Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The prediction market is currently pricing a 3% probability that China will invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026. The current price of 0.03 indicates that the majority of participants do not expect an invasion to occur within this timeframe. Known facts informing the current price include ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan, as well as China's historical claims to sovereignty over Taiwan. A significant change in the price would likely require a notable escalation or de-escalation of these tensions, such as a major diplomatic breakthrough or a military buildup on either side. The market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by the specified deadline, and otherwise will resolve to "No".