Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

The prediction market is asking whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed by July 31. The current price implies a 0% probability of this event occurring. Known facts informing the current price are the existing transit call data and the criteria for determining the effective closure of the strait, which is a 7-day moving average of less than or equal to 10 arrivals of ships. If IMF PortWatch publishes such data before the listed date, the market will resolve accordingly. Any changes in transit call data that would result in a 7-day moving average above 10 would likely cause the price to decrease, while data indicating a lower average would likely increase the price.