kalshi Economics

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Cut 25bps
Closes Sep 16, 2026 (46d) 24h volume 46.6K Open interest 457.1K Event Fed decision in Sep 2026?
2%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 79 days · High 27% · Low 2% · 7d -50.0pp · 30d -66.7pp
27%2%

Other outcomes in this event

Hike 25bps
57% YES
24h vol 42.4K
Fed maintains rate
42% YES
24h vol 33.7K
Hike >25bps
2% YES
24h vol 222.2K
Cut >25bps
0% YES
24h vol 14.3K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing in a low likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at their September 2026 meeting, with a current YES price of 0.03, implying a probability of around 2%. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent rate hikes and ongoing efforts to combat inflation. The market is likely considering the potential impact of economic data releases and other macroeconomic factors on the Fed's decision-making process. A significant shift in these factors or changes in the Fed's monetary policy stance could cause the price to move up or down, potentially altering the perceived probability of a rate cut.
Generated Jul 30, 2026

Top of book

BidSizeAskSize
2.0¢ 40 3.0¢ 273699
1.0¢ 100759 4.0¢ 53072
5.0¢ 73777
6.0¢ 24020
7.0¢ 24321
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 2.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.