What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 80%, implying a 80% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2025. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

September 30, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2025 (0d) 24h volume $337 Open interest $376.4K Event Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

80%

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Last 44 days · High 84% · Low 51% · 7d +15.1pp · 30d +44.1pp

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

Open on Polymarket

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.