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Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Closes Sep 30, 2026 (104d) 24h volume $9.8K Open interest $213.7K Event Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
3%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 8% · Low 2% · 7d -1.7pp · 30d -35.6pp
8%2%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.