Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

The prediction market for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election suggests that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a 62% chance of winning, as reflected in the current YES price of 0.62. This assessment is informed by known facts about the candidates and their relative strengths going into the election. The market's pricing does not take into account any potential external factors or events that may impact the outcome. A change in the perceived popularity or momentum of Lula da Silva, as well as any significant developments affecting his campaign, could cause the YES price to increase. Conversely, a shift in support towards another candidate or a scandal affecting Lula da Silva's campaign could lead to a decrease in the YES price.