What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026?

Before Sep 1, 2026

Closes Sep 01, 2026 (30d) 24h volume 48.3K Open interest 587.4K Event Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

implied YES probability

-0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 19 days · High 18% · Low 3% · 7d 0.0pp

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing a crypto market structure bill becoming law before September 1, 2026 at around 4% probability, with a YES price of 0.04. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the ongoing legislative process and the potential for compromise on the issue. The current price may be influenced by factors such as the pace of negotiations between lawmakers, the level of support from key stakeholders, and any changes in the political landscape that could impact the bill's passage. A significant shift in these dynamics would likely cause the YES price to move up or down accordingly, with a decrease in probability potentially driving the price lower and an increase in likelihood pushing it higher.

Generated Jul 29, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
3.0¢	1781	4.0¢	23508
2.0¢	1513	5.0¢	64759
1.0¢	12007	6.0¢	33175
		7.0¢	42704
		8.0¢	50065

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 3.5¢

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.