Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

The prediction market is asking whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will effectively be closed by August 31. The current price of 0.10 implies a 10% probability that this event will occur. Known facts informing the current price include the ongoing tensions and potential risks in the region, which may impact shipping traffic through the strait. A significant increase in the number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would likely drive the price down, while a decrease or stagnation in transit calls could push the price up. The market will resolve once IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or when data has been published for the listed date and no such value is reached.