Kalshi Large Order Flow

Kalshi orders worth $1,000 or more from the last 24 hours. A single order is filled in many pieces — the fills below are re-assembled into the orders that produced them, so a $10,000 trade appears once rather than as dozens of small prints.

$45,112,075
Large-order notional
10,909
Orders
40
Markets
$28,693,808
YES flow
$16,418,266
NO flow

Where the size is going

Markets ranked by large-order notional, split by the side the taker lifted.

#MarketOrdersYESNOSkewTotal
1 Alexander Zverev wins
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE · Sports
587 $5,612,938 $59,387
$5,672,325
2 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins?
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · Sports · closed
558 $3,626,781 $388,887
$4,015,668
3 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins?
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-LAR · Sports · closed
740 $692,899 $2,713,663
$3,406,562
4 Karen Khachanov wins
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-KHA · Sports
496 $344,617 $2,190,492
$2,535,109
5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0 · Economics
316 $734,373 $1,419,158
$2,153,532
6 Elena Rybakina wins
KXWTAMATCH-26SEP10GAURYB-RYB · Sports · closed
415 $955,514 $473,698
$1,429,212
7 Ben Shelton wins
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11TIASHE-SHE · Sports
378 $1,237,777 $141,080
$1,378,857
8 Coco Gauff wins
KXWTAMATCH-26SEP10GAURYB-GAU · Sports · closed
366 $720,898 $569,086
$1,289,984
9 Frances Tiafoe wins
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11TIASHE-TIA · Sports
303 $749,465 $330,897
$1,080,362
10 Matej Dodig wins
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11DODDAL-DOD · Sports
318 $732,712 $245,436
$978,148
11 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H25 · Economics
167 $720,720 $206,986
$927,706
12 Sevilla wins
KXLALIGAGAME-26SEP13SEVVCF-SEV · Sports
207 $656,113 $204,640
$860,753
13 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP112045-45 · Crypto · closed
167 $717,583 $141,334
$858,918
14 Yuta Shimizu wins
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP10MORSHI-SHI · Sports · closed
308 $564,649 $291,908
$856,557
15 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP102345-45 · Crypto · closed
291 $547,794 $288,982
$836,776
16 Hiroki Moriya wins
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP10MORSHI-MOR · Sports · closed
292 $435,008 $373,239
$808,247
17 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP102315-15 · Crypto · closed
280 $333,988 $438,380
$772,368
18 Enrico Dalla Valle wins
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11DODDAL-DAL · Sports
264 $281,142 $484,407
$765,549
19 Laslo Djere wins
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11DJESAK-DJE · Sports · closed
206 $679,975 $78,484
$758,459
20 Anna Blinkova wins
KXWTACHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11JACBLI-BLI · Sports
191 $742,192 $9,740
$751,932
21 KXBTC15M-26SEP111230-30
KXBTC15M-26SEP111230-30 · closed
210 $27,189 $704,982
$732,170
22 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP111415-15 · Crypto · closed
199 $20,998 $707,121
$728,119
23 KXBTC15M-26SEP111530-30
KXBTC15M-26SEP111530-30 · closed
196 $575,680 $140,604
$716,284
24 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP111015-15 · Crypto · closed
284 $193,306 $521,373
$714,679
25 Will Missouri win the Missouri vs Kansas college football game?
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP11MIZZKU-MIZZ · Sports
196 $572,501 $131,990
$704,492
26 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP111515-15 · Crypto · closed
191 $625,437 $66,145
$691,583
27 KXBTC15M-26SEP111430-30
KXBTC15M-26SEP111430-30 · closed
202 $673,139 $10,903
$684,042
28 Zdenek Kolar wins
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11KOLBAR-KOL · Sports · closed
205 $466,523 $215,169
$681,692
29 Stefanos Sakellaridis wins
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11DJESAK-SAK · Sports · closed
219 $280,452 $375,494
$655,946
30 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP111215-15 · Crypto · closed
197 $637,613 $6,580
$644,193
31 KXBTC15M-26SEP111500-00
KXBTC15M-26SEP111500-00 · closed
178 $92,293 $549,711
$642,004
32 KXBTC15M-26SEP111200-00
KXBTC15M-26SEP111200-00 · closed
180 $14,211 $608,908
$623,119
33 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP111645-45 · Crypto · closed
247 $383,560 $234,509
$618,069
34 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP110015-15 · Crypto · closed
162 $552,952 $54,577
$607,529
35 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP111845-45 · Crypto · closed
218 $498,315 $102,625
$600,940
36 KXBTC15M-26SEP111830-30
KXBTC15M-26SEP111830-30 · closed
225 $222,418 $377,635
$600,053
37 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP112015-15 · Crypto · closed
173 $557,770 $33,017
$590,787
38 BTC price up in next 15 mins?
KXBTC15M-26SEP110115-15 · Crypto · closed
210 $289,801 $293,702
$583,503
39 KXBTC15M-26SEP110000-00
KXBTC15M-26SEP110000-00 · closed
204 $373,973 $205,547
$579,520
40 Claire Liu wins
KXWTACHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11JEALIU-LIU · Sports
163 $548,538 $27,792
$576,329

