Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

The prediction market for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election asks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will win the election. The current price of 0.24 implies a 24% probability that he will emerge victorious. This assessment is informed by known facts about Bolsonaro's political standing and the general sentiment surrounding his candidacy. Any significant developments or changes in public opinion that could impact Bolsonaro's chances of winning would likely cause the YES price to move up, while a decline in support or emergence of strong challengers could lead to a decrease in the price. The market will resolve on October 4, 2026, based on the outcome of the election, and if the result is not known by June 30, 2027, it will default to "Other".