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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Flávio Bolsonaro
24%
implied YES probability
-1.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 45% ·
Low 23%
· 7d -16.7pp
· 30d -22.8pp
How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Brazilian court convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro of seeking US help in father’s legal battle
Investing.com · 7h ago
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