Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning the 2028 US Presidential Election currently prices her victory at a 7% probability, reflected in a YES price of 0.07. This assessment is informed by known facts about Ocasio-Cortez's political career and current events, but does not account for unforeseen developments or future announcements that could impact her candidacy. The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all declare a winner in the election, with any disputes resolved by the inauguration date on January 20, 2029. A change in Ocasio-Cortez's political fortunes, such as a significant shift in public opinion or a major endorsement, could potentially drive the price up or down. Conversely, news that challenges her viability as a candidate, like a scandal or internal party opposition, could lead to a decrease in the YES price.