Largest individual orders

#MarketSideNotionalContractsAvg priceFillsTime
1 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $810,000 1,000,000 81¢ 31
2 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $445,500 550,000 81¢ 15
3 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $440,000 550,000 80¢ 24
4 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $391,734 413,319 95¢ 9
5 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $373,671 377,446 99¢ 2456
6 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $355,316 368,517 96¢ 33
7 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $307,273 310,377 99¢ 56
8 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $76,860.68
KXBTC15M-26SEP110015-15 · closed
YES $209,308 209,518 100¢ 41
9 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,283.01
KXBTC15M-26SEP112115-15 · closed
YES $200,167 200,368 100¢ 34
10 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $195,918 204,082 96¢ 2
11 Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech · ODU vs VT (Sep 12)
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12ODUVT-VT
YES $195,697 215,159 91¢ 31
12 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S202609EE0CCAD87-88A93B6A198
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S202609EE0CCAD87-88A93B6A198 · closed
NO $193,600 200,000 97¢ 1
13 Chicago WS wins · Chicago WS
KXMLBGAME-26SEP101940PITCWS-CWS · closed
NO $157,893 168,768 94¢ 50
14 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026C74A7B0FE29-D0762E54F72
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026C74A7B0FE29-D0762E54F72 · closed
NO $154,982 156,706 99¢ 1
15 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? · Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0
NO $151,030 184,183 82¢ 13
16 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins? · Los Angeles R
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-LAR · closed
NO $132,500 250,000 53¢ 2
17 Boston College wins by over 3.5 points · Boston College wins by over 3.5 points
KXNCAAFSPREAD-26SEP11RUTGBC-BC4
YES $130,259 277,146 47¢ 33
18 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,263.62
KXBTC15M-26SEP112045-45 · closed
YES $129,870 130,000 100¢ 2
19 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $129,819 149,217 87¢ 1
20 Missouri wins by over 5.5 points · Missouri wins by over 5.5 points
KXNCAAFSPREAD-26SEP11MIZZKU-MIZZ6
YES $121,658 248,282 49¢ 5
21 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026F76CF178DA2-3083AE48B01
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026F76CF178DA2-3083AE48B01 · closed
YES $120,522 255,885 47¢ 1
22 Tie is the result · Tie
KXLALIGAGAME-26SEP13SEVVCF-TIE
YES $118,002 224,874 52¢ 167
23 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $114,418 120,440 95¢ 148
24 Jaume Munar wins · Jaume Munar
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11MUNBRA-MUN · closed
YES $113,472 140,513 81¢ 56
25 Barbados Royals wins · Barbados Royals
KXCPLMATCH-26SEP101900SKNBAR-BAR · closed
YES $110,960 113,286 98¢ 52
26 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,517.52
KXBTC15M-26SEP111415-15 · closed
NO $109,714 109,824 100¢ 46
27 Fiona Ferro wins · Fiona Ferro
KXWTACHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11FERHAV-FER · closed
YES $105,306 141,803 74¢ 62
28 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $104,000 200,000 52¢ 1
29 Karen Khachanov wins · Karen Khachanov
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-KHA
NO $103,345 117,437 88¢ 6
30 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026CE0810A8908-AC84BB30056
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026CE0810A8908-AC84BB30056 · closed
YES $100,820 245,902 41¢ 1
31 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20268781270BACE-9B12A333634
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20268781270BACE-9B12A333634 · closed
NO $99,260 105,934 94¢ 1
32 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $98,999 99,999 99¢ 8
33 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $98,619 123,274 80¢ 1
34 Karen Khachanov wins · Karen Khachanov
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-KHA
NO $97,943 122,429 80¢ 18
35 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $97,922 188,311 52¢ 23
36 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026E6B8413AC24-C09EA1A4CC7
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026E6B8413AC24-C09EA1A4CC7 · closed
