polymarket Politics

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

25 bps decrease
Closes Sep 16, 2026 (45d) 24h volume $208.9K Open interest $3.4M Event Fed Decision in September?
2%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 81 days · High 38% · Low 2% · 7d -46.4pp · 30d -58.4pp
38%2%

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

25 bps increase
60% YES
24h vol $197.9K
No change
38% YES
24h vol $108.6K
50+ bps increase
2% YES
24h vol $136.5K
50+ bps decrease
1% YES
24h vol $100.5K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is asking whether the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting. The current price of 0.02 implies a 2% probability that this will occur. This market will resolve to the amount of basis point change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate versus its pre-meeting level. Known facts informing the current price include the Fed's recent trend of keeping interest rates steady, as well as ongoing economic indicators and global events that may influence their decision. A decrease in interest rates would likely drive the YES price up, while a hold or increase would push it down.
Generated Jul 30, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.