kalshi Economics

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Hike 25bps
Closes Sep 16, 2026 (46d) 24h volume 42.4K Open interest 267.1K Event Fed decision in Sep 2026?
57%
implied YES probability
+1.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 81 days · High 57% · Low 2% · 7d +16.3pp · 30d +50.0pp
57%2%

Other outcomes in this event

Fed maintains rate
42% YES
24h vol 33.7K
Cut 25bps
2% YES
24h vol 46.6K
Hike >25bps
2% YES
24h vol 222.2K
Cut >25bps
0% YES
24h vol 14.3K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing in a 52% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 25 basis points at their September 2026 meeting. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent inflation concerns and the ongoing economic recovery. The current price of 0.53 suggests that market participants are weighing the potential benefits of a rate hike against the risks of slowing growth. A significant shift in the labor market or inflation data could potentially move the price up, while a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity might push it down. As the meeting approaches, any new information about the Fed's monetary policy stance or the state of the economy would likely impact the market's probability assessment.
Generated Jul 30, 2026

Top of book

BidSizeAskSize
58.0¢ 70 59.0¢ 3010
57.0¢ 10163 60.0¢ 2290
56.0¢ 14896 61.0¢ 238
55.0¢ 25971 62.0¢ 483
54.0¢ 4005 63.0¢ 5017
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 58.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.