polymarket
Politics
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Renan Santos
7%
implied YES probability
-1.3pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 17% ·
Low 5%
· 7d -28.0pp
· 30d -22.5pp
How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for Renan Santos' chances in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election currently assigns a 9% probability to his victory, reflected in a YES price of 0.09. This assessment is informed by known facts about Santos' political career and public support, as well as broader trends in Brazilian politics. The current price does not reflect any specific event or development that would significantly alter the market's expectations. A change in Santos' popularity or a shift in the political landscape could potentially drive the YES price up or down, while other factors such as changes in voter sentiment or opposition candidate emergence could also impact the market's assessment of his chances.
Generated Jul 27, 2026
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