kalshi Economics

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Fed maintains rate
Closes Sep 16, 2026 (46d) 24h volume 33.7K Open interest 218.0K Event Fed decision in Sep 2026?
42%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 76 days · High 85% · Low 37% · 7d -2.3pp · 30d -34.4pp
85%37%

Other outcomes in this event

Hike 25bps
57% YES
24h vol 42.4K
Cut 25bps
2% YES
24h vol 46.6K
Hike >25bps
2% YES
24h vol 222.2K
Cut >25bps
0% YES
24h vol 14.3K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 42% probability that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent monetary policy decisions and economic indicators. The current price suggests that market participants are weighing the potential impact of rate hikes on inflation, employment, and overall economic growth. A change in the probability of a rate hike would likely be driven by new information or developments in these areas, such as changes in inflation rates, GDP growth, or labor market conditions. As the September 2026 meeting approaches, the market's assessment may evolve based on incoming data and shifting expectations about the Fed's actions.
Generated Jul 30, 2026

Top of book

BidSizeAskSize
41.0¢ 128 42.0¢ 7089
40.0¢ 197 43.0¢ 24145
39.0¢ 176 44.0¢ 23323
38.0¢ 11297 45.0¢ 9200
36.0¢ 20 46.0¢ 15229
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 41.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.