polymarket
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
implied YES probability
+0.6pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 11% ·
Low 6%
· 7d -8.2pp
· 30d -4.3pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Recent news mentioning this market
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BMW cuts 2026 outlook on China downturn, Iran war
Investing.com · 13h ago
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Taiwan Slams China’s ‘Gangster’ Tactics as Kenya Detains Scholar
Bloomberg Politics · 19h ago
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