polymarket
Politics
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
25 bps decrease
12%
implied YES probability
+1.1pp 24h
Price history
Last 36 days ·
High 38% ·
Low 3%
· 7d +275.8pp
· 30d +65.3pp
How this market resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
-
Will a 2026 Fed Interest Rate Increase Help or Hurt Retirees?
Motley Fool · 11h ago
-
Bitcoin sell-off toward $60K may resume as Japan hikes interest rates
Cointelegraph · 17h ago
Related stocks
Trade on Polymarket
Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate
public order-book and trading data for analysis.
Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.