polymarket Politics

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic Party
Closes Nov 03, 2026 (93d) 24h volume $242.3K Open interest $2.8M Event Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
44%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 50% · Low 42% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d +4.8pp
50%42%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Other outcomes in this event

Republican Party
56% YES
24h vol $1.8K
Party A
0% YES
24h vol —
Party B
0% YES
24h vol —
Party C
0% YES
24h vol —
Party D
0% YES
24h vol —
Party E
0% YES
24h vol —
Party F
0% YES
24h vol —
Other
0% YES
24h vol —

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market for the Democratic Party controlling the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections currently shows a YES price of 0.45, indicating a 44% probability that the Democrats will control the Senate. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the current political landscape and polling data. The market's current price reflects the collective opinion of participants, who are weighing various factors including party affiliation, voter sentiment, and potential electoral outcomes. A change in the YES price would likely occur if new information emerges that significantly shifts the balance of power or alters the perceived likelihood of a Democratic Senate majority.
Generated Jul 03, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.