What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 33%, implying a 33% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (152d) 24h volume 2.5K Open interest 313.6K Event Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

33%

implied YES probability

+3.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 72% · Low 32% · 7d -12.8pp · 30d -12.8pp

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing a crypto market structure bill becoming law before January 1, 2027 at a probability of approximately 48%. This assessment is informed by known facts such as ongoing legislative efforts and discussions surrounding the topic. The current price does not reflect any specific endorsement or opposition to the proposed legislation, but rather reflects the collective sentiment of market participants. A change in the likelihood of the bill becoming law before the specified deadline would likely impact the YES price, with a decrease indicating reduced confidence in its passage and an increase suggesting increased optimism.

Generated Jul 22, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
31.0¢	169	32.0¢	11
30.0¢	725	33.0¢	699
29.0¢	3500	34.0¢	107
27.0¢	1063	35.0¢	887
25.0¢	1984	36.0¢	2500

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 31.5¢

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.