polymarket
Politics
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
JD Vance
20%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 21% ·
Low 15%
· 7d +0.5pp
· 30d +2.0pp
How this market resolves
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for JD Vance's chances of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election currently indicates a 20% probability, reflected in a YES price of 0.20. This assessment is informed by known facts about Vance's political career and public profile, as well as the current state of the election landscape. The market's pricing reflects the uncertainty surrounding the outcome, with various factors influencing the likelihood of Vance's victory or defeat. A change in the market's perception of Vance's campaign momentum, voter sentiment, or opponent strength could potentially drive the price up or down, while any significant developments in these areas would likely impact the YES price.
Generated Jul 26, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.