What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 92%, implying a 92% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2025. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

December 31, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2025 (0d) 24h volume $718 Open interest $376.3K Event Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

92%

implied YES probability

Last 91 days · High 92% · Low 72% · 7d +11.6pp · 30d +22.8pp

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.