polymarket
Politics
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
93%
implied YES probability
-1.1pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 95% ·
Low 72%
· 7d +2.9pp
· 30d +9.9pp
How this market resolves
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, currently shows a YES price of 0.90, indicating a perceived probability of approximately 90%. This assessment is informed by known facts about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the military situation around Kostyantynivka. The market's current pricing reflects expectations based on these factors. Any significant changes to the military situation or diplomatic efforts that could impact Russia's ability to capture the area would likely cause the YES price to fluctuate, potentially increasing if such developments favor Russian control and decreasing if they hinder it.
Generated Jul 28, 2026
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