polymarket
Politics
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
50+ bps decrease
0%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 3% ·
Low 0%
· 7d -66.7pp
· 30d -85.7pp
How this market resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Fed meeting live updates: Anticipation builds with Fed expected to hike interest rates for first time in 3 years
Yahoo Finance · 17h ago
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Federal Reserve Expected to Raise Interest Rates
Bloomberg Politics · 2h ago
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I Will Keep Rating RH A Sell - As Long As Inflation And Interest Rates Are High
Seeking Alpha News · 4h ago
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BOJ set to raise interest rates to 31-year high as inflation risks loom
Reuters · 5h ago
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Market Falls Broadly; What Stocks Tend To Do Several Months After The Fed Hikes Rates
IBD · 10h ago
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