Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market for Gavin Newsom's chances of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election currently indicates a 13% probability, reflected in a YES price of 0.13. This assessment is informed by known facts such as Newsom's current political standing and his potential to secure the Democratic nomination. The market will resolve on November 7, 2028, when all three designated sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) declare a winner. If a consensus cannot be reached by January 20, 2029, the market will instead resolve based on who is inaugurated as President. Any significant changes in Newsom's political fortunes or developments that impact his candidacy could influence the price of this market, potentially driving it up if such news is positive or down if it is negative.