Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

The prediction market on whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 currently prices in a 26% probability of such an event occurring. This assessment is informed by known facts, including ongoing tensions between the two nations and the potential for military action to address perceived security threats or respond to provocative actions. The current price would likely increase if there were a significant escalation in hostilities or rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran, or if the U.S. were to take steps to mobilize its military assets in preparation for potential conflict. Conversely, a decrease in tensions or a diplomatic resolution to outstanding issues could lead to a decline in the YES price. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources by December 31, 2026.