 52% | -3 | $280K | 2026-11-04 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 P 128 outcomes |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49% | -1 | $278K | 2028-11-08 |
| Blue wave in 2026? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 84% | — | $262K | 2027-02-01 |
| 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) K 10 outcomes |
Democrats, 8 to 10% | 28% | +3 | $240K | 2027-11-03 |
| Georgia Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Jon Ossoff | 97% | — | $229K | 2027-11-03 |
| Massachusetts Governor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Maura Healey | 98% | — | $218K | 2027-11-03 |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) K 7 outcomes |
Below 53 | 52% | -3 | $210K | 2027-02-01 |
| Texas Senate margin of victory K 9 outcomes |
≈ James Talarico, 3+ pts | 50% | +7 | $205K | 2027-11-03 |
| Texas Governor-Senate combo K 4 outcomes |
Greg Abbott and James Talarico win | 40% | -1 | $204K | 2027-11-03 |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) K 2 outcomes |
Abdul El-Sayed | 76% | -3 | $201K | 2027-11-03 |
| Los Angeles Mayor winner? K 2 outcomes |
Karen Bass | 57% | +3 | $199K | 2027-06-02 |
| Closest Senate race in 2026? K 20 outcomes |
Iowa | 14% | +3 | $189K | 2027-01-03 |
| Will the SAVE Act become law? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 4% | — | $189K | 2027-01-04 |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner P 29 outcomes |
Mary Peltola | 72% | +2 | $173K | 2026-11-04 |
| Ohio Senate Election Winner P 13 outcomes |
Sherrod Brown (D) | 72% | +2 | $172K | 2026-11-04 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? K 7 outcomes |
No one | 52% | -8 | $168K | 2027-10-27 |
| Ohio Senate winner? K 2 outcomes |
Sherrod Brown | 70% | +1 | $167K | 2027-11-03 |
| Florida Governor Election Winner P 13 outcomes |
Byron Donalds (R) | 64% | +6 | $146K | 2026-11-04 |
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? K 33 outcomes |
≈ Anna Kelly | 21% | +3 | $143K | 2029-01-27 |
| NC-03 House winner? K 2 outcomes |
Greg Murphy | 55% | -5 | $142K | 2027-11-03 |
Settling in the next two weeks
- Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?· None 22%
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms· Democrats Sweep 70%
- Which party will win the House in 2026?· Democratic Party 94%
- Michigan Senate Election Winner· Abdul El-Sayed (D) 80%
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?· Democratic Party 70%
- Nebraska Senate Election Winner · Pete Ricketts (R) 78%
- Texas Senate Election Winner· James Talarico (D) 72%
- California Governor Election Winner· Xavier Becerra 98%
Large orders (3 days)
Kalshi- Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?
YES $2.6M · NO $201K · 162 orders
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
YES $1.4M · NO $1.3M · 373 orders
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
YES $1.3M · NO $134K · 198 orders
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
YES $1.1M · NO $263K · 138 orders
- Will Republicans win the House in 2026?
YES $281K · NO $983K · 180 orders
- Will Democrats win the House in 2026?
YES $935K · NO $44K · 133 orders
- Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?
YES $800K · NO $146K · 36 orders
- Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?
YES $13K · NO $698K · 37 orders
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. How to read prediction markets.