Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The prediction market on whether China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 currently prices in a 4% probability of such an event occurring. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current state of relations between China and Taiwan, including ongoing tensions and military posturing. The price would likely increase if there were to be a significant escalation in these tensions or a notable shift in China's military capabilities that could facilitate an invasion. Conversely, a decrease in tensions or a diplomatic breakthrough between the two nations could lead to a decline in the YES price.