NO $97,611 101,046 97¢ 1
37 Stade Rennais wins · Stade Rennais
KXLIGUE1GAME-26SEP11RENOLM-REN
YES $96,698 206,298 47¢ 40
38 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20266A2EDF18B3F-ACBFA2F46F4
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20266A2EDF18B3F-ACBFA2F46F4 · closed
YES $95,759 260,213 37¢ 1
39 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins? · Los Angeles R
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-LAR · closed
NO $95,628 180,430 53¢ 16
40 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $78,766.88
KXBTC15M-26SEP111115-15 · closed
NO $95,567 95,663 100¢ 33
41 Ioannis Xilas wins · Ioannis Xilas
KXITFMATCH-26SEP11XILLOG-XIL
YES $94,793 97,856 97¢ 122
42 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins? · Los Angeles R
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-LAR · closed
NO $94,460 98,396 96¢ 20
43 Fiorentina wins · Fiorentina
KXSERIEAGAME-26SEP11VENFIO-FIO
YES $93,077 235,555 40¢ 63
44 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,374.66
KXBTC15M-26SEP110230-30 · closed
NO $87,828 87,916 100¢ 45
45 Will Democrats win the House in 2026? · Democratic Party
CONTROLH-2026-D
YES $86,000 100,000 86¢ 7
46 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? · Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0
NO $84,072 102,900 82¢ 15
47 Sevilla wins · Sevilla
KXLALIGAGAME-26SEP13SEVVCF-SEV
YES $83,200 160,000 52¢ 21
48 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,304.42
KXBTC15M-26SEP110345-45 · closed
NO $80,987 81,068 100¢ 36
49 Will Pittsburgh win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship? · Pittsburgh
KXMLB-26-PIT
NO $80,733 80,814 100¢ 6
50 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? · Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0
NO $80,190 99,000 81¢ 19
51 Fiorentina wins · Fiorentina
KXSERIEAGAME-26SEP11VENFIO-FIO
YES $77,641 110,000 71¢ 35
52 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026EAB0B7E2320-78ED5F912BC
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026EAB0B7E2320-78ED5F912BC · closed
NO $74,465 75,217 99¢ 1
53 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $73,614 99,479 74¢ 20
54 Chicago C wins · Chicago C
KXMLBGAME-26SEP111420PITCHC-CHC
YES $72,052 72,779 99¢ 148
55 Karen Khachanov wins · Karen Khachanov
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-KHA
NO $71,327 73,059 98¢ 21
56 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $70,113 73,803 95¢ 1
57 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026BDA0E789A11-24D665CB937
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026BDA0E789A11-24D665CB937 · closed
NO $70,072 102,145 69¢ 1
58 San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins? · San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF · closed
YES $68,895 91,034 76¢ 1156
59 Rutgers wins · Rutgers
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP11RUTGBC-RUTG
NO $68,541 75,319 91¢ 12
60 Alexander Zverev wins by over 1.5 sets? · Alexander Zverev wins by over 1.5 sets
KXATPSSPREAD-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE2
YES $67,978 101,094 67¢ 19
61 Missouri wins by over 6.5 points · Missouri wins by over 6.5 points
KXNCAAFSPREAD-26SEP11MIZZKU-MIZZ7
YES $67,116 145,905 46¢ 12
62 Karen Khachanov wins · Karen Khachanov
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-KHA
NO $66,477 68,533 97¢ 2
63 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $76,946.77
KXBTC15M-26SEP110030-30 · closed
YES $66,058 66,124 100¢ 54
64 Boston College wins by over 3.5 points · Boston College wins by over 3.5 points
KXNCAAFSPREAD-26SEP11RUTGBC-BC4
YES $65,471 142,329 46¢ 14
65 Elena Rybakina wins · Elena Rybakina
KXWTAMATCH-26SEP10GAURYB-RYB · closed
YES $65,160 70,833 92¢ 37
66 Over 8.5 runs scored · Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP111905NYMNYY-9
YES $63,836 133,274 48¢ 38
67 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs · Over 0.5 runs in the 1st inning
KXMLBRFI-26SEP111915PHIATL
NO $62,700 110,000 57¢ 30
68 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,740.10
KXBTC15M-26SEP111000-00 · closed
YES $62,312 62,374 100¢ 12
69 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,166.11
KXBTC15M-26SEP111830-30 · closed
NO $61,997 62,061 100¢ 9
70 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,117.97
KXBTC15M-26SEP111930-30 · closed
YES $61,996 62,058 100¢ 1
71 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,206.82
KXBTC15M-26SEP112015-15 · closed
YES $61,996 62,058 100¢ 29
72 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,263.62
KXBTC15M-26SEP112045-45 · closed
YES $61,994 62,078 100¢ 18
73 Villanova wins · Villanova
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP11VILLLOU-VILL
NO $61,703 62,326 99¢ 166
74 Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev
KXATPMATCH-26SEP11ZVEKHA-ZVE
YES $61,652 72,532 85¢ 9
75 South Africa wins · South Africa
KXODIMATCH-26SEP110330SANAM-SA · closed
YES $61,411 67,485 91¢ 4
76 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,795.94
KXBTC15M-26SEP111230-30 · closed
NO $61,001 61,066 100¢ 24
77 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $78,766.88
KXBTC15M-26SEP111115-15 · closed
NO $60,996 61,057 100¢ 2
78 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $78,545.51
KXBTC15M-26SEP111130-30 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 2
79 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $78,650.48
KXBTC15M-26SEP111200-00 · closed
NO $60,996 61,057 100¢ 2
80 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,671.90
KXBTC15M-26SEP111215-15 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 26
81 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,678.86
KXBTC15M-26SEP111245-45 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 2
82 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,774.67
KXBTC15M-26SEP111300-00 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 1
83 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,823.81
KXBTC15M-26SEP111345-45 · closed
NO $60,996 61,057 100¢ 42
84 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,517.52
KXBTC15M-26SEP111415-15 · closed
NO $60,996 61,057 100¢ 5
85 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $76,991.99
KXBTC15M-26SEP111430-30 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 38
86 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,090.78
KXBTC15M-26SEP111500-00 · closed
NO $60,996 61,057 100¢ 2
87 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,271.95
KXBTC15M-26SEP111600-00 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 1
88 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,306.16
KXBTC15M-26SEP111615-15 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 22
89 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,083.42
KXBTC15M-26SEP111815-15 · closed
YES $60,996 61,057 100¢ 2
90 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $78,722.84
KXBTC15M-26SEP111145-45 · closed
NO $60,993 61,066 100¢ 39
91 KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0-SHARD1-S2026F8151C1E195-21687FE940E
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0-SHARD1-S2026F8151C1E195-21687FE940E · closed
YES $60,923 153,846 40¢ 1
92 Laslo Djere wins · Laslo Djere
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP11DJESAK-DJE · closed
YES $60,632 61,870 98¢ 52
93 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $76,845.52
KXBTC15M-26SEP102330-30 · closed
NO $59,998 60,058 100¢ 1
94 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $76,900.45
KXBTC15M-26SEP102130-30 · closed
NO $59,997 60,057 100¢ 27
95 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $76,946.77
KXBTC15M-26SEP110030-30 · closed
YES $59,996 60,056 100¢ 1
96 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,223.84
KXBTC15M-26SEP110215-15 · closed
YES $59,996 60,056 100¢ 1
97 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $77,374.66
KXBTC15M-26SEP110230-30 · closed
NO $59,996 60,056 100¢ 2
98 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $78,590.75
KXBTC15M-26SEP111100-00 · closed
YES $59,996 60,056 100¢ 37
99 BTC price up in next 15 mins? · Target Price: $76,942.26
KXBTC15M-26SEP102215-15 · closed
YES $59,994 60,076 100¢ 29
100 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? · Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0
NO $59,966 72,248 83¢ 7

How to read this

Kalshi is a regulated exchange and its public tape is anonymous — there is no account or wallet attached to a trade, so this page tracks order size, not traders. A YES buyer and a NO buyer are on opposite sides of the same contract, so the skew bar shows which side large takers are paying up for. Size alone is not a forecast: a large order may be a hedge, a market maker laying off risk, or one leg of a spread.