polymarket
Politics
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
implied YES probability
+1.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 30% ·
Low 12%
· 7d +13.8pp
· 30d 0.0pